General Discussion

ffr

(22,670 posts) Fri Sep 23, 2016, 03:31 PM Sep 2016

My perception was right. Nevada just turned blue on 538.

This is why volunteering is so important. We have just weeks left to get people registered. If they've moved or haven't voted in recent elections, it is critical that they re-register to vote.

We need volunteers in every state. THAT MEANS YOU!

The blue wave is building. Be a part of making history happen. Volunteer today!

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

24 replies

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Highlight:

My perception was right. Nevada just turned blue on 538. (Original Post) ffr Sep 2016 OP

Yaaaay..on a good roll today. Like the curl of the blue wave misterhighwasted Sep 2016 #1

NM is turning a darker blue Warpy Sep 2016 #2

Encouraging news for the dem volunteers in AZ & TX ffr Sep 2016 #3

I don't hold out much hope for TX Warpy Sep 2016 #5

We're Doing What We Can Vogon_Glory Sep 2016 #6

Well, even if Texas shifts from being a "slam dunk" to "less a slam dunk" Wednesdays Sep 2016 #12

No kidding! That's why the lavender would be so pleasing Warpy Sep 2016 #14

I actually think Texas will go blue before Arizona will Horse with no Name Sep 2016 #13

I live in NM and I totally agree.... chillfactor Sep 2016 #8

kick Dawson Leery Sep 2016 #4

I like what I'm seeing, but what poll just came out to turn Nevada blue? vdogg Sep 2016 #7

You can click on the state and it'll show you more ffr Sep 2016 #9

I did that and the most recent one I saw had Trump +1 vdogg Sep 2016 #10

All the recent polls show Trump ahead in NV. former9thward Sep 2016 #11

Is there a new Nevada poll? democrattotheend Sep 2016 #15

well, it's still red on my computer maxsolomon Sep 2016 #16

Kick 🚀 and Rec! Sunny05 Sep 2016 #17

If only we could get Texas Coolest Ranger Sep 2016 #18

Surf's up! SunSeeker Sep 2016 #19

Just rechecked 538 vdogg Sep 2016 #20

It's a very very faint pink. Close to 50-50 chance. LisaL Sep 2016 #21

Same here-- I saw that ailsagirl Sep 2016 #22

Yes. It changed that quickly. But HRC's overall percentage went up by .1 ffr Sep 2016 #23

It was kind of obvious they made a mistake because we had no new polls showing her ahead in NV. LisaL Sep 2016 #24

misterhighwasted

(9,148 posts)

1. Yaaaay..on a good roll today. Like the curl of the blue wave

Reply to ffr (Original post)

Fri Sep 23, 2016, 03:34 PM

Sep 2016

Warpy

(111,267 posts)

2. NM is turning a darker blue

Reply to ffr (Original post)

Fri Sep 23, 2016, 03:36 PM

Sep 2016

which was my perception. No way will a heavily Hispanic state first settled by Mexicans vote for a thing like Trump.

ffr

(22,670 posts)

3. Encouraging news for the dem volunteers in AZ & TX

Reply to Warpy (Reply #2)

Fri Sep 23, 2016, 03:39 PM

Sep 2016

Come on AZ & TX! Make this happen!

Warpy

(111,267 posts)

5. I don't hold out much hope for TX

Reply to ffr (Reply #3)

Fri Sep 23, 2016, 03:44 PM

Sep 2016

although they might turn a pleasing shade of lavender. There are too many right wing preachers spewing poison from the pulpit there.

I do hold out some hope for AZ.

Vogon_Glory

(9,118 posts)

6. We're Doing What We Can

Reply to Warpy (Reply #5)

Fri Sep 23, 2016, 03:58 PM

Sep 2016

We're doing what we can here in Texas. I've already done some phone banking.

What would help in Texas would be if Texas Hispanics made dog-whistle and overt Hispanic-bashing as politically perilous for Texas Tea-publican politicians as such behaviors have become for California Tea-publicans. Unfortunately, Texas Hispanics are far more apathetic than those of other states.

Non-voting implies assent. The day Texas Hispanics learn that lesson, the doomsday clock for Club Pachyderm starts ticking.

Wednesdays

(17,380 posts)

12. Well, even if Texas shifts from being a "slam dunk" to "less a slam dunk"

Reply to Warpy (Reply #5)

Fri Sep 23, 2016, 04:44 PM

Sep 2016

It would loom large, because then the pugs would have to spend precious resources that would otherwise be used in critical states such as North Carolina or Florida.

Warpy

(111,267 posts)

14. No kidding! That's why the lavender would be so pleasing

Reply to Wednesdays (Reply #12)

Fri Sep 23, 2016, 04:50 PM

Sep 2016

It would signal a major shift away from being one of the reddest states in the Moron Corridor. I've known a lot of great lefties in Texas, it's time they got a break in their favor.

I notice SD is starting to break with them, looking pink instead of blood red.

Horse with no Name

(33,956 posts)

13. I actually think Texas will go blue before Arizona will

Reply to Warpy (Reply #5)

Fri Sep 23, 2016, 04:46 PM

Sep 2016

interestingly enough.

chillfactor

(7,576 posts)

8. I live in NM and I totally agree....

Reply to Warpy (Reply #2)

Fri Sep 23, 2016, 04:02 PM

Sep 2016

I am working the early election days here and election day....so excited!

Dawson Leery

(19,348 posts)

4. kick

Reply to ffr (Original post)

Fri Sep 23, 2016, 03:39 PM

Sep 2016

vdogg

(1,384 posts)

7. I like what I'm seeing, but what poll just came out to turn Nevada blue?

Reply to ffr (Original post)

Fri Sep 23, 2016, 04:01 PM

Sep 2016

ffr

(22,670 posts)

9. You can click on the state and it'll show you more

Reply to vdogg (Reply #7)

Fri Sep 23, 2016, 04:05 PM

Sep 2016

Although, if you're looking for the specific poll, you'll probably have to ask the wonks from that site.

vdogg

(1,384 posts)

10. I did that and the most recent one I saw had Trump +1

Reply to ffr (Reply #9)

Fri Sep 23, 2016, 04:07 PM

Sep 2016

I'll look again though, I might've missed it. They may not have added it to the list yet either.

former9thward

(32,017 posts)

11. All the recent polls show Trump ahead in NV.

Reply to vdogg (Reply #10)

Fri Sep 23, 2016, 04:21 PM

Sep 2016

The realclear average shows Trump with a 2.3% lead.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nv/nevada_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-6004.html

democrattotheend

(11,605 posts)

15. Is there a new Nevada poll?

Reply to ffr (Original post)

Fri Sep 23, 2016, 04:55 PM

Sep 2016

The last few I have seen have been bad. Is there a new one?

maxsolomon

(33,345 posts)

16. well, it's still red on my computer

Reply to ffr (Original post)

Fri Sep 23, 2016, 04:57 PM

Sep 2016

2pm Friday, PST

Sunny05

(865 posts)

17. Kick 🚀 and Rec!

Reply to ffr (Original post)

Fri Sep 23, 2016, 05:05 PM

Sep 2016

Coolest Ranger

(2,034 posts)

18. If only we could get Texas

Reply to ffr (Original post)

Fri Sep 23, 2016, 05:05 PM

Sep 2016

Oh my god I will pee on myself election night

SunSeeker

(51,564 posts)

19. Surf's up!

Reply to ffr (Original post)

Fri Sep 23, 2016, 05:13 PM

Sep 2016

vdogg

(1,384 posts)

20. Just rechecked 538

Reply to ffr (Original post)

Fri Sep 23, 2016, 05:52 PM

Sep 2016

Nevada is actually pink. I think they may have made a mistake earlier. Should probably delete.

LisaL

(44,973 posts)

21. It's a very very faint pink. Close to 50-50 chance.

Reply to vdogg (Reply #20)

Fri Sep 23, 2016, 06:01 PM

Sep 2016

ailsagirl

(22,897 posts)

22. Same here-- I saw that

Reply to vdogg (Reply #20)

Fri Sep 23, 2016, 06:03 PM

Sep 2016

They updated the map just five minutes ago

ffr

(22,670 posts)

23. Yes. It changed that quickly. But HRC's overall percentage went up by .1

Reply to vdogg (Reply #20)

Fri Sep 23, 2016, 06:07 PM

Sep 2016

Will keep an eye on it and we'll keep working on getting voter turnout.

LisaL

(44,973 posts)

24. It was kind of obvious they made a mistake because we had no new polls showing her ahead in NV.