General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsTrump is losing NOT because of the tape or the women he groped
Please remind everyone that, beyond all of his other flaws, Trump is losing and will lose because of his disastrous performance on September 26, 2016 during the first presidential debate. Looking at Nate Silvers' probability of winning chart; leading up to that debate the race was tightening up, however, immediately after that fateful day his numbers started dropping precipitously, and that trend did not slow down even after the VP debate which Pence supposedly performed better.
That first debate had record number of viewers and most were curious to see if the Donald can be presidential. Once they got an earful of him, they realized that Clinton had to be president and lost interest in all subsequent debates, even their second debate which the groping topic was just hitting the news had similar ratings to Obama vs Romney's.
The US gave him one chance to prove to the world he could be president and he failed on September 26. Trump has only himself to blame for not preparing for the most important live television performance of his life. So much for his skills as a television celebrity.
w3n33dchange
(2 posts)I agree and noticed that too, its all downhill for him now
Coyotl
(15,262 posts)If there was a 1st debate effect, it was Hillary's impact. Trump was himself, the same guy the whole country has been subjected too all campaign long with live television coverage of his campaign.
Jon Fogerty
(45 posts)Actually, both Clinton and Trump ultimately performed as expected, however, most watching were curious to see if Trump can be presidential in that first debate and his performance confirmed to everyone that Trump was/is always going to be Trump and there was no "pivoting". He was able to hold it together for 20-30 minutes but he did not have the "stamina"! Furthermore, was anyone really surprised by Clinton in that debate?
The main reason why I started this post is that I am oddly upset with all the right-wing/conservative/Republican/surrogates/commentators saying that the MSM is out to get Trump by dragging out all of these lying women, when all that it probably does is crystallize voter's opinion of Trump, ala, Romney's video about the 50% from 2012. After the election, the entire right-wing will blame the media for Trump's loss and will never accept how poorly he performed on the biggest stage.
Coyotl
(15,262 posts)relative to the Presidency and even relative to candidacy for such a position. You need a mind that works, and he lacks that.
Trump is only half decent at reality T-V after 90% of what he does is on the cutting room floor. He's been a failure as demonstrating he's presidential since his announcement speech calling Mexicans rapist.
jberryhill
(62,444 posts)Peaches999
(118 posts)In statistics we can never know, and I would argue the tape wouldn't have been released had it not been for 9/26. The tape also led to a disastrous 2nd debate for trump, notwithstanding the poor, unprofessional moderating (this isn't a political criticism of the moderators, but one on their performance alone).
Brother Buzz
(36,434 posts)Trump began his crash the moment the gavel closed the republican convention, and the Democrats became his adversary instead of the namby-pamby republicans. The disastrous debates and the scandalous tape only accelerated his collapse. It will be a sight to behold to witness the moment he augers in.
world wide wally
(21,743 posts)He got lucky or he would be living under the bridge
underahedgerow
(1,232 posts)have destroyed himself much earlier in his lifetime. He'd have been the same tax evading, criminal groper no matter what his station in life. He's a failure that has squandered every penny that's passed through his hands.
He was never destined for success in anything, but wow, it's impressive he can fail in such an epic fashion, and it's entertaining in the very least.
Perhaps the bright side of the situation IS that he's exposed the weakness and flaws of the GOP for everyone to see, and perhaps, maybe, possibly, but doubtfully, we'll see a rise in character as potential candidates come of age. It would be such a relief for some people with character to get into GOP. It's not likely, but I am ever the cynical bitchy optimist.
silverweb
(16,402 posts)[font color="navy" face="Verdana"]I think he's losing more and losing faster because of that and all the other nasty things that have been coming out about him since. It's an accelerating cumulative effect.
Jarqui
(10,125 posts)No question that the most watched debate had a significant impact. The shift in the polls back that up. But we also see a significant and sudden 2pt drop in the polls for him when the groper tape came out for example.
So I'm not buying it's "THE" reason.
Even within that debate, much of it was founded on positions taken or things that happened before the debate.