There’s more where this came from.

Today’s estimated Clinton win probability is 93%. The Meta-Margin is Clinton +3.3% and the red one-sigma band, indicating the likely range of electoral outcomes, is 290-348 EV. Betting markets are catching up, especially after yesterday’s newest wave of Trump stories, especially the groping story.

The insta-consensus among commentators is that somehow this event is a cause of Trump’s electoral doom. I think the logic is backwards – to me, the growing obviousness of his doom created an environment for this story to blow up. The genuinely new development is the impact for downticket – in both the Senate and the House.

In one common sentiment, catching Trump on tape bragging about groping women without consent is somehow a “last straw” that has caused supporters to desert him, starting off with GOP Reps. Jason Chaffetz and Barbara Comstock, and Utah governors Gary Herbert (current) and Jon Huntsman (former). Some PEC readers think this is a “black swan” – an unexpected anomaly that moves everything.

However, the idea that the recording comes as a surprise does not make sense. Trump’s record of misogynistic comments is abundant, and his unfiltered comments are part of his core appeal. As a reality television star with thousands of hours of candid footage, it was inevitable that such comments would come to light…though it’s taken a while.

My thought: There’s more where this came from.





http://election.princeton.edu/2016/10/08/what-color-is-the-swan/