General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsTrump won ALL 44 SC Republican Delegates.
Ever single one.
Nobody else got a single delegate from South Carolina.
I am altering my prediction. If it's not a two person race by March 1, Trump is the winner hands down.
Xipe Totec
(43,890 posts)What I call the top turd.
The rest of them hate his guts.
MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)The only way to stop Trump is to convince Cruz to drop out before Super Tuesday.
That ain't happening.
Xipe Totec
(43,890 posts)Politicalboi
(15,189 posts)Donald Dump wins hands down. You can bet your Goldman Sachs.
MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)Trump's support nationwide tops out just below 40%.
hifiguy
(33,688 posts)HRH has disastrous, Nixon-like "trust" and "truthfulness" ratings, alienates the left/liberal base, has zero appeal to independents and the Republican base will do everything short of coming out of graves just to vote against her.
People are sick to death of the professional, wheeler-dealer political class and no one represents that corrupt class better than she does. Trumpolini is not a part of that class in the public mind.
MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)nominate Trump.
Now the morons are actually going to do it.
hifiguy
(33,688 posts)could beat an incumbent president regardless of the problems Carter was having. I was there.
MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)Egnever
(21,506 posts)And Raygun had the bit down pretty well.
Trump is a clown that is taken seriously by a small portion of america while the rest point at him and laugh. We should be happy this clown is winning.
If not for the large field he is running in he would not even be winning their primary the anyone but trump vote in sc was almost 70%
30% of the republican party will not make a president. That is completely ignoring their demographic problem in the general.
NYC Liberal
(20,136 posts)and Sanders has barely been vetted. Sanders is the GOP dream candidate. They are dying for him to be the nominee.
Duckhunter935
(16,974 posts)Election I would think. Pissed off Republicans and Democrats will stay home.
LonePirate
(13,429 posts)Let's give all of Bush's and Kasich's supporters to Rubio for instance. That still doesn't put him at against Trump and Cruz. I suspect Carson's supporters will split between Trump and Cruz. So that puts all three within a few points of each other. If Cruz drops out, then I suspect most of his supporters will flock to Trump as he is the outsider and not Rubio. If Rubio drops out, I suspect most of his supporters jump to Trump because only Cruz supporters like Cruz. The Repub establishment could make deals with Trump. They can't make deals with Cruz. Either way, Trump pushes well past 50% but as SC proved, he does not need to be above 50% to win almost all of the delegates.
CommonSenseDemocrat
(377 posts)LonePirate
(13,429 posts)underpants
(182,861 posts)MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)Trump is on track to take at least 75% of the delegates on Super Tuesday and given the current field, he could take them all.
And that's all with 34% of the vote.
The only way they can push him out with their wonky Republican math proportional apportionment of delegates is a two man race. Cruz must leave because the Republican leadership will not abide Cruz and prefer Trump over Cruz. Rubio is the last shot they have and it has to be one on one between he and Trump to insure Trump doesn't win.
If it's not a two person race by March 1, it's over. Trump wins by basic attrition with support from 34% of Republican voters.
Bigmack
(8,020 posts)are 53%... Huffpo average of a whole bunch of polls.
Trump's unfavorable... 57%
Bernie 38% unfavorable.
exboyfil
(17,865 posts)http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/20/upshot/how-trump-could-pile-up-delegates-with-modest-percentages-of-the-vote.html
How low? In a true three-way race with Marco Rubio as the second-strongest candidate, Mr. Trump might need to win only about 39 percent of the popular vote to take an outright majority of the delegates to the Republican National Convention.
CommonSenseDemocrat
(377 posts)If it's just Cruz Rubio and Trump, Trump still gets a plurality.
brooklynite
(94,679 posts)...looks like a Trump sweep.
CommonSenseDemocrat
(377 posts)Agree with your prediction though
MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)The proportional portion was by Congressional District. About half the delegates were awarded to whomsoever wins.
Trump took 'em all and won, getting 100% of the delegates.
CommonSenseDemocrat
(377 posts)There was no way the plurality winner did not take at least 75% (wrong on this figure) of the delegates.
Edit: actually 64% mathematically, and only in the special case of the winner routing 1 CD, while the rest barely go for another candidate.
Shandris
(3,447 posts)...winning both NH and SC. That doesn't sound right to me but I can't think of a good approach to doublecheck it. If anyone knows a source/method, I'd be highly interested in a fact-check.