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Latest Election Polls - 10/10/16 (Original Post) spanone Oct 2016 OP
What's with that LA Times/USC poll? gratuitous Oct 2016 #1
they are so far off that it seems ridiculous to report their findings. spanone Oct 2016 #2
538 adjusts the LA Times poll to +2 Clinton GopherGal Oct 2016 #3

gratuitous

(82,849 posts)
1. What's with that LA Times/USC poll?
Mon Oct 10, 2016, 05:27 PM
Oct 2016

I mean, I've heard of outliers, but it's anywhere from 8 to 17 points out of step with every other general election poll.

GopherGal

(2,008 posts)
3. 538 adjusts the LA Times poll to +2 Clinton
Mon Oct 10, 2016, 06:29 PM
Oct 2016

IIRC, I think I read somewhere that the LA Times poll weights the responses based upon reported 2012 vote. So if a state went 52-48 Obama and the poll respondents report 55-45 Obama, the responses of the 45% who claim/admit to having voted for Romney will be given greater weight than the responses of those who report voting for Obama to fix up the sample to line up with the known 2012 vote. Experts speculate that people who vote for losing candidates tend to misreport, thus falsely inflating the weight given to the loser's voters.

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