over the vulgar talking yam (and relying on Floriduh to do it) (my apologies to Floridian DUers) is not...reassuring? Inspiring? A Done Thing? Especially in an era of rampant voter suppression (I wouldn't count on Wisconsin, for example).

Do better.

...this is saying that, at a minimum, Clinton wins with the most traditional Democratic States. This doesn't put NC, VA, OH, NH or CO into the mix yet.

Small, but has been blue for a while

There is no way, no way in hell, Hillary beats Trump by 13 points in Florida.

Look, I live in this state for almost 25 years. Trust me, that poll is off. Obama only won Florida over Romney by a point!

Hillary might win Florida....but it wont be by 13 points. There is no way I would put any money on that poll.

Drumpf has higher negatives with both Latinos and Women. He's destroying his chgances. But even if he loses by 5, the point is that Trump and the GOP are in big trouble.

She'll beat him by 20

not that I share their support for Clinton...is actually something in Political Science/Political Theory as the Structural Defeat problem...except that it's not a problem for us, we're on the winning side of it. It's what happens when one faction or party in a highly-partisan indirect-electing territorial-proportional system like the Electoral College gains a thorough enough advantage in enough territories that there is no path to defeat for them or a path to victory for the opposition.

Generally, in this circumstance, the structurally-victorious entity (here, the Democrats) wants to run the most full-throated candidate of their ideology...for two reasons, it presents them with opportunities to take the entire field-of-battle in terms of effecting their agenda and because it makes a comeback harder for the opposition by forcing that opposition to move further in their direction to be competitive than they would against moderates. That's because the only path out of it for opposition (that is, the GOP) is to start moderating and slashing away at their own ideology and co-opting that of the structural victor.

If this persists for 2-3 cycles...it's the death of modern conservatism. The new right will very much look like the "new left" of the 1980s that ultimately gelled into Clintonism, the DLC and Third Way. At that point, the structural advantage will relent and the new Overton Window will be framed in terms of what is moderate and contested between a progressive Democratic party and a centrist (more or less...possibly-center-right or even center-left) GOP.

He is sticking with the 'white only' electoral strategy that their own post mortem warned was a losing strategy. Of course, Donald as a 'populist' candidate may be able to make was a losing strategy into a winning one - at least for one more election before demographics make it impossible. We should not take Trump lightly. He is a right wing demagogue who will say anything to anyone and do it in a 'convincing' manner.

It's already been discussed in Michigan, Ohio, and elsewhere. Instead of having a state winner-take-all, they will break the EV's by congressional district. So say a state like Michigan is reliably blue and has 16 electoral votes. If you make it by congressional district, the Republicans would get 9 or 10 EVs from the state and the Democrats will get 6....even if the Democrat won the state.

Essentially it is gerrymandering the Presidential election.

And yes, that is perfectly Constitutional. In fact, Maine and Nebraska already do it. Any state can award their electoral votes any way they want.

House of Representatives rural members vote like it's Mississippi. Change State Houses or suffer the consequences.

This party is REALLY bad when it comes to local elections. It's platform is based almost solely on the federal level while the Republicans are based more on the state level.

And just like the electoral map won't go in the GOP favor for a long time, the Congressional map won't go in the Democrats favor for a long time either.

We can talk all we want about the demise of the Republicans in 50 years (Democrats might not be far behind either). But right now, they hold more power in the state and local level than either party has ever held the past century. Going by the political trends of the country, if Democrats win this year, the GOP will blow them out again in 2018, just in time for the next census. When you look at history, that's what tends to happen. It happened in 1994 and 2010.

We are literally looking at 10-20 years of deadlock ahead of us.

changing anytime soon. In rural Michigan the radio dial is filled with right wing talking heads and conservative religious preachers.I think that's common throughout the country.

The irony is that the GOPs post mortem warning literally told the base why it's losing and they're still going to go with the White Power candidate.

However many votes Romney got from women, I doubt Drumpf will capture nearly that.