criteria etc. I also think Hillary's ground game and GOTV will prevail big time.

As of September 26, 11:34AM EDT:
Snapshot (149 state polls): Clinton 292, Trump 246 EV    Meta-margin: Clinton +1.5%
RSS Clinton Nov. win probability: random drift 69%, Bayesian 79%


Senate snapshot (47 polls): Dem+Ind: 49, GOP: 51, Meta-margin: R +0.7%, Nov. control probability: Dem. 55%

http://election.princeton.edu/faq/

Read down the left column, too...Wang's explanation of how other pollsters operate...good read..be well..

Even simple models like TPM's polltracker could get close to that.

Easy elections are easy to call.

She can explain how quickly intelligence sources were able to identify the subject etc.

Also, she can emphasize that the suspect was born in the US.

She also needs to say that that bomber is a terrorist because that is what voters want to hear. (I heard this from my husband)

Bookies have Hillary taking it easily. Not really even close. They have money involved, so they're more thorough. The networks and big polling organizations have money involved, too, but in all the wrong ways -- advertising dollars. It is good business to have the race extremely close. You'd never tune into a football game that you knew would be a total hopeless blowout.

I wouldn't be surprised if Nate Silver has Trump leading in California and New York soon.

Yes, some polls' directions are scary.

Yes, keep hammering Drumpf for being racist, unstable, and a liar.

But doesn't it seem time for Clinton to run as many positive ads about her as negative about Drumpf?

She could start with her first year agenda of policy proposals, in the article below, which media has mostly ignored. And yes, I know it's been posted here at DU before.

In the middle of the article is a chart of bullet points on her policies. For those who say Clinton is "too detailed" this is a good list of brief(er) points.


http://highline.huffingtonpost.com/articles/en/hillary-clinton-policy-agenda/

Halls a day. No more days off...she has taken off more then just sickness. Trump hasn't taken a day off at all.

He misuses stats and collates polls that each are garbage individually.
And yes, got a lot of experience in stats (engineering, mgt and comm degrees) and some experience on polls in Canada.
Good polling is hard and most of those snap polls are simply B.A.D.

Seemingly, not one of these polls is interested in determining truth,
they're more interested in selling themselves (so, just like the media).

With the few good polls being flooded out by 20 bad polls, there is no incentive anymore to create good ones.

A part of this is that it is increasingly hard and expensive to get a representative sample of the voting population (with landlines disapeering and response rates plummeting) and less incentive to do so (since the media report all of them as cash regardless).

The underpolling of the under 35 and minorities compounded by basically expecting them not to vote, means
a good GOTV could easily make a 5 points difference with what Clinton is getting.