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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsCan Trump Become So Unpopular That Democrats Take Back The House?
Its one of the most controversial things to say on Capitol Hill, sparking looks of shock and disbelief: The House majority is in play this fall.
For almost five years, ever since state legislatures and commissions finished drawing the new congressional districts for this decade, the Republican stranglehold on the House has been taken for granted because of the precise targeting that fortified GOP-held swing seats to seemingly withstand the toughest political climate. Even leading Democrats, just two months ago at their annual issues retreat in Baltimore, declined to predict anything close to winning the 30 seats they need in November to reclaim the majority.
Then Republicans started voting in their presidential primary, with Donald Trump taking a commanding lead.
By last week, as House Democrats showcased several dozen top recruits on Capitol Hill and at K Street fundraisers, the tone had finally begun to shift. Trump has become so unpopular among key constituencies, including the growing suburbs that are home to several dozen Republican members, that some independent analysts, political strategists and a few Democrats say that anything might be possible come Election Day.
People are now beginning to understand that things could set up could set up to give us a shot at the majority. Theyre beginning to understand thats a possibility, because of Mr. Trump. But in any event, they understand were going to gain seats, said Rep. Denny Heck (D-Wash.), who is helping lead the recruiting effort.
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/can-trump-become-so-unpopular-that-democrats-take-back-the-house/2016/03/29/34ff8176-f5c4-11e5-8b23-538270a1ca31_story.html
jwirr
(39,215 posts)tularetom
(23,664 posts)You can expect to see the lowest turnout in presidential elections in decades. Nobody is going to be excited enough to come out and vote for either of them. And as a result, the down ballot elections will favor the incumbents.
No, IMO the house is safe for the R's. The Senate on the other hand may not be, based on sheer numbers of Republican seats up for grabs.
Jarqui
(10,126 posts)they'd let that happen.
Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)With fuck ups like today's, he really might be denied at the convention.
davidn3600
(6,342 posts)The way the districts are drawn, you would need a large amount of Republicans to sit out the entire election.
Plus the only Democrats you will get to win in these battleground districts are moderates. And if you have a leader like Pelosi again, she'll hang them out to dry again and get blown out in 2018.
madville
(7,412 posts)Trump vs. Clinton. It very well could be Cruz vs. Sanders or Ryan vs. Biden at this point.
Clinton as the nominee is their best chance to do well in the House with Trump on their ticket, she will motivate Republicans to come out and vote against her and down-ticket Democrats even if they don't care for Trump.
edhopper
(33,587 posts)DWS has not set up a infrastructure to take seats that might be vulnerable with Trump as nominee.
She only seems to care about incumbents.