Polls always converge as the election approaches. That was happening before the news broke friday. no poll has yet shown a negative result of the dump.

But keep trying. And don't lose count of those beads.

Look here: http://election.princeton.edu/

the polls tightened all last week. Since the weekend they have actually stabilized. But thanks for your concern.

TPM's poll aggregator moved from a 4.6 spread to 1.6 this morning, and Florida is now red. Worse, the polls won't fully register the Comey October Surprise until Wednesday -- by which point, there is a good chance that Trump will have moved ahead of Clinton. The real hit hasn't landed yet.

As the head-to-head national numbers sour, the battleground states will fade from cerulean to pink. Take North Carolina, for example -- the race is tighter than many imagine, and nearly all of the polls currently featured on 538 were taken before the Comey letter hit. Nevada and even Colorado are much closer than you probably think -- and again, those polls were pre-Comey.

Normally, I try to squelch my natural pessimism except when on my own site. But one must be realistic. Do you want cheerleading, or do you want facts?

Some of them use nearly the exact phrasing as the others. Perhaps you should invite them over to your site?

Straight up Hillary is elected. You in or not so sure now all of a sudden?

That isn't going to change all of a sudden just because the word 'email' is getting repeated on CNN. People have already read Hillary's emails. The folks who are going to get all BENGHAZIIIIIII over them, already have. No minds will change.

that are driven by emotion and not objective statistical state by state analysis.

n/t

WTF?

franchise, and Bill Paxton's character was always so high-strung - lol

Private Hudson!

All tough talk then when things got dicey he uttered those immortal words!

Vasquez and Hicks were the tough ones!

After about 40 minutes, it doesn't stop for a moment. The story and the crew are unmatched...All the actors/actresses were great, and the director, James Cameron, early in his career, hit a home run. I love that movie but it scares me, even though I have seen it a bunch of times and I know most of the dialogue

It was a genre shift from Alien done in a marvelous way. Still a joy to watch over and over again (which is not the case for Alien which works as a horror movie, but once you know what happens - it loses some of its impact).

In some ways it is a remake of Them - one of the best science fiction movies of the 1950s.

Its greatness makes what happened in the sequels all the more tragic.

also,... Aliens was made without the new kind of special effects that were created at about the time Spielberg made Jurassic Park . So we have a great film without the computer animation that is so common in today's action/ Sci Fi pictures. Cameron made it the old way. People were dressed in costumes and attacked the good guys.. The direction is so good, so fast, that we believe...and that is what counts.. ...............oh...........

(sorry for getting in to a discussion about a film, don't mean to offend anyone..this is off topic, but ...are there any off topic police around??)

The Alien movies are among my favourites.

The original was a "what you DON'T see scares the shit out of you" masterpiece.

Aliens was a war movie in outer space.

Alien3 and especially Alien Resurrection I could have done without, though Alien3 had its moments; ie Ripley's climactic death scene.

However, being former military, I cannot figure how her rank jumped around so much:

Warrant Officer in Alien. A warrant officer is a highly-specialist officer who knows about all there is to know about their career field. I never encountered many of them, since the Air Force doesn't have them.

Civilian advisor to the Colonial Marines in Aliens. Understandable, since her flight officer status was revoked by Weyland-Yutani corporatofascists.

Lieutenant in Alien3. Did she somehow earn a commission while in the Sulaco's cryotube between Acheron and her crash on Fury 161?

him on November 9, along with the republicans in the Senate

I think even the "moderate" republicans will realize this illegal precedent by Comey will come back to bite them in the ass. The duplicity of the FBI is an outrage the Congress and AG Lynch that they need to jump all over to prove that Comey's action were possibly illegal.

and this october surprise means little to hillary supporters as it clearly is an attempt by the FBI Director to sway the election and people won't stand for it

Right now we need to find a way to get out ahead of WikiLeaks and the FBI Investigation or it will cost us this election.

We can't hide from it or it makes us look guilty.

We can't deny it or it makes us look guilty.

We have to attack it head on and we have to do it quickly. We have to convince the American People that we've got nothing to hide and that we have always been honest in our dealings with them.

If anyone has been holding anything back on Trump they need to release it NOW because early voting can really hurt us if we don't change the narrative.

EVERYONE has said things that they regret and it's patently unfair that Hillary is going to be the only one to have to answer for it.

I've never been more ready for an election to come to an end; I'm physically and emotionally exhausted at this point.

At FiveThirtyEight.

Flip Florida and North Carolina to Trump - he has 270 electoral votes.

He has 259. But thanks for playing! he could flip NV as well and he would still only have 265.

Trump has 226.

Florida is 29, North Carolina is 15 - total of 44.

226 + 44 = 270. Math don't play.

Add up the EV's from all the red states on that map and you won't get 226. That number is an average from all the projection scenarios that 538 runs.

Based on the map, instead of:

Hillary -- 310.3
Donald - 226.6

It should read:

Hillary -- 323
Donald - 215

You do math better! I never questioned 538 legend.

Sorry!

Tightening polls and the horse race.

Put your ear to the ground...that stampeding sound you hear is angry, no, PISSED OFF Democrats stomping to the polls to vote early--for the first female POTUS in our history.

This pathetic attempt by Putin and Trump to interfere with the election has failed, dare I say "Bigly."

Comey's reputation is in tatters, and Trump is gonna lose.

I don't think we pick up enough seats to control all of Congress so expect the Republicans to dig in and stretch this out with the help of the MSM until the mid-terms. I expect 2 years of complete gridlock.

With such a well thought out and beautifully written out post like that. How can one argue?

Otherwise, you got nothing.

... flip Florida and North Carolina to Trump - he has 270 electoral votes.


RCP Poll Average Florida: Trump vs. Clinton

While the averages for North Carolina polls appear solid for Hillary, the latest poll in the average has Trump up by 3 points.

I never questioned what 538 put up, but it was misleading.

I just hope I remain wrong.

In battlegrounds like Nevada and North Carolina, she's in a great position to sew up those states which makes it very difficult for Trump - even with this recent Comey thing.

Just keep the GOTV going ...

We gotta talk...

To defend their positions

Just because I haven't monitored this board every second of the day doesn't mean I've gone anywhere.

Where has the lead "almost evaporated"?

She will win easily.

Sky is certainly falling rather often this weekend. Henny Penny knows what's best for electoral strategy.

might effect those who were having to hold their nose to vote for Hillary, they might not vote at all. You would have to be a special kind of idiot if this caused you to move your vote for Trump. All in all, I don't expect this to be the landslide but I still have just enough faith left in my fellow Americans to believe they will do the right thing.

I would never, not in a million years, vote for Emperor Trumpatine.

You might want to consider de-caf until after the election.

Good Lawd, they never stop!

12 or 14 points was always too optimistic to be real
its was always going to be a point or two by election day
Don't despair, the electoral map still favors the dems and HRC is still the favorite to win

The electoral math was always strongly in her favor. Trump would have to almost sweep the swing states to win.

This is just one.. but there will be many.

Therefore, no.

... oops, I'm so sorry I swore. It'll never fucking happen again.

BTW, this post was not aimed at a DU member. I just spilled hot coffee on myself. But how I remained typing at the same time is truly puzzling.

-Puzzler

it generated? Trying to stir the pot? Trying to undermine our support of HRC? Better luck next time.

I am going by what I have seen on MSNBC and various Internet sites...no, not Breitbart! Last week, news sources were talking about the double-digit lead Hillary had over Trump. Now they're saying it's "neck-and-neck."

Save it with the "troll" bullshit or the "are you supporting Trump now" or "not going to vote" Bravo Sierra.

I have voted in EVERY Presidential election since I became eligible to vote in 1984...and have been solidly Democratic.

Yes, this is emotional for me. Why? Because Trump GENUINELY FRIGHTENS ME and I do NOT want him becoming President and instituting a corporatofascist regime. If you think George W. Bush was bad - and he was - he will be nothing compared to Trump in terms of erasing civil liberties and pre-emptive wars. I honestly think the man is mad and there will be no limit to what he will do to TRY to make sure the election falls his way, and remember how much monetary and corporate power he has behind him, and a complete lack of moral scruples.

So you can call me all the names you like. It does not change a thing.

We cannot afford to be complacent when dealing with someone as patently manipulative as Trump.

For the record, on Election Day my wife and I will be going to the polls to vote before work and we plan to vote STRAIGHT DEMOCRATIC.

I expected when I posted that there might be some sympathy or at the very least "I understand how you feel, but..."

I sure as hell didn't expect to be insulted or "trolling."

As for not answering until now, I'm not tethered to my computer. I posted my OP this morning at 11.40 AM. I just turned the verdammt thing back on within the last 90 minutes. It is 7.50 PM local time.

Sorry my lack of alacrity in answering seemed to upset some of you so.

I watched it blip down a little this morning, then I watched it blip right back up again a little later. If all the Orange Menace can do is try to keep re-hashing what he's already hashed, I don't get too upset.

My REAL fear is that he'll activate his secret weapon -- the uber-surrogate that'll change the course of western civilization, and seal the fate of the country. I speak, of course, of Louie Gohmert.

This is an election unlike any other.

Hillary is more than qualified to serve as President.

However, she is facing someone who is narcisstic and sociopathic, and who has no compunctions about using whatever weapons of deception he has in his "bag of tricks" to sway the electorate.

Unfortunately, Hillary has significant pockets of the population who do not trust her...Trump has tapped into that, and things like Comey's balls-up only stoke that.

you should be familiar with the uptick in what is commonly referred to as "concern trolling" around election time.

Don't take it personally, that's my advice. We're all on the same team.

I had thought so too until reading some of the replies I got.

One would have thought I'd committed treason, when I was just voicing my concerns in what I THOUGHT was a friendly environment.

Yes, I am familiar with what you call "concern trolling around election time," and I must say I had a LOT fewer concerns in 2012 or 2008.

Romney had not gotten the support of so many people who would say they were in favour of armed revolution if he didn't win.

McCain made the colossal balls-up of putting Sarah Palin on his ticket.

This election is completely unlike any of those.

Well, thank you for your concern.

Should I have elaborated you think?

I've seen zero evidence of that, and CNN was trying to pump this "renewed horserace" horseshit even before the Comey deal.

My concerns have not changed, because Hillary is facing a candidate with an army of followers for whom very little is out of bounds to ensure he gets the White House by any means they deem necessary.

It was not that way with Romney (he was too dull, honestly) or McCain, despite his putting far-right flamethrower Sarah Palin on his ticket.

The polls that had her up by double digits were always in my opinion, inflated. As we get closer to election day the polls are going to naturally tighten up.

Now, the press being good at what they do, are going to try and make a story out of this. What sounds better as a headline?

Polls are naturally tightening up as the election grows closer.

Or

Hillary Clinton's major lead she enjoyed all season has begun to evaporate!!!eleventy1!!!


I'm gonna go with number two, because that is what is going to sell. It also makes people think it's going to be close so they have to tune in every night. I'm not going to sit at home on election night because I think she has this in the bag. But I'm also not going to freak out and buy into what the press is trying to sell me either.

This of course is my own opinion, and ya know what they say about that!

Well, almost nothing, the GrOPers will likely nominate America's tallest troll in 2020.