General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsIs the US really third in the world in murders? Not if you subtract 4 US cities from the list.
Very interesting stats.
http://www.mythdebunk.com/us-3rd-in-murders/
True Dough
(17,305 posts)in per capita murders. That has a whole lot more meaning than just a raw number.
clarice
(5,504 posts)True Dough
(17,305 posts)Canada, where I live, comes in at 1.45 murders per 100,000 people. Many of us Canadians like to attribute that to stricter gun control here, but that's not easy to prove empirically.
LoverOfLiberty
(1,438 posts)I'm sure of that.
True Dough
(17,305 posts)In more ways than one.
UMTerp01
(1,048 posts)Not sure what the point of that is. Thats like saying our childhood poverty rate would go down if you took out the 4 states that had the highest rates of child povery, or child obesity, or the 4 cities with the highest overall obesity rate.
clarice
(5,504 posts)Straw Man
(6,624 posts)Not sure what the point of that is.
... the point is that those cities have very low rates of legal gun ownership and very high rates of illegal gun ownership.
One might conclude that placing more legal restrictions on gun ownership is not the answer. Or not, depending on one's predisposition on the issue.
clarice
(5,504 posts)gollygee
(22,336 posts)Hoyt
(54,770 posts)MadDAsHell
(2,067 posts)Hoyt
(54,770 posts)Surprised I have to spell it out to you.
MadDAsHell
(2,067 posts)The problem is the manufacturers, union laborers and legal original purchasers of those guns?
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)Not to mention people too obtuse to see it.
Straw Man
(6,624 posts)See how that works?
gollygee
(22,336 posts)Not really parallel.
Straw Man
(6,624 posts)Perfectly parallel.
gollygee
(22,336 posts)No, not parallel.
Straw Man
(6,624 posts)Parallel.
gollygee
(22,336 posts)You have to go to a licensed pharmacist.
Straw Man
(6,624 posts)You have to go to a licensed pharmacist.
Is this a "gun show loophole" thing? A convicted felon can't legally buy a gun there or anywhere. Universal background checks would supposedly solve that problem. There would still be plenty of illegal sales, of course.
Abq_Sarah
(2,883 posts)Universal background checks are completely unenforceable. It's just an ego boost for people who want to feel like they've accomplished something.
krispos42
(49,445 posts)Vendors at gun shows do. And nearly all vendors at gun shows are local or regional licenced dealers leaving their brick-and-morter stores for a weekend at the show.
Gun shows sell table space to vendors, including gun sellers.
beevul
(12,194 posts)DustyJoe
(849 posts)Of course the fact that criminal murderers, not legal gun owners are
responsible for the murders in those top 4 cities, what further
legal restrictions of the non-criminal population should be pursued ?
And would it make one iota of difference to criminals ?
scscholar
(2,902 posts)that make the decision to flood the streets like in Chicago with guns. That's why the only solution is to make sure the people that live elsewhere can't get guns that they can use to flood the streets.
Straw Man
(6,624 posts)that make the decision to flood the streets like in Chicago with guns. That's why the only solution is to make sure the people that live elsewhere can't get guns that they can use to flood the streets.
... on "legal"? Legal is legal.
And it's absolute nonsense. No one says "I think I'll buy a gun so that it can be stolen from me and join the flood of illegal guns on the streets on Chicago." The only people who make that decision are gunrunning straw buyers, who are by no means "legal."
So your "solution" to society's inability to deal with rampant lawlessness is to abrogate the rights of the law-abiding? Tough sell ...
flamin lib
(14,559 posts)if you take the bullets out.
flamin lib
(14,559 posts)clarice
(5,504 posts)madinmaryland
(64,933 posts)if you take the fuel out.
FrodosPet
(5,169 posts)Yes, sadly, it is a thing. At least it takes more physical strength and proximity than shooting someone.
It's a lot easier to shoot 5 people than pistol whip 5 people.
flamin lib
(14,559 posts)What is it about guns that make some men go absolutely crazy?
Wish I had an answer.
lostnfound
(16,179 posts)Was a rough day.
The ten-year old on his front porch survived.
Response to flamin lib (Reply #5)
Rex This message was self-deleted by its author.
Nitram
(22,801 posts)Igel
(35,309 posts)It rather depends on the claim that's being discussed.
As pointed out above, the highest rates of homicide (allegedly) occur in cities with low legal gun ownership. It's a point to be made that effects how you interpret the murder vs ownership rate.
It's also important to realize that this means that the homicides that really tug the US homicide rate up are concentrated. "Gun culture" is widespread, but there are areas probably not big into the NRA and conservative politics that are problems. In other words, there are two "gun cultures," one with a high and one with a lower homicide rate. (I assume we're leaving suicides out of this.)
If it's the guns, that is certainly isn't predicted, unless those cities have exceptionally high gun ownership rates, legal or illegal. I like hypotheses that not only account for the data we see that also accounts for the data we're not especially interested but especially in why we don't see certain kinds of data. I've seen many a theory that predicted all the data we had--but also made predictions that simply didn't pan out, but people couldn't be bothered to look at.
maxsolomon
(33,345 posts)Or "Thugs", ifyouknowwhatimsayin. Or maybe both in collusion.
clarice
(5,504 posts)conclusions as quickly as you did....sarcasm sign aside.
Eleanors38
(18,318 posts)"Gangs and Politicians in Chicago: An Unholy Alliance."
flamin lib
(14,559 posts)Eleanors38
(18,318 posts)Penalties for illegal (gun) posession should be enforced, but often they are not.
The gangs whose members kill disproportionately huge numbers of other people (often other criminals) are in some areas deeply protected. Read: "Gangs and Politics in Chicago: An Unholy Alliance." Likely, Chicago is not the only city where skidmark thugs can get juice with little interruption. Where they get their guns has diddly to do with it.
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)about the impact on society.
Eleanors38
(18,318 posts)Hoyt
(54,770 posts)krispos42
(49,445 posts)and open carry.
Thank God nobody was killed in Chicago with a gun until a couple of years ago.
Response to Eleanors38 (Reply #23)
Post removed
beevul
(12,194 posts)We've only had background checks at retail since 1994. I have yet to see anyone make the case that "background checks on private sales are necessary" because of anything that actually IS happening. The closest I've seen is "might/maybe/could".
Registration. No thanks.
"Shall issue" is about concealed carry, and has nothing to do with gun sales.
Then there's the PLCAA that makes it almost impossible to prosecute bad apple gun dealers and the exemption to the Consumer Protection Act for guns.
You want to see gun makers and sellers sued for the third party actions of criminals. Just admit it.
The safe space known as bansalot, is down the hall, in case you're confused.
Straw Man
(6,624 posts)How about you try to keep a civil tongue in your head and cut out the personal attacks and hate speech? Is that too much to ask?
Also, you need a double-L in "fellaters." Just for future reference ...
Marengo
(3,477 posts)Eleanors38
(18,318 posts)The place has unique problems, a prominent one being an even longer history of gangs fully integrated into the culture, and protected by politicians who owe their careers to them.
I note your personal insult -- probably protected (Chicago-style?) In GD in its own right. You are caught up in a culture war; I can't help that. But I WILL continue to post where ever the controllers choose to post, even if it is in GD, 24-7
clarice
(5,504 posts)GoCubsGo
(32,084 posts)clarice
(5,504 posts)GoCubsGo
(32,084 posts)And, provide decent, safe schools, with a promise that they can eventually go to college, or into a trade apprenticeship. Give them fewer reasons to resort to gangs and crime. And, tighten up punishment and gun laws nationwide. All the gun bans in Chicago are not going to make an iota of difference, when one has an endless supply of cheap, legal fire arms available to them right next door in northeastern Indiana. This holds true for the other 3 cities on the list, as well.
flamin lib
(14,559 posts)A searchable electronic database of every gun and it's owner cross referenced to local, state and federal crime records.
License to own by type of firearm renewable every three years or some other suitable period.
Universal background check through a licensed FFL.
Safe storage laws to prevent theft and little kids killing each other.
Mandatory reporting of theft/loss of guns.
Mandatory training for first time buyers on use, storage, responsibilities (both legal and ethical) and safety with periodic renewals.
Permit to purchase with background check by Chief Local Law Enforcement including interviews with employers, family and any other people deemed necessary. All this after the training above.
Immediate confiscation of guns from domestic abusers including temporary restraining orders pending hearing for permanent status.
Repealing the PLCAA and placing guns back under the control of the Consumer Protection Act.
Full funding and staffing of the BATF&E or moving it to the FBI.
Rigorous standards for gun dealers including annual inventories and harsh penalties for any lost firearms from inventory.
Training for dealers and their staff on how to spot a straw buyer or suicide and investigations into sales to either.
Give me time and I'll have more but I'd start here and patch any loopholes found during implementation.
DustyJoe
(849 posts)Nuke Indiana, it's the only way.
MadDAsHell
(2,067 posts)I don't know that there's an actual correlation/causation though, could just be coincidence.
sarisataka
(18,655 posts)gollygee
(22,336 posts)Eleanors38
(18,318 posts)clarice
(5,504 posts)Nac Mac Feegle
(971 posts)It's a book by John R. Lott, Jr. He has a history of academic malfeasance that is truly wondrous.
http://www.rawstory.com/2016/08/nras-favorite-academic-john-lott-exposed-as-a-data-fudging-sock-puppeting-fraud/
Fabricating studies, cherry-picking and manipulating data, outright lies, being his own sock-puppet, and more.
Let's say that anything he says is to be taken with a VERY large grain of salt. Approximately the size of a semi-truck, With trailer.
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)and Ted Nugent.
clarice
(5,504 posts)Hoyt
(54,770 posts)toll on innocent people.
beevul
(12,194 posts)The closest thing to debate I've seen you do on the topic, is to post pics and make nasty insinuations.
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)as they can have a room full of guns suitable for urban warfare, one in their pants to walk out the door, etc. You might as well ask a rabid dog not to bite you.
Marengo
(3,477 posts)Hoyt
(54,770 posts)Dishonest gungeoneers who can't read started the rumor and gullible fools believe it.
beevul
(12,194 posts)A very trumpesque response.
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)with comprehension problems.
beevul
(12,194 posts)So does president Obama, or had you forgotten the national park gun carry bill he signed?
As a poster that can't tell the difference between a small cabin on the side of a mountain, and a compound, you are unqualified to judge my ability to comprehend.
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)beevul
(12,194 posts)That means very little, when you can't even define "cabin" correctly.
Marengo
(3,477 posts)Hoyt
(54,770 posts)the gun goofs were discussing when it's OK to play cowboy and start shooting no matter how many innocents are endangered. Some gunner posted an article about a robbery in a grocery store where the robbers locked the doors when they entered. The gun nuts went ape and said that's when you start shooting even if innocents are endangered because they planned on killing everyone . Of course, no one was shot in the incident, but gunners are not rational.
In any event, in an attempt to make a point that might save a life, I posted something like, "well when I was a robber, I locked the doors to control the situation by keeping others orolice from walking in and escalating the situation." Of course, obtuse gun cowboys missed the point and started acting like Trump, claiming I'm a former robber. It's very difficult debating folks who are steeped in gunz.
beevul
(12,194 posts)Especially when you revert to trump tactics that "I was just joking". You were either lying then, or you're lying now. Not that I have ever seen you actually try to debate on this topic.
LOL, that's priceless. Its YOUR claim hoyt. others are just repeating it. YOU are the one getting all trumpy..."I was just kidding", "I was just joking", "I was being sarcastic".
Translation: Gungeoneers don't like people who express gun hate, as you do, hoyt.
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)against the scenarios where you plan to pull your gun and put innocent people in danger to save your hide.
beevul
(12,194 posts)Thats what trump would say.
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)beevul
(12,194 posts)Hoyt
(54,770 posts)usually . . . . . . .
beevul
(12,194 posts)Hoyt
(54,770 posts)beevul
(12,194 posts)beevul
(12,194 posts)(Are uneducated, you mean)
It always amazes me how you presume to know so much about tens of millions of Americans that you have never met, and never will.
Incidentally, I reckon even most dumb uneducated gunners can tell the difference between a cabin and a compound, so that probably isn't a good line of argument for you.
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)you'd clean house at a casino with the odds of pegging a gun fancier.
beevul
(12,194 posts)Tell us more. What are they (the tens of millions of your fellow Americans who are into guns) like?
Those mealies in your mouth, do they taste good?
beevul
(12,194 posts)You were under no duty to prove me correct, but thanks just the same. You couldn't resist, could you.
Just because one disagrees with anti-gun methodology, does not mean one does not care.
I know you're chomping at the bit right now, to reply "anything to defend guns".
Let me save you the trouble:
Theres nothing wrong with gun ownership, and the only time it needs to be defended, is when narrow minded assholes attack it.
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)beevul
(12,194 posts)Its more of a case of you getting sensitive when someone questions your gun hate.
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)beevul
(12,194 posts)kcr
(15,317 posts)Response to Nac Mac Feegle (Reply #25)
Post removed
JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)You just remove the data points that you don't like?
Humm ... Imagine how strong the US would be in the world if we pulled certain STATES from the calculations.
Which counties might we want to drop from that calculation?
Oh hey ... maybe we could do the US economy using only CA and NY!!
This is a very OLD game that people play with statistics ... just include, or drop, the data points you like.
NickB79
(19,243 posts)These 4 cities are clearly outliers, and you can learn a LOT from outliers if you can determine a pattern that is generating those outliers.
If only 4 cities in the US can skew the results that far, from 3rd to 111th in murder rates, it indicates there is something seriously out of the norm going on in those 4 cities, and intense research should be done to determine why this is and how it should be addressed. Law enforcement, economic issues that need to be addressed, housing issues, drug issues, etc.
If anything, keeping those 4 cities in the statistical mix without clearly stating how much they skew the results, when they're so clearly outliers, is more akin to what GOP climate deniers do when they cite 1998 (a massive outlier in terms of global temperatures) as a way to claim that global warming "stopped" 16 years ago (it really hasn't).
JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)Or factor in population density.
Per capita averages.
I have 2 advanced degrees in behavioral sciences.
And the motivated can easily tag a few data points as outliers to make their case.
Try this ... Do the same stats with developed nations. And drop their largest cities.
Oops.
Bottom line, a data point is not an outlier just because you don't like it.
clarice
(5,504 posts)JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)If YOU as the OP author can't put forward a single OPINION about this data you found ...
... Why should any of us take YOUR OP seriously??
clarice
(5,504 posts)without having a firm position on the subject? If not... that seems awfully....ummm... fascist?
JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)... I did not say you needed a firm position.
But I would expect an OP to demonstrate that they had "some" thoughts on the topic. Even if not firm.
If they actually cared to have a real discussion, I mean.
clarice
(5,504 posts)might be a bit more gracious.
clarice
(5,504 posts)JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)You can't toss out selected data points, leave the others, and then "discuss" it.
Unless you want to examine cities of similar size. And gun laws in those.
clarice
(5,504 posts)JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)... entering those cities, right?
I was asking about cities outside the US in the developed world.
How do we compare with countries with more controls? I think you know the answer.
clarice
(5,504 posts)Sorry, I'm not playing baby bird with you. You have the same Internet tgat I do.
Go learn.
clarice
(5,504 posts)clarice
(5,504 posts)I've run into lately... I LOVE this kind of give and take..... Peace be with you.
Igel
(35,309 posts)We do it all the time.
Consider the average American weight. It tells you little.
If you want to look at hypertension, you need to disaggregate the data. The average is pointless. Once you do this, you can start looking for what may account for the overall average by looking at subgroups. Does it vary by age? Geography? By ethnicity/race?
You look at the obesity rate and then you disaggregate it by ethnicity and find that historical diet patterns help to predict to a large extent type 2 diabetes.
You find that sedentary lifestyles encourage it. You find that there's a real discrepancy between a lot of suburbanites that are upper class and lower class.
But unless you start by saying that the average, per-capital mass of an adult American isn't the end-all of the conversation and you do remove some data points (dealing with them separately, not just dismissing them), you miss Really Important Points.
It's the same with education levels, unemployment, gun violence, arrests, obesity, in-school music programs, okra consumption, craft-beer consumption, and a million other things.
You find stats saying things like "California, were it a country, would be the Xth largest economy in the world." You find stats showing that half of gun violence, or nearly so, occurs in just the American SE. You find US military strength is racially biased--the Air Force is disproportionately white, the Army is over-stocked with Latinos and if you look at front-line forces in the Iraq War it's even more disproportionately Latino and white.
Yes, some just drop data points. But unless you disaggregate the data--"If you leave out 4 cities, then the US homicide rate is very high"--you don't get to ask what might be important questions. However, the questions might prove to have embarrassing answers, just as a lot of the obesity data did, or hypertension data did.
For example, there was a nice hypertension drug. It seemed good in clinical trials. In a follow-up study, turns out it did nothing to help patients but had a low incidence of serious side effects. It was almost pulled off the market, until somebody looked at the original clinical trial data. They took out a subpopulation, and got the follow-up results. It turns out that one subgroup in the US benefited strongly from that drug. The rest of the population, not. Unless you separated out the data, you'd never find that it was a lifesaver for that particular subgroup. Eventually they located the genetic factor that predisposed that group to salt intolerance, and this led to the FDA's revising the salt intake requirements. Low salt diets for most people have no effect; we eliminated excess salt quickly and easily. But for another group there's a genetic variant that favors salt retention.
guillaumeb
(42,641 posts)What does it prove, other than people kill, and many people are gathered in large cities.
TexasMommaWithAHat
(3,212 posts)is the fact that the rest of the country isn't nearly as negatively impacted by guns as the statistics appear to indicate.
Most of the country is not having an epidemic of gun related deaths, and that's good news for everyone not in those cities.
guillaumeb
(42,641 posts)So should rural residents ignore the gun violence because it does not directly affect them?
kcr
(15,317 posts)There's no problem, then.
TexasMommaWithAHat
(3,212 posts)Where did I say there was no problem?
Response to clarice (Original post)
Post removed
Xolodno
(6,395 posts)Its Friday and I turned off the "stats" portion of my brain. While getting a glass of wine, I turned it on again.
The article also uses false equivalency. If you remove the top three cities for gun violence in the US, you need to do the same for rest, bet your ass if you did that, the US will score even higher.
kcr
(15,317 posts)ileus
(15,396 posts)Imperialism Inc.
(2,495 posts)It basically demolished the claim in your subject line (and the analyzed meme).
We weren't third in world murders to begin with. We were eighth. And removing those cities caused a drop of a few spots. Ditto if you use per capita instead. So there is no drastic effect from removing those 4 cities! Furthermore, as pointed out at the link, there is nothing at all special about those cities. They don't have the highest murder rate or anything like that. They have been cherry picked so someone could claim gun control leads to high murder rates, but they fail to do that because, again, there is no drastic change from removing them. So WTF?
bravenak
(34,648 posts)Not even enough to notice that the site linked was completely debunking the proposed meme.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)More minorities. That's why they use the old 'drop' these cities filled with dark people off the list shit and pretend their dog whistles ain't loud as hell. We know what this shit is. It's called bullshit.
MadDAsHell
(2,067 posts)...with the most gun violence have more minorities?
Isn't it just as likely that it's the white suburbanites from these cities that are committing all the gun murders? Do you have any empirical evidence showing gun murders are more likely to be committed by a person of color than a white person?
bravenak
(34,648 posts)the cities they decided to removed just happen to be filled with people who look like me and i'm the racist? against myself, for pointing out who and what they did? bullshit
MadDAsHell
(2,067 posts)The whole point of the article was to show how much 4 cities are skewing the result; the point would've held regardless of what those cities' actual names are.
The article made absolutely no attempt to determine why those cities are outliers, but you decide to jump in and say it must be because there's more black people there.
Unfuckinreal.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)TipTok
(2,474 posts)... In your mind at least.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)hack89
(39,171 posts)Young black men commit about 50 % of all reported murders. They are also killed at similar rates.
Warpy
(111,261 posts)and I'm not really surprised. There are too many jerks running around with too many semi auto pistols out there.
Gunfire in my neighborhood has been reduced, though, they've made one of the main streets one lane with bike lanes on either side, so there aren't the running gun battles between cars any more. They're farther away now.
But yeah, I'm sick of it.
Rex
(65,616 posts)EX500rider
(10,848 posts)10th in overall numbers, 107th by rate per 100,000 (which is really the only way to look at it, stupid to compare the overall number of 300 million vs several million)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate
Marr
(20,317 posts)The thing those four cities share is that they're probably the most identified with African Americans, in the public mind. That's not statistically true, but it's the public perception.
I think this point was originally designed to support a sort of 'we'd be great if not for blacks' line of rhetoric.
mwrguy
(3,245 posts)JustABozoOnThisBus
(23,340 posts)One thing that's stated is that the four cities (Chicago, Washington D.C., Detroit, New Orleans) have the toughest gun laws in the country. Chicago and D.C., maybe. New Orleans, I doubt it. Detroit, absolutely not. I don't think Detroit has gun laws, they just expect people to follow Michigan and Federal laws.
So, there's one lie.
I won't bother to double-check their statistics, I will just assume they pulled numbers out of thin air.