This is going to be a "high-variance" election.

We start out ahead, both polls and betting odds show Hillary with a big lead right now. And she will probably win, but there could also be wild swings in either direction.

Trump is going to go scorched earth, so there is a chance that he'll be able to "Lyin' Ted" Hillary. On the other hand, he might hire some political consultants to remake his image totally, and pretend to be a reasonable human being. He is a TV performer after all. So, while the odds are in our favor, it's not a lock. And one problem is that the downside of a Trump presidency is enormous. This is not Mitt Romney or John McCain. This guy is insane.

But there is a lot of upside too. Trump could melt down spectacularly. There could be large numbers of GOP defections. If Trump's numbers stay the same or get even worse, we could make big gains in congress.

There's a big upside and a big downside. This is a big election.