U.S. East Coast Is an Early Target at Hurricane Season’s Start

When the Atlantic hurricane season starts next week, the most active area might just be off the U.S. East Coast.

At this time of year, passing cold fronts that linger over waters warmed by the late spring sun can trigger tropical storms there or off the Gulf of Mexico or western Caribbean, said Jeff Masters, co-founder of Weather Underground in Ann Arbor, Michigan. An area of thunderstorms and a weakening cold front have a 50 percent chance of becoming a tropical or sub-tropical system in the next five days, the National Hurricane Center said Wednesday.

“Since these storms form close to land, they typically do not spend enough time over water to become major, land-falling hurricanes,” Masters said.

As the season and the summer progress, more of the Atlantic becomes a fertile breeding ground. The basin reaches its statistical peak for mayhem on Sept. 10, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami. And by late summer, when the seas between the Caribbean and Cape Verde islands become particularly active, systems called African waves move through every three or four days, creating ideal conditions.

“African tropical waves, which serve as the instigators of about 85 percent of all major hurricanes, are usually too far south in June to trigger tropical-storm formation,” Masters said. Even though the waves don’t pose much of a threat this early in the season, storms did form in 2006 and 2008 with their help, he noted.

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-25/u-s-east-coast-is-an-early-target-at-hurricane-season-s-start



ropical Weather Outlook Text

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
815 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of cloudiness and showers over the western Atlantic Ocean
northeast of the Bahamas is associated with the interaction of an
upper-level trough and a weakening front. While development is not
anticipated for the next couple of days, environmental conditions
are expected to become more conducive for tropical or subtropical
development on Friday. This area of disturbed weather is forecast to
move slowly west-northwestward or northwestward and gradually
approach the southeastern United States over the weekend. The next
Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by 8 PM EDT tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Forecaster Blake