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malaise

(269,054 posts) Tue May 24, 2016, 05:52 PM May 2016

It's May 24 - what's this about NOAA - low percent anyway

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
335 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of showers and thunderstorms over the western Atlantic Ocean
near and northeast of the Bahamas is associated with the
interaction of an upper-level trough and a weakening cold front.
While development is not expected for the next couple of days,
environmental conditions could become more conducive for some
tropical or subtropical development by Friday. This area of
disturbed weather is expected to move slowly west-northwestward or
northwestward and gradually approach the southeastern United
States over the next few days. The next Special Tropical Weather
Outlook will be issued by 4 PM EDT Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

Forecaster Blake

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It's May 24 - what's this about NOAA - low percent anyway (Original Post) malaise May 2016 OP

Jeff Masters-A Memorial Day Weekend Tropical System For the Southeast U.S.? malaise May 2016 #1

malaise

(269,054 posts)

1. Jeff Masters-A Memorial Day Weekend Tropical System For the Southeast U.S.?

Reply to malaise (Original post)

Tue May 24, 2016, 06:34 PM

May 2016

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3308
<snip>
We're fast approaching the official June 1 start of the Atlantic hurricane season, and we already have an area of concern to watch for possible genesis of a tropical depression during the coming Memorial Day weekend. An area of low pressure is expected to form on Friday near to or a few hundred miles north of the Bahama Islands, and this low has the potential for tropical development as it moves northwest towards the Southeast U.S. coast. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) over the Bahamas are about 28 - 29°C (82 - 84°F), which is 1 - 2°C (1.8 - 3.6°F) above average. These waters are plenty warm enough to support formation of a tropical storm. Phase space diagrams from Florida State University have been consistently showing that this storm will be a symmetric warm core system, which is technical lingo for a storm that is tropical in nature, rather than subtropical or extratropical.

We're fast approaching the official June 1 start of the Atlantic hurricane season, and we already have an area of concern to watch for possible genesis of a tropical depression during the coming Memorial Day weekend. An area of low pressure is expected to form on Friday near to or a few hundred miles north of the Bahama Islands, and this low has the potential for tropical development as it moves northwest towards the Southeast U.S. coast. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) over the Bahamas are about 28 - 29°C (82 - 84°F), which is 1 - 2°C (1.8 - 3.6°F) above average. These waters are plenty warm enough to support formation of a tropical storm. Phase space diagrams from Florida State University have been consistently showing that this storm will be a symmetric warm core system, which is technical lingo for a storm that is tropical in nature, rather than subtropical or extratropical.

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