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MrScorpio

(73,631 posts)
Thu Jul 28, 2016, 09:48 AM Jul 2016

A Republican intellectual explains why the Republican Party is going to die

Updated by Zack Beauchamp on July 25, 2016, 8:50 a.m. ET

CLEVELAND — Avik Roy is a Republican’s Republican. A health care wonk and editor at Forbes, he has worked for three Republican presidential hopefuls — Mitt Romney, Rick Perry, and Marco Rubio. Much of his adult life has been dedicated to advancing the Republican Party and conservative ideals.

But when I caught up with Roy at a bar just outside the Republican convention, he said something I’ve never heard from an establishment conservative before: The Grand Old Party is going to die.

“I don’t think the Republican Party and the conservative movement are capable of reforming themselves in an incremental and gradual way,” he said. “There’s going to be a disruption.”

Roy isn’t happy about this: He believes it means the Democrats will dominate national American politics for some time. But he also believes the Republican Party has lost its right to govern, because it is driven by white nationalism rather than a true commitment to equality for all Americans.

“Until the conservative movement can stand up and live by that principle, it will not have the moral authority to lead the country,” he told me.

This is a standard assessment among liberals, but it is frankly shocking to hear from a prominent conservative thinker. Our conversation had the air of a confessional: of Roy admitting that he and his intellectual comrades had gone wrong, had failed, had sinned.

http://www.vox.com/2016/7/25/12256510/republican-party-trump-avik-roy
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A Republican intellectual explains why the Republican Party is going to die (Original Post) MrScorpio Jul 2016 OP
Another of that endangered species - the sane Republican. tonyt53 Jul 2016 #1
But they aren't really sane ToxMarz Jul 2016 #21
good riddance. unblock Jul 2016 #2
The said the same thing after Bush when we swept both Exilednight Jul 2016 #5
The GOP brand Kyblue1 Jul 2016 #23
Agree... the party is going nowhere berksdem Jul 2016 #16
there's a constructive role for a party that's skeptical about government and its ability geek tragedy Jul 2016 #3
A truly insightful and awesome comment that boils it down. Sincere KingCharlemagne Jul 2016 #6
. geek tragedy Jul 2016 #7
Very well said, geek tragedy. brer cat Jul 2016 #8
+1 treestar Jul 2016 #9
Thanks, geek. We really need to keep that perspective in mind. Hekate Jul 2016 #15
Too many GOOD people just assume "it can't happen here"... Raster Jul 2016 #18
It can happen Kyblue1 Jul 2016 #24
Trump/Pence scares the shit out of me. American life as we know it would change --DRAMATICALLY--... Raster Jul 2016 #30
Clear, succinct, incisive. Journal-worthy. +1 . . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Jul 2016 #19
I state the same thing differently Ellen Forradalom Jul 2016 #25
It's a problem winetourdriver Jul 2016 #4
I am a firm believer in having an "Honest Opposition" simply to prevent massive corruption KittyWampus Jul 2016 #13
It's a double bind for the GOP. forjusticethunders Jul 2016 #10
Nice post. Well stated summation. KittyWampus Jul 2016 #12
When a party has spent decades using the "Southern Strategy" and it's thinly veiled KittyWampus Jul 2016 #11
Republican intellectual is an oxymoron, but we do have a two party system. Some version FSogol Jul 2016 #14
don't worry--the Dems we get in office are really more like Republicans librechik Jul 2016 #17
+1000000! SammyWinstonJack Jul 2016 #20
To follow this premise forward, what would it look like if a Susan Collins moderate lindysalsagal Jul 2016 #22
Eight years from now there will be no republican party. Blue Idaho Jul 2016 #26
They only have themselves to blame. DCBob Jul 2016 #27
Historically, when one party dies, the surviving party splits into a left-wing and a right-wing. Binkie The Clown Jul 2016 #28
If you count JPR, it kinda already has happened. (Although it happened before with GreenPartyVoter Jul 2016 #35
If they continue to make their main platform hatred, discrimination and screwing over RKP5637 Jul 2016 #29
I think that the key donco Jul 2016 #31
Not hardly hibbing Jul 2016 #32
I agree. This thread is full of wishful thinking. Jim Lane Jul 2016 #37
Some Confession 4Q2u2 Jul 2016 #33
Yep. Pisses me off that the righties won't admit to creating this mess! GreenPartyVoter Jul 2016 #36
Its been in the making for more than 30 years. procon Jul 2016 #34
these repukes crack me up Skittles Jul 2016 #38

ToxMarz

(2,169 posts)
21. But they aren't really sane
Thu Jul 28, 2016, 12:31 PM
Jul 2016

Just they got slapped hard in the face with a dose of sanity, and it stuck to some of them

unblock

(52,253 posts)
2. good riddance.
Thu Jul 28, 2016, 09:55 AM
Jul 2016

to be honest, both major parties have been written off for dead many times, only to come back.

i remember when people said the republican party couldn't recover from watergate. that actually has a *lot* to do with why they turned ronnie into a saint. sure, they loved his tax cuts and other conservative crap, but what they really liked about him was that he made people forget watergate and what crooks lying, cheating, criminals republicans are.

i agree that democrats have a good shot at being the dominant party for some time, but the republican party isn't going anywhere.

Exilednight

(9,359 posts)
5. The said the same thing after Bush when we swept both
Thu Jul 28, 2016, 10:05 AM
Jul 2016

Chambers and we ended up with the tea party.

They'll just find a new empty suit to shill out with a different label on it.

Kyblue1

(216 posts)
23. The GOP brand
Thu Jul 28, 2016, 12:35 PM
Jul 2016

I recall that after Obama was elected the MSM was saying that the GOP "brand" was severely damaged by the mess they caused during the Bush administration. Then, in no time and with the aid of the MSM, the AstroTurf tea party was launched by the influx of Koch money. From that point on the hatred for Obama and the opposition to everything he tried to achieve began. This movement encouraged by the GOP, including the "so-called" moderates, gave birth to Trumpism and other deranged politicians of the far right.

berksdem

(595 posts)
16. Agree... the party is going nowhere
Thu Jul 28, 2016, 12:10 PM
Jul 2016

Could not agree more... I was having a talk with our neighbor last night about this very subject. While I agree the old school Republican is the minority these days the party will live on.

I wish it were true but if I had a dollar for every time I heard I would be rich - with a moral compass, but rich...

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
3. there's a constructive role for a party that's skeptical about government and its ability
Thu Jul 28, 2016, 09:57 AM
Jul 2016

to manage society through the exercise of various powers. A car needs brakes as well as an engine.

there isn't a constructive role for a white nationalist one.

brer cat

(24,576 posts)
8. Very well said, geek tragedy.
Thu Jul 28, 2016, 10:17 AM
Jul 2016

You have described many sane republicans that I know, none of whom are voting for trump.

treestar

(82,383 posts)
9. +1
Thu Jul 28, 2016, 10:19 AM
Jul 2016

And one realizes they don't really care about limited government. They just use it as a crutch to justify their white nationalism, since they are comfortable in their white privilege.

Hekate

(90,714 posts)
15. Thanks, geek. We really need to keep that perspective in mind.
Thu Jul 28, 2016, 12:05 PM
Jul 2016

It's funny/sad someof the conversations I have about politics with my Bernie-lovin' hubby. His first FIL was a Republican, and he respected him and understood his point of view. Sometimes I have to remind hubby that those days are decades gone, and so is the GOP as it was then. His late FIL would not recognize today's GOP.

There is no constructive role for a white nationalist, "blood and soil," party in America.

Raster

(20,998 posts)
18. Too many GOOD people just assume "it can't happen here"...
Thu Jul 28, 2016, 12:18 PM
Jul 2016

...oh yes it can, and the preliminary indications are not good. A Trump/Pence Presidency could begin the degenerative slide into Amerikan nationalist madness.

Kyblue1

(216 posts)
24. It can happen
Thu Jul 28, 2016, 12:43 PM
Jul 2016

I have been saying for years that we are not immune from fascism. The German people are not stupid but they allowed a fascist to seize control due to a combination of circumstances in Pre- war Germany. One man played on fear, hyper nationalism, resentment to place blame on minority groups for their problems and promising to restore Germany to its former greatness. Sound familiar?

Raster

(20,998 posts)
30. Trump/Pence scares the shit out of me. American life as we know it would change --DRAMATICALLY--...
Thu Jul 28, 2016, 01:00 PM
Jul 2016

...for the worst for just about everyone.

Welcome to DU!

Ellen Forradalom

(16,160 posts)
25. I state the same thing differently
Thu Jul 28, 2016, 12:45 PM
Jul 2016

You can debate with a person who says "You people spend too much money" but not with one who says "You people are going to roast in Hell" or "You people don't deserve to exist."

 

winetourdriver

(196 posts)
4. It's a problem
Thu Jul 28, 2016, 10:02 AM
Jul 2016

Whatever political evolution is underway, I do hope it happens quickly. This nation needs (at least) two functional, viable political parties to function. At 65 years old, my thoughts are with my younger relatives and the kind of world they will deal with.

 

KittyWampus

(55,894 posts)
13. I am a firm believer in having an "Honest Opposition" simply to prevent massive corruption
Thu Jul 28, 2016, 10:54 AM
Jul 2016

and for balance. The problem w/ the Republicans today is theirs is solely a party of obstruction and profit taking for the already very wealthy.

 

forjusticethunders

(1,151 posts)
10. It's a double bind for the GOP.
Thu Jul 28, 2016, 10:49 AM
Jul 2016

Not only do they have to acknowledge white racism in their electoral success, they ALSO have to acknowledge that their dog don't hunt. The GOP wanted to roll back the New Deal as an affront to "free market principles". But nobody really wants that to be rolled back. So they have to use white resentment as a Trojan horse to sell it to racist white working class voters (Reagan Dems and the like) so that they associate government intervention with "handouts to THOSE PEOPLE". Take away white resentment and then what do you have?

On top of that, even if a right-of-center party drops the white resentment, it still has to get past the fact that even "color-blind" free market policy will tend to hurt marginalized groups (because free markets tend to reward access to resources, which marginalized groups don't have) and marginalized group voters at this point associate "free market principles" with "racism/white resentment" the same way the 1964 election made Dems the civil rights party and the Repubs the anti-civil rights party.

 

KittyWampus

(55,894 posts)
11. When a party has spent decades using the "Southern Strategy" and it's thinly veiled
Thu Jul 28, 2016, 10:52 AM
Jul 2016

racism to attract voters… what did they expect?

Their eyes are on the past.

FSogol

(45,488 posts)
14. Republican intellectual is an oxymoron, but we do have a two party system. Some version
Thu Jul 28, 2016, 11:15 AM
Jul 2016

of the GOP will survive and move on. After Reagan won, they wrote off the Democratic party and it did take a while (1981-1992) for us to get reestablished as a national party.

librechik

(30,674 posts)
17. don't worry--the Dems we get in office are really more like Republicans
Thu Jul 28, 2016, 12:15 PM
Jul 2016

They dragged everybody to the right for generations to come, not just themselves.

lindysalsagal

(20,692 posts)
22. To follow this premise forward, what would it look like if a Susan Collins moderate
Thu Jul 28, 2016, 12:35 PM
Jul 2016

attempted a sea change and tried to steer the party away from the hate and fear and towards something reasonable?

They would trounce her, remove her funding and backing, her committe seats, and denounce her in the media.

So, how on earth could they even attempt to right the ship?

Blue Idaho

(5,049 posts)
26. Eight years from now there will be no republican party.
Thu Jul 28, 2016, 12:49 PM
Jul 2016

Given their current trajectory - from well measured political philosophy (one I am adamantly opposed to) to screaming lunatics with sidearms. There is no way that putrid party can survive.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
27. They only have themselves to blame.
Thu Jul 28, 2016, 12:50 PM
Jul 2016

The old guard Republicans fudged the truth and told outright lies for political gain.. but their ignorant sheep believed every word of it and became enraged when the old guard GOP did nothing year after year to fix the "problems" so they turned to a fire breathing lunatic outsider.

Binkie The Clown

(7,911 posts)
28. Historically, when one party dies, the surviving party splits into a left-wing and a right-wing.
Thu Jul 28, 2016, 12:54 PM
Jul 2016

We can see the beginnings of that in the Democratic party already. The Republican party will go extinct, but the Democratic party will fracture into a new conservative party and a new liberal party. One of the two will probably keep the name "Democratic Party". That's the way it has always happened in American politics.

So, ten or fifteen years from now when the split fully forms, will DU split in two as well, or will it follow one or the other of the factions?

GreenPartyVoter

(72,378 posts)
35. If you count JPR, it kinda already has happened. (Although it happened before with
Thu Jul 28, 2016, 01:46 PM
Jul 2016

Old Elm Tree, and that died off.)

RKP5637

(67,111 posts)
29. If they continue to make their main platform hatred, discrimination and screwing over
Thu Jul 28, 2016, 12:56 PM
Jul 2016

most Americans combined with authoritativeness and a lack of equal rights for ALL, they certainly will die off. They've become the way-back machine to some points in time many would like to forget. And their handling of foreign affairs seems they want to only trample on other nations. The US is only about 5% of the world's population. In fact, the GOP is disgusting and the laughing stock of the world!


donco

(1,548 posts)
31. I think that the key
Thu Jul 28, 2016, 01:01 PM
Jul 2016

point of that post is this "when I caught up with Roy at a bar". While crying in his beer.

hibbing

(10,098 posts)
32. Not hardly
Thu Jul 28, 2016, 01:02 PM
Jul 2016

Look at all the state legislatures and governors they have, I don't see that changing anytime soon. Hell, they re-elected Brownback for gosh sakes.

Peace!

 

Jim Lane

(11,175 posts)
37. I agree. This thread is full of wishful thinking.
Thu Jul 28, 2016, 04:45 PM
Jul 2016

If we were like most other industrialized democracies, the Democratic Party would be the major center-right party, and the Greens would be the major center-left party. The Republicans would be a crackpot racist fringe, and anytime they even polled in the double digits it would be a cause for widespread concern.

That's not the USA, though.

The GOP has the brand loyalty of scores of millions of voters. It survived the Goldwater debacle, it survived Watergate, and it will survive Trump.

 

4Q2u2

(1,406 posts)
33. Some Confession
Thu Jul 28, 2016, 01:02 PM
Jul 2016

He forgot the part where he is culpable.
Look who he worked for, it was right in front of him the whole time.
He helped push their apple cart down the mountain. Trump just so happens to be the bottom of the Hill. His "Guys" were the top of it.

Now he laments what the gop'ers have become.

procon

(15,805 posts)
34. Its been in the making for more than 30 years.
Thu Jul 28, 2016, 01:06 PM
Jul 2016

Republican have quite happily -- and deliberately -- been very good at sewing the seeds of their own destruction. The monsters they created have outgrown their cages and have become too dangerous to control. No one should be surprised by this all too predicable denouement.

Skittles

(153,169 posts)
38. these repukes crack me up
Thu Jul 28, 2016, 06:34 PM
Jul 2016

they act like their party has suddenly become very distasteful, when in truth, Donal is just showing the world exactly what they stand for

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