It may too soon to tell, but so far North Carolina GOP governor Pat McCrory’s signing of a sweeping anti-LGBT law hasn’t been a great help to his re-election campaign. It would be ironic — and just desserts — if a cynical political move to save his campaign actually doomed it.

All winter McCrory was slightly ahead or tying with Democratic attorney general Roy Cooper in the polls, but since his signing of HB2 several weeks ago — and since the tremendous backlash across the country and around the world — Cooper now has a lead over McCrory by several percentage points in several polls. At the same time, a new poll shows that HB2 is deeply unpopular with the state’s electorate, with only 36% of North Carolina voters supporting it.

Again, it’s early. And polls of the gubernatorial race may have little to do with HB2, as there’s been a lot of dissatisfaction with McCrory for many other reasons, his approval numbers having plummeted. But it’s certainly better than if McCrory saw a boost in support while anti-LGBT conservatives and groups like Family Research Council and demagogues like Ted Cruz have been heralding this bigoted law.

With the daily barrage of media attention, McCrory’s re-election could fast become a referendum on HB2, and if he goes down it may be because progressive activists and Democrats took a far different approach than LGBT activists did in Houston last November, when voters rescinded the Houston Equal Rights Ordinance.