Who Benefits Most from the Supreme Court Opening on the GOP Side? Jeb Bush

The Republican primary thus far has been essentially a kid's game - albeit in the manner of Lord of the Flies. It's been all Id - shouting and saying naughty things because you're mad as hell. If there's been any allegiance to traditional political calculation at all, it has been so mixed with Id as to be unrecognizable: all Id is Trump; mixed Id is Cruz.

With the vacancy on the Court, however, fun and games have ended. The GOP have a rather dim prospect: accept an Obama candidate now, or take your chances on the election - by no means a done deal, and perhaps not even a contest in which they are favored. If you delay now and lose the election, then it's pretty much all over: you can perhaps delay a Supreme Court vote for 11 months (I doubt they will), but you damn sure can't delay it for 5 years. It's win, or see 40 years of judicial activism completely smashed for a generation. So, you see, they have to put the Id away, not because they want to, but because that super ego is now wagging its mighty finger.

OK, forgive the psycho-babble, but the point remains: shit just got ree-aahhhl. That means Trump will suffer, not least because the prospect of Trump appointing an anti-abortion, socially conservative judge is a joke, and everybody knows it. He satisfies some deep yelly impulse, but deep down they all know he's not serious. So, then, the evangelicals would break for Cruz, right? Wrong. As much as Cruz is an authentic conservative nutbag (unlike Trump, who is a neo-fascist blowhard), he's a little too crazy to be electable by a broad public. Rubio has finally revealed his true self as a barely competent tyro. So...

Bush to the rescue. Kasich will be in the mix, too, but as the VP who can help carry the dreaded Obama-backing Ohio. Florida and Ohio - two reliable and mostly pliant conservatives, and suddenly Bush's supposed cred with Latinos will suddenly make sense.

That's my prediction: Bush is in this mix more than ever, even if he shows poorly in SC. It'll take until super Tuesday for the reality of the situation to cover the right wing airwaves. It's coming.