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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsTrump might not really be bringing an influx of new GOP voters to the polls
Trump might not really be bringing an influx of new GOP voters to the polls
by Rob Garver, The Fiscal Times, Business Insider
http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-might-not-be-bringing-in-new-gop-voters-2016-5
"SNIP..............
However, new findings from GOP-leaning research and polling company Optimus strike at the underpinnings of Trumps claim. Researchers at Optimus examined voter records in two key battleground states and determined that there is little evidence to support the idea that high levels of participation in the primary election means many new voters will be casting ballots in November when Trump is expected to tee off against likely democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.
In Virginia, for example, generally viewed as a key battleground state, turnout for the 2016 Republican primary was nearly four times higher than it was in 2012. But when Optimus looked at voters at the individual level, they found that more than 90 percent of those who turned out were likely to have voted in general elections in the past. And much of the remainder were people who had either not been old enough to vote in previous elections, or who had recently moved to the state.
Only about 5.7 percent of the voters were eligible to vote in previous general elections but did not. That doesnt even come close to explaining the increased voter participation.
When we step back and look at this, it looks like the record primary turnout we saw in this election wasnt new voters coming out to join the Republican party, it looks like they are simply general election voters who dont typically show up in primaries, Optimus found. So it looks like there is not a large swath of new voters who flooded the elections in the primaries that are going to flood the polls in the general election: they already show up to general elections.
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1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)with respect to the Sanders "movement."
We are being played by the media.
Wounded Bear
(58,666 posts)the Trump thing has been reported on before.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)applegrove
(118,677 posts)lancer78
(1,495 posts)was 3% more of the electorate then than the senior vote in 2012.
PSPS
(13,601 posts)It's obvious to thinking people that, even if Trump were to get 100% of the GOP base's vote in the general election, he would lose very badly. Every year, month, day and hour that goes by, the demographics of the country are getting further away from the GOP. All that's left of the GOP "base" is racists, bigots, xenophobes, misogynists and billionaires. That's it, folks.
But the media can't have that. Since what we laughingly refer to as "news" these days is now just another profit center selling entertainment to sustain high advertising rates, their sole purpose is to create drama and controversy to get people to tune in. They must have a horse race. They must have "controversy." It's all there is anymore. So, they constantly portray this as a horse race. Tune in to see who's ahead!!1!!!11 Will Trump win? Tune in and watch!!11!! Trump said more crazy things!!11!! Tune in at 11 to see!!11!!
This should have been obvious to everyone when the "debates" were adorned with an opening indistinguishable from that of of a WWF show, and complete with real-time "color commentators" and even a music "bed."
LenaBaby61
(6,974 posts)But, he factually and statistically debunked the notion during his data download segment where Donald Trump claimed that he'd bought "millions of new voters into the GOP."
http://politicalmachination.com/republican-primary-turnout-analysis-donald-trump-creating-new-voters/