General Discussion

busterbrown

(8,515 posts) Tue Oct 11, 2016, 07:28 PM Oct 2016

538 got every state right in 2012.

How come MSM has it only by 7 or 8 ?

Oh, I know... Every time a Trump Surrogate is questioned by MSM TV Host?
The Surrogate skips around barely admitting that Trump is behind and always fucking finish
by ripping off a series of perpetual lies concerning Clinton's
1) Email Bullshit
2)Clinton Foundation Scummy Lies
3) Pay For Play Crap
4) General Dishonesty Shit
5) Ah Fuck it..

Without lifting an eyebrow...MSM Host thanks quest and cuts to an Ad.

Back To 538....Current Prediction? Clinton’s percentage of winning, now at 83.5%

4 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

538 got every state right in 2012. (Original Post) busterbrown Oct 2016 OP

I may be misreading your post, but... davekriss Oct 2016 #1

That's what winning means Major Nikon Oct 2016 #3

Matches the latest safeinOhio Oct 2016 #2

538 is showing a difference of about 6.3% in national polls. Buckeye_Democrat Oct 2016 #4

davekriss

(4,628 posts)

1. I may be misreading your post, but...

Reply to busterbrown (Original post)

Tue Oct 11, 2016, 07:39 PM

Oct 2016

The 83.5% is the probability of winning the 270 electoral votes needed for victory, not the ratio of the popular vote.

538 predicts Hillary Clinton will receive 49.1% of the popular vote vs. Drumph's 43.2%, which will likely result in 334 electoral votes for Hillary vs. 204 for the neo-fascist candidate. Pretty much a landslide with a fair chance that we win the Senate and House on Hillary's coat tails. O I am hoping so much for that!!

Major Nikon

(36,827 posts)

3. That's what winning means

Reply to davekriss (Reply #1)

Tue Oct 11, 2016, 08:18 PM

Oct 2016

The popular vote doesn't matter.

Wyoming gets 1 electoral college vote per 194,718 residents. Florida gets 1 electoral college vote per 685,862 residents.

safeinOhio

(32,727 posts)

2. Matches the latest

Reply to busterbrown (Original post)

Tue Oct 11, 2016, 07:44 PM

Oct 2016

betting odds.

Buckeye_Democrat

(14,858 posts)

4. 538 is showing a difference of about 6.3% in national polls.

Reply to busterbrown (Original post)

Tue Oct 11, 2016, 08:22 PM

Oct 2016

That translates to a very high probability of winning the election -- i.e., about 87.5% in 538's now-cast.

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