General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsDems have a chance to take back the House, if they can field the right candidates
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/trump-gop-house-majority-jeopardy-221004Democrats already had reasonable odds of flipping a dozen or so House seats. But DCCC Chairman Ben Ray Luján recently started highlighting reach districts, like those of Rep. John Mica in Florida and Rep. Steve Knight in California, that broaden Democrats target list enough to take back the chamber if local candidates can take advantage of the sudden opportunity. Strategists are now turning their attention to moderate suburbs around Detroit, Minneapolis, Washington and other areas where House Democrats have struggled in recent years but Trump has already shown weakness.
(snip)
One major question mark for Democrats is whether they have the candidates to ride a wave, if Trump generates one in their favor. With the filing deadline approaching in Colorado, Democrats still dont have a candidate in GOP Rep. Scott Tiptons district, which the party targeted as recently as 2012 and which has a substantial Latino population. Bill Phillips, the Democratic candidate in Micas Florida district one of the seats Luján mentioned last week had less than $20,000 in his campaign account to start the year. In key California districts, Democrats face primaries and feuding between local activists and the national party.
(snip)
Democrats need to net at least 30 seats to retake the House the same number they flipped to take the majority in the 2006 wave. But John Lapp, who ran the DCCCs independent expenditure program that year, said this year was starting to feel familiar. The type of people who came in during 2006 when the campaign broke late and they were able to ride that wave I think its the early stages of that, Lapp said.
A potential path toward 30 seats, once thought to be outside the realm of possibility, has become clearer for Democrats in recent days. Luján ducked when asked whether Democrats could win back the House at a news conference last week, but his committee is actively preparing to compete in districts that werent on the radar months ago. Democrats are targeting seats with high numbers of independent voters, socially moderate voters, millennials and minority voters, Luján said.
We are going to keep recruiting through filing day because of this momentum that has been created by Donald Trump, Luján added.
---
Let's see if the Dems can actually snatch victory from the jaws of defeat for a change. Everyone knows the current GOP-led congress is a disaster and needs to go.
global1
(25,270 posts)looks like we threw in the towel already for 2016.
merrily
(45,251 posts)tech3149
(4,452 posts)It's not bad enough that they allow so many uncontested elections, they actively fight against any progressive candidate to sell us some Republican lite like Bob Casey.
Fast Walker 52
(7,723 posts)tech3149
(4,452 posts)Back when I moved back home (2002) I tried to get involved in the party. They were fucking ghosts. Even when you could get face time to try and motivate the party they would just blow you off as some interloper that would steal their power.
We had a great candidate to replace Sen Single Bullet and Schumer and Rendell said that Casey was our only choice.
I will not accept someone telling me that my views are less valuable than someone else.
Fast Walker 52
(7,723 posts)which might be understandable if the people in power were successful, but when they keep blowing it, it outrageous.
Nice avatar by the way.
merrily
(45,251 posts)Fast Walker 52
(7,723 posts)it's a tough game I know, but the Dems never seem to do as well as they should.
madville
(7,412 posts)10-15 seats in the House (It will likely stay Republican) and possibly 4-6 to maybe retake the majority in the Senate.
2016 will really just hinge on how enthusiastic voters are for the Democratic nominee which is likely Hillary at this point unless she gets in legal trouble or has a health issue pop up that they can't hide.
The campaign committees have to put out positive messages for fundraising and enthusiasm, they always do. Remember when they were saying the Democrats could take back the House in 2012 and 2014?
Any gains will likely be given back in 2018 though if there is a Democrat in the White House, that's just how it works with mid-terms. 3/4 of the Senate seats up in 2018 are currently held by Democrats so some of them will be vulnerable. So 2020 could see Democrats trying to make up the same amount of ground they currently need to now even with some modest gains in 2016. It's always an ebb and flow.
corbettkroehler
(1,898 posts)He's a progressive fighting to correct everything wrong with the corporate influence which DWS has invited on the DNC.
I have donated to him multiple times.
tabasco
(22,974 posts)I see no great successes for the Democratic party.
Fast Walker 52
(7,723 posts)why is DWS still in power????
KG
(28,752 posts)until losing has adverse consequences for those in charge, expect to continue to lose.