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erpowers

(9,350 posts)
Sat Mar 5, 2016, 08:25 PM Mar 2016

Donald Trump has not brought ‘millions and millions’ of people to the Republican Party

Snip

We can also estimate how many of those people came out because of Bernie Sanders, the unexpected candidate who’s doing well with new voters on the Democratic side. In states where there were enough new voters for their vote preferences to be statistically significant, about 563,000 of those new voters backed Sanders. It’s safe to assume that he got about another 100,000 from the states where there were too few new voters to break out this measure separately. So, figure that Sanders spurred about 650,000 people go to the polls. That's out of 6.2 million total voters. Impressive.

On the Republican side, the math is trickier. First and foremost, exit and entrance polls in most states didn’t ask Republicans whether it was their first time voting, only doing so in New Hampshire and Iowa. In those two states, about 127,000 people were voting for the first time, and about 42,000 of those were voting for Trump. That’s actually lower than the number of new voters in Iowa and New Hampshire that backed Sanders; he got about 68,000 votes from new voters in those two states.

That’s the second reason the math is tricky. Sanders has accrued 37.5 percent of all of the Democratic votes, to Trump’s 34.5 percent of the Republican one. (All vote result data is from the irreplaceable U.S. Election Atlas.) Sanders is trailing in the delegate count by a lot, and Trump is winning by a lot — but there are two Democrats and four Republicans. And there are four Republicans now; just over a month ago, there were still a dozen to split up the vote. In Iowa and New Hampshire, Trump got 30 and 38 percent of the new vote, respectively. Sanders got 59 percent and 78 percent.

So it seems safe to assume that, even with increased Republican turn-out, the number of new voters voting for Trump isn't much higher than the number backing Sanders. It’s hard to believe that it has reached 1 million, much less “millions and millions.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/03/05/donald-trump-has-not-brought-millions-and-millions-of-people-to-the-republican-party/

This is not meant to be a pro-Bernie post; I just thought the most interesting parts of the article were the ones discussing Bernie Sanders and new voters. My main reason for posting a link to the article is that it examines the idea that Donald Trump is bringing new voters to the Republican Party and many of those voters are coming from the Democratic Party.

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