I've been sweating that number all year, and specifically into early summer. Six months out is a key barometer. Minds have been made up toward the economy, etc.

The media fixates on day to day offerings but big picture foundational and situational variables are more significant to the outcome.

That was just prior to the 6 months target that I had in mind. Then he moved above 50% in June and hasn't dropped below. Major uptick in August, more or less corresponding to the convention. I wasn't sure if that played a role.

Regardless, Trump's hopes for a comeback have run into Obama's approval rating as a less obvious barrier.

I've been quietly worried about a stock market crash because that is one factor that could drop Obama's approval and also boost Trump. Fortunately it has remained mostly stable, just a few percent below all time highs. We still need normalcy in the next two weeks.

I was almost certain "BLM" et al after Dallas was a potential problem

Hillary's stumble scared the hell out me

There is a large segment of the population that will never approve of a democrat nominee regardless of how good things are going. To see Obama over %50 is outstanding by that measure.

How come it took so long in the 1st fucking place..Stupidity of so many in our country is just amazing!