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kpete

(71,997 posts) Tue Aug 16, 2016, 09:03 AM Aug 2016

The redder the state, the farther Trump is running behind Romney.

https://twitter.com/bcburden/status/765218345989746688

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The redder the state, the farther Trump is running behind Romney. (Original Post) kpete Aug 2016 OP

I think this is just a quirk of math. Skinner Aug 2016 #1

red state voters will hold their nose and vote trump dembotoz Aug 2016 #2

Cool to see for now but will likely get closer whatthehey Aug 2016 #3

Skinner

(63,645 posts)

1. I think this is just a quirk of math.

Reply to kpete (Original post)

Tue Aug 16, 2016, 09:10 AM

Aug 2016

If Trump 2016 is losing a certain fraction of voters compared to Romney 2012, that would translate into a larger percentage-point decrease for states that are more Republican. For example:

Lets say (hypothetically) that Trump is losing 10% of Romney's voters. In a state where Romney won 60% of the vote that would translate into a 6-percentage-point loss. But in a state where Romney only won 40% of the vote that would translate into a 4-percentage-point loss.

The percentage loss from 2012 to 2016 remains relatively consistent across all states.

dembotoz

(16,808 posts)

2. red state voters will hold their nose and vote trump

Reply to kpete (Original post)

Tue Aug 16, 2016, 09:16 AM

Aug 2016

they may whine now
but come nov they will fall in line and come out in droves.

they always do...they may not like donald but they HATE hrc

republicans get it
they vote

it is the dems who sit at home and watch the results and get shocked

whatthehey

(3,660 posts)

3. Cool to see for now but will likely get closer

Reply to kpete (Original post)

Tue Aug 16, 2016, 09:17 AM

Aug 2016

With an embarrassment like Trump, 3rd parties will get a boost, but it's stretching credibility to assume the Libertarians and Greens will keep as high as they are now.

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