If you look at the bottom of that page, you'll see their estimate for how the redrawing of boundaries that was proposed then blocked in 2013 to decrease MPs from 650 to 600 would have changed the 2015 result - it would have changed the Tory majority from 12 to 50.

A similar redrawing will go ahead in this parliament. The seat calculation at the top of the page is still for the old 650 seat parliament.

"user defined poll" with current percentages of support under the 2013 boundaries: conservatives still over 10 seats short of a majority, Labour still in the ascendant.

also for bookmarking

It didn't. Polls this early on in a government cycle are meaningless. There's council and PCC elections in May, people will be paying a lot more attention to those.

(who were acting like the UK's very own blue dogs). That's why the Tories ended up winning more seats than expected.

All the polls were drastically wrong, just like in 1992. Don't put your trust in polls, people lie to pollsters, especially if they're going to vote Tory.

caught everyone by surprise, and their defectors generally didn't break for Labour at constituency level.

But Labour's and the Tories' private polling showed that the Tories overtook Labour just after the 2014 party conference season, and stayed ahead. This muddied the waters, because the media ran with the public polls, spurring all sorts of babble about possible coalitions and enabling the Tories to make much mischief with that prospect.

From what I've read since, the public polls were methodologically flawed compared to the private ones, which included some important scene-setting questions before asking the key question.

Council elections at this stage in the electoral cycle often result in a backlash against the incumbent party, though back in January, at least, that didn't seem likely: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jan/22/labour-warned-to-expect-losses-in-may-local-elections

It'll be interesting to see how it pans out, since Labour's showing in the council elections that coincided with the last general election (for our US readers, different councils are elected at different stages in the electoral cycle) was pretty poor.

Who tend to be younger and more left wing than those who vote in every single election going.

I'd been looking for a UK poll aggregator for some time, precisely to see if the doomsayers' predictions about Corbyn had any validity. Real Clear Politics is good for US polls, despite the RW bias of its analysis, but I didn't know of a UK equivalent.

The next general election isn't until 2020, and he's been Labour leader for less than a year. So far his performance has been patchy, he's spent too much time obsessing with Trident and not enough time holding the Tories to account for omnishambles budget mark 2.

His performance has been better over steel, but he has missed a lot of open goals.


And if England win Euro 2016 Cameron could easily be swept back into power.