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Bucky

(54,003 posts)
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 07:27 PM Mar 2016

Could Jeb be cooking up a grand deal w/Kasich, Cruz, & Rubio?

Jeb's meeting with all three in Miami this week, before the polling takes place in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Illniois, and Missouri. I know this sounds crazy, but I wonder if [font size="3"]![/font] is cooking up a grand bargain of some sort to stop Trump's winning streak. But could he get them to agree to throw their supporters to each other in their weakest states?

Here's where the polling numbers lay according to RealClearPolitics.com

North Carolina - http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nc/north_carolina_republican_presidential_primary-3491.html
41% - Trump
27% - Cruz
14% - Rubio
11% - Kasich


Ohio - http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/oh/ohio_republican_presidential_primary-4077.html
38% - Trump - [font size="1" color="#808080"]CNN says 41%[/font]
32% - Kasich - [font size="1" color="#808080"]CNN says 35%[/font]
16% - Cruz . - [font size="1" color="#808080"]CNN says 15%[/font]
09% - Rubio - [font size="1" color="#808080"]CNN says 7%[/font]


Illinois - http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/il/illinois_republican_presidential_primary-4251.html
32% - Trump
22% - Cruz
21% - Rubio
18% - Kasich


Florida - http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_republican_presidential_primary-3555.html
45% - Trump - [font size="1" color="#808080"]CNN says 40%[/font]
22% - Rubio - [font size="1" color="#808080"]CNN says 24%[/font]
18% - Cruz . - [font size="1" color="#808080"]CNN says 19%[/font]
08% - Kasich - [font size="1" color="#808080"]CNN says 5%[/font]


Missouri - no polling available since fuckin' August

Grand Bargain A would look like this: Rubio & Kasich tell their supporters in North Carolina (72 delegates) to vote for Cruz (the poor bastards). That'd be Cruz - 52% vs Trump 41%
Cruz and Kasich throw their support to Rubio in Florida (99 delegates) ergo Rubio 48% vs Trump 45% (or 40% by CNN)
Cruz and Rubio throw their votes to Kasich in Ohio (66 delegates) yielding Kasich 57% vs Trump 38% (or 41% by CNN)
It's all too close in Illinois (69 delegates) to cut deals like that... everyone thinks he's the AntiTrump

Obvious problem with this is that Cruz doesn't play well with others. Also, Rubio is playing an especially weak hand right now and has a history of backstabbing his political benefactors. So this is all pretty implausible. But Fear of a Orange Planet may start... um... trumping their basic selfish instincts.

Grand Bargain B would be simpler and not require controlling Cruz (ha ha, get it? Cruz control?! I slay me!) Rubio throws votes to Kasich in Ohio & Illinois (135 delegates) and Kasich throws back votes to Rubio in Florida & North Carolina (171 delegates). Kasich gets less, but he's behind Rubio in one of his states and frankly Rubio is dead if he doesn't get a deal. Bonus: this would be the beginning of the draft Ryan movement that Mitt Romney is pushing for in the convention (and deals Cruz out of a seat at the table).

The numbers, however are much iffier in Plan B and the whole idea that voters can be commanded to vote strategically is sociologically flawed. But in each case, you don't need 100% cooperation, just enough people who already pretty much hate Donald Trump willing to follow their leaders... which I contend most Republicans are far far more willing to conform to than Democrats ever could be. They are conformists by nature and by culture and are terribly worried about what Trump is doing to their stupid party. The potential gain of denying two or three states that Trump would otherwise win may be incentive enough to try. Ohio and Florida are "winner-take-all" and Illinois is a "winner-take-most" primary.

This is just a thought experiment. I don't particularly believe in this plan's workability or plausibility, but it's an intriguing idea anyway for a Frankenstein trying to stop his runaway monster. At the very least I expect Jeb plans to talk Kasich or Rubio into dropping out before Saturday.

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CanonRay

(14,101 posts)
1. ...and Trump gets pissed off an runs as a 3rd party
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 07:28 PM
Mar 2016

thereby guaranteeing the White House to the Dems. Sounds like a plan!

Bucky

(54,003 posts)
4. Not Trump's and Not Cruz's, no. But someone supporting Rubio can't be a self directed thinker
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 07:43 PM
Mar 2016

Despite the stampede of wildebeests toward The Donald Show, I think there's still quite a number of conformist Republicans out there who are voting for Kasich & Rubio because they sort of like being led around by a party-designated spokesmodel. The ones who vote Republican out of fear rather than out of hatred are just as scared of Trump as they are of Hillary. It's a big dumb tent they have, and its about equally divided between those who like to all think alike and those who just don't think.

JFKDem62

(383 posts)
7. It will be interesting to see what happens. But I don't think there is a Republican party any more.
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 08:21 PM
Mar 2016

It is gone.

napi21

(45,806 posts)
5. No matter what devious things they plan, they won't work, and IF
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 07:45 PM
Mar 2016

the party leaders pull some idiotic caper to take the nomination away from Trump, they'll guarantee a WIN for the Dems. Trumps loyal followers WON'T support a hand picked nominee. They'll either stay home, or write in Trumps name. Those "party leaders" are too stupid to recognize that the voters hate THEM & THEIR LEADERSHIP IDEAS. Maybe a massive LOSS in both houses of Congress just might get the message across.

yellowcanine

(35,699 posts)
6. Nah. You can't get voters to do that. Some delegates will not even fall in line
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 08:09 PM
Mar 2016

after the first ballot. Delegates are only pledged for the first ballot. After that they can go where they want. Some will stick with their candidate's wishes but some won't.

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