General Discussion

INdemo

(6,994 posts) Sat Jun 16, 2012, 10:54 AM Jun 2012

I have a question for those of you that are much more observant than me..

I have noticed in the last two Presidential elections that the corporate media is very eager to report poll results and even more eager when it shows their favored candidate leading or in a tight race.What I found was the fact that many of these polls have a very low samplings number and the geographical location is the finished touch on stacking the deck for their corporate choice.
....Zogby once stated that a political poll is not really accurate unless the samplings number is at least 1,000-1500.Then other factors must be considered including the geographical locations of samples.
...Some polls seem to be taken on a daily basis with survey numbers of just 100 or so but yet some networks will swear by their accuracy but will not reveal the number of voters surveyed.........
Now after all that....Do yo really think this election is as close as the corporate media would have us believe?

8 replies

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I have a question for those of you that are much more observant than me.. (Original Post) INdemo Jun 2012 OP

Close? It's a yawner. Tierra_y_Libertad Jun 2012 #1

Even worse, polls liking their candidate are trumpeted, then exit polls ignored as hopelessly ill e WingDinger Jun 2012 #2

I think it's fairly close... cynatnite Jun 2012 #3

It's marketing. Campaigns are product, product brings customers,...... Bonhomme Richard Jun 2012 #4

it's not about the presidential race, it's about congress, and the senate in particular. unblock Jun 2012 #5

They should have to post the areas of the country they surveyed. If the whole shraby Jun 2012 #6

Some polls are accurate but, and it's a big but lunatica Jun 2012 #7

I agree. I always think the samples are too small. CJCRANE Jun 2012 #8

Tierra_y_Libertad

(50,414 posts)

1. Close? It's a yawner.

Reply to INdemo (Original post)

Sat Jun 16, 2012, 10:59 AM

Jun 2012

Romney's base is older white males. Obama's is younger white males, women, and minorities.

It may not be a landslide for Obama but Romney is headed to the land fill.

WingDinger

(3,690 posts)

2. Even worse, polls liking their candidate are trumpeted, then exit polls ignored as hopelessly ill e

Reply to INdemo (Original post)

Sat Jun 16, 2012, 11:00 AM

Jun 2012

equipped to determine foul play etc.

cynatnite

(31,011 posts)

3. I think it's fairly close...

Reply to INdemo (Original post)

Sat Jun 16, 2012, 11:06 AM

Jun 2012

It's easy to call bullshit on polls, but I don't think we should ignore them either. The only one I will never pay attention to is Rasmussen. They always seem to lean right by a somewhat large margin.

Polls are also just instant snapshots that can change from one day to the next, too. I follow the pattern of polls. I never focus in on just one. Taking several of them over a period of time is how I judge them.

I do think it's a somewhat close election. I also know we've got a ways to go until November and a lot can happen between now and then. Right now, it's all doom and gloom for Obama to hear them tell it. The polls aren't all that great for him right now, but in a few months that could easily change. Economic issues will be the guiding factor.

August and September is when I really begin to take polls more seriously. If things remain as they are right now, I think Obama will have a hell of a time. It could be very close and I will be holding my breath on election night.

If Obama can get above Romney by 5 points or more, then I feel like I can breathe a little bit.

Just don't get too wrapped up in polls.

Bonhomme Richard

(9,000 posts)

4. It's marketing. Campaigns are product, product brings customers,......

Reply to INdemo (Original post)

Sat Jun 16, 2012, 12:27 PM

Jun 2012

customers bring money.
They need to gin things up with things like making the race tight, controversy even when it doesn't exist, playing to viewers preferences, and anything else they can think of that draws viewers.
Toss in a heavy dose of self-importance and there you have it.

unblock

(52,386 posts)

5. it's not about the presidential race, it's about congress, and the senate in particular.

Reply to INdemo (Original post)

Sat Jun 16, 2012, 12:53 PM

Jun 2012

obama's a strong favorite to win for quite a number of reasons, but the illusion of a presidential tight race (a) makes the media more money and (b) will help republicans running for congress raise more money and get out the vote in november.

shraby

(21,946 posts)

6. They should have to post the areas of the country they surveyed. If the whole

Reply to INdemo (Original post)

Sat Jun 16, 2012, 01:37 PM

Jun 2012

poll was done in a red state, that will move the polls rightward in a big way.

lunatica

(53,410 posts)

7. Some polls are accurate but, and it's a big but

Reply to INdemo (Original post)

Sat Jun 16, 2012, 01:47 PM

Jun 2012

They are a reflection of the knowledge or ignorance of the populace at any given moment. Political polls are therefore no more than a reflection of the average American's knowledge which simply isn't reflected in reality. As they get closer to when your average American is actually knowledgeable about the facts they then reflect more accurately. And it's important to know how the questions are posited in polls. If the question is Do you think the economy is growing too slowly under President Obama, then it's slanted to make Obama look personally responsible for the slow growth if you say yes.

Never forget that most Americans have no idea who the Vice President is.

CJCRANE

(18,184 posts)

8. I agree. I always think the samples are too small.

Reply to INdemo (Original post)

Sat Jun 16, 2012, 02:00 PM

Jun 2012

A sample of 500 people is not enough to represent a country of over 300 million IMO.

I've seen polls with larger samples done in countries with smaller populations.

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