General Discussion

kentuck

(111,103 posts) Mon Feb 22, 2016, 09:03 AM Feb 2016

Trump's illusion of victory...

United they fail - divided they fall. That is the dilemma facing the Republican Party.

Donald Trump beats everyone in the Republican field rather handily, but he seems to top out at about 33% of the Republican primary voters. The other 4 or 5 candidates split the remaining votes. In the "winner takes all" primaries, like SC, 33% looks like an over-whelming majority. But, is it?

Will Trump ever be able to break 50% in any of the primaries coming up? So long as the Republican Party is divided and there are 5 or 6 people still in the race, Trump will probably continue to win. In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.

If Trump were running against only one other opponent, what would his numbers be? Are his numbers an illusion? If the race were between Trump and Rubio, or Trump and Cruz, or Trump and Kasich, would he garner more than 50% of the Republican vote? I'm not sure.

It is the division within the Republican Party that is making Donald Trump look strong. It doesn't appear that they will figure it out anytime soon. An illusion cannot win a general election, which is fine with the majority of Americans.

7 replies

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Trump's illusion of victory... (Original Post) kentuck Feb 2016 OP

scary stuff Karmavore1 Feb 2016 #1

Well, you very well might have a good argument there, kentuck. longship Feb 2016 #2

I think it makes him look stronger than he actually is... kentuck Feb 2016 #3

One thing for sure, it is going to be interesting, one for the history books. longship Feb 2016 #4

Yep. kentuck Feb 2016 #6

Rubio and Cruz got 21 or 22% or whatever it was in SC The2ndWheel Feb 2016 #5

That's true but... kentuck Feb 2016 #7

Karmavore1

(4 posts)

1. scary stuff

Reply to kentuck (Original post)

Mon Feb 22, 2016, 09:40 AM

Feb 2016

I had just finished reading an article that put tRump at 50% in very liberal Massachusetts...

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/donald-trump-massive-lead-massachusetts-poll

If this blowhard can win by such a massive number in that state, I fear for results from others!

longship

(40,416 posts)

2. Well, you very well might have a good argument there, kentuck.

Reply to kentuck (Original post)

Mon Feb 22, 2016, 09:59 AM

Feb 2016

The question is: Is Trump's perpetual 30-some percent support a result of so many GOP competitors? Or is that his actual ceiling?

The winnowing of GOP candidates in the face of little movement in his support suggests the latter, that he might have reached his ceiling.

Good one, kentuck! We'll know for sure soon.

kentuck

(111,103 posts)

3. I think it makes him look stronger than he actually is...

Reply to longship (Reply #2)

Mon Feb 22, 2016, 10:05 AM

Feb 2016

In the Republican Party, there is never unanimous support when one challenges the establishment.

longship

(40,416 posts)

4. One thing for sure, it is going to be interesting, one for the history books.

Reply to kentuck (Reply #3)

Mon Feb 22, 2016, 10:08 AM

Feb 2016

My best to you.

kentuck

(111,103 posts)

6. Yep.

Reply to longship (Reply #4)

Mon Feb 22, 2016, 10:13 AM

Feb 2016

The2ndWheel

(7,947 posts)

5. Rubio and Cruz got 21 or 22% or whatever it was in SC

Reply to kentuck (Original post)

Mon Feb 22, 2016, 10:10 AM

Feb 2016

You can make the same case for them. Are those numbers an illusion? Maybe they couldn't break 40% if it was just one of them against one other person, who knows.

You can throw around hypothetical situations all day. Plus you can make numbers say anything you want, depending on what argument you're making. Another way of looking at it could be, Trump has fewer people to convince to vote for him in order to break 50%.

kentuck

(111,103 posts)

7. That's true but...

Reply to The2ndWheel (Reply #5)

Mon Feb 22, 2016, 10:32 AM

Feb 2016

Trump's numbers have not gone up as these lesser known candidates have dropped out. Rubio seems to have benefited the most.

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