General Discussion

underpants

(182,876 posts) Sat Oct 29, 2016, 08:40 PM Oct 2016

Tuesday

We'll have a good idea of how the media's email Comey-fest has effected things on Tuesday.
Nate Silver posted today that major campaign events typically aren't reflected in polls for a week but I think this will start showing on Tuesday. By next Friday we will know almost fully.

Some states, notably Virginia, are renowned for deciding very late but from the numbers I've seen about 9% of all voters nationwide have already voted. I saw 30% mentioned somewhere but that seems a bit unlikely.

Hillary weathered "the stumble" remarkably well. Hopefully that was a sign of truly how strong her support is.

Tuesday. *knocks on wood*

4 replies

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Tuesday (Original Post) underpants Oct 2016 OP

About 20 million people have voted gto Oct 2016 #1

Okay, 10% underpants Oct 2016 #2

I prefer next weekend Awsi Dooger Oct 2016 #3

I hadn't heard that about the indie's moving to Trump underpants Oct 2016 #4

gto

(24 posts)

1. About 20 million people have voted

Reply to underpants (Original post)

Sat Oct 29, 2016, 08:50 PM

Oct 2016

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN12T0J6

underpants

(182,876 posts)

2. Okay, 10%

Reply to gto (Reply #1)

Sat Oct 29, 2016, 08:54 PM

Oct 2016

Record 200 Million people are registered to vote
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/how-many-registered-voters-are-in-america-2016-229993

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)

3. I prefer next weekend

Reply to underpants (Original post)

Sat Oct 29, 2016, 09:00 PM

Oct 2016

Tuesday/Wednesday we'll have early indications from some polls that were in the field on Friday when the news broke.

IMO, the more meaningful samples capture opinion a few days later, after some settling.

It's possible Hillary will lose ground immediately then some of it will restore. That's the type of thing I believe in, a reversion to logical level as opposed to steady drift in the same direction. With preference so close to 50/50 overall it doesn't make sense for a late tide to be one-sided.

One problem is that independents were starting to move slightly toward Trump, before Comey. How those undecided independents view the story will be key to where the polling stands a week from now.

underpants

(182,876 posts)

4. I hadn't heard that about the indie's moving to Trump

Reply to Awsi Dooger (Reply #3)

Sat Oct 29, 2016, 09:04 PM

Oct 2016

I can't imagine this would move any sizeable number of them back.

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