didn't have it sewn up but it looked pretty good (looked like he was about 25 short but could easily buy 25 votes)

Since then, it's eroded.

You have to be very careful to look at each states delegate rules in order to project.

Now assuming he doesn't break 50% by the time New York rolls around, he's looking at falling short by more than 100.

If they persist like they have been, they might get him to 150 or 200 short. That gets much tougher to "buy" on the first ballot.

piece on Bernie's unlikely probability of getting the Dem nomination had asked what Sam thought about Trump's chances and Sam responded that he would run some numbers.

Apparently he has and this is a result. He also noted in an earlier post last week that he would be on a low-posting regimen for the duration of the primaries because he really believes that both contests have essentially been decided. I'm glad to see him participating in the primaries though, whatever he believes. Thanks for this heads-up!

I know that WI looks bad for Trump, but NY is gonna be huge for him.

The GOP Donor Class does not care for Trump and it really does not matter what GOP voters thing. Ted Cruz has a slightly better shot, but in all likelihood, you are looking at either Kasich or Romney as the GOP nominee.

Imagine in 2008 that the super delegates had all gone for Hillary instead of PBO, even though he earned more pledged delegates.

That would be hilarious.

I sincerely grieve for them.
Must be quite a burden for the sane elements of the Republican Party.

new polls showing he is very strong in the NorthEast (NY PA) GOP Primaries which he will win and those two are WTA... he probably wont win WI, but he is closing again on Cruz there in the last two polls..... If he is within under 100 delegates or has 1237 and they ratfuck him out of it there will be blood (maybe not literally) but can you imagine if in 2008 the same thing happened to us? It would have been destructive and wrong.. even though i dont agree with the GOP voters.. they should be able to choose their nominee as we should.... so i still think he will be the nominee at the end of the day... this way when he loses .. their voters will probably still stay with the GOP..... for 2020 , if its either Hillary or Bernie as President... i believe Cruz and Kasich will run against an incumbent President and if Cruz doesnt make the Nom , then Kasich has a real shot at taking our incumbent down pretty fast.. especially if we get a recession in 2 or 3 years.. thats just my .02... i could be totally wrong