Are We at a Demographic Inflection Point? (new migration trends)
Old people have been moving to Florida for the past several years, and old people will move there for the next few years. Immigrants have been streaming in from Mexico, and they will continue to do so. You get the idea.
Most of the time these forecasts prove right. But sometimes there are inflection points, times when some trends stop and others begin. My read of recent demographic data suggests we may be at such a point right now.
My prediction is that we won't ever again see the heavy Latin immigration we saw between 1983 and 2007, which averaged 300,000 legal immigrants and perhaps as many illegals annually. Mexican and other Latin birthrates fell more than two decades ago. And Mexico, source of 60 percent of Latin immigrants, is now a majority-middle-class country.
Asian immigration may continue, primarily from China and India, especially if we have the good sense to change our laws to let in more high-skill immigrants. But the next big immigration source, I think, will be sub-Saharan Africa. We may end up with prominent politicians who actually were born in Kenya.
http://www.sunshinestatenews.com/story/are-we-demographic-inflection-point
The author does not give much justification for thinking that Sub-Saharan Africa will be the big immigration source, so that's a little hard to see. If Hispanic immigration continues to fall and that from Asia remains fairly constant, there will be a new ethnic look to immigration regardless of how much new immigration comes from Africa.
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