http://www.scotusblog.com/2012/02/the-court-in-a-second-obama-term/
A favorite topic of mine has always been potential nominations to the Court, both as to who might be picked and whether the nomination will or won’t succeed. But trying to prognosticate a few months ahead of a retirement is too simple; it is time to try several years out. This is the first in a series of posts about what would likely happen to the Court’s composition in the next Administration.
In the modern era, incumbent Presidents tend to be re-elected. George W. Bush, Bill Clinton, and Ronald Reagan were, though George H.W. Bush and Jimmy Carter were not. The economy is also ticking up. So my first post will work from the assumption that President Obama will get a second term. (Given the depth of that analysis, you can tell that this is a blog about the Supreme Court, not about electoral politics.)
The odds are good that Justice Ginsburg will retire in the third year of a second Obama term. That is only a presumption, and I doubt that the Justice herself has made concrete plans. The re-election itself is highly uncertain, and much can change in one’s thinking over the next three years. Nonetheless, the Justice has sent signals that correspond with a likely retirement at that time. When asked about retirement, she has noted the parallels between her service and that of Justice Brandeis (the first Jewish Justice), who similarly was appointed at age sixty. Brandeis retired at age eighty-two. Justice Ginsburg will turn eighty-two in March 2015, the third year of a second Obama term.
Waiting beyond that year also carries risks for Justice Ginsburg’s legacy. Justices tend to retire strategically to permit ideologically sympathetic presidents to name their successors. Assuming President Obama’s re-election, early to mid-2015 is the last practical opportunity to retire while ensuring that he can appoint her successor. 2016 is an election year, and there is a substantial risk – given how broken confirmation politics have become – that Senate Republicans would attempt to block any confirmation that year (as Democrats would do if the tables were reversed). The prospect of a Democratic victory in 2016 is of course very uncertain, so if she did not retire in 2015 the Justice would face the prospect of a Republican President naming her successor unless she stayed on the Court until she was nearly ninety.
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