They have been ripped by the media for the Bain attacks. But they are working. This was supposed to be a bad month for Obama, but the polls are showing otherwise. On "Morning Joe" they just showed how as people learn about Romney's true business record, his supposed strength becomes a weakness.

This poll consolidated what we learned yesterday from the NBC poll. Obama is doing well in the swing states. But there is still a long way to go.

Romney's business record is a terrible qualifier to be President.

naming names and asking voters to flood John Mica with messages about construction jobs, and John Boehner with messages about public sector jobs and the rest of the President's American Jobs Act, which Boehner has stalled for almost a year.

Otherwise, monthly employment reports would erode these swing-state voter gains.

Next Friday we'll get the June BLS employment report. In May, the public sector was down 13,000 jobs, and the construction sector was down 28,000. These stats can be traced directly to Mica and Boehner; how bad will they be next Friday?

His only strength (business) should be outed as a sham.

Registered voters?

(R)asmussen is the only national pollster of big name recognition to use likely voter models. This is wrong. Because this far out from the election, it's impossible to determine who is a likely voter. MSNBC did a whole segment on this once with regard to what a sham it was to do a likely voter model this far out.

IMO, (R)asmussen just uses this method to rig its polls so that old "Scotty boy" can keep getting speaking gigs at GOP fund raisers.


Nobody knows who a "likely voter" is in June for an election in November, when discussing numbers of this scope.

Polls do not count or heavily undercount those without landlines. Cell/mobile phone numbers are generally only marginally included in polling.

Populations with high cell/mobile usage but low landlines include students and generally anyone under the age of 30 as well as lower-income Hispanics. Obama was successful in igniting young people and getting them to the polls in 2008. If he can do half as well with that group this time that will be a plus. As well his decision on not deporting young people who may have come here illegally is already showing significant payback in the Latino community.

But the Reichwing are going to buy every tv and radio station, every newspaper, every website, etc. they can to drown out Obama's message of continued hope for the future.

The myth about cell phones is not true. Sorry.

There have been various studies done on the landline/cell phone divide and every one I have seen shows some impact. I'm not saying it represents a 10% difference but, in a close election, it can be important.

Here is a link to one study done by the Pew Center in conjunction with the 2010 election cycle: http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1761/cell-phones-and-election-polls-2010-midterm-elections

Walker won.

These elections are not hard to call, if you know where to find accurate data and are objective in your analysis.

I love MSNBC and Ed Schultz. But during the Walker recall, I thought he was hyping support and outcomes too much. I kept watching the show and wondering " what numbers is he looking at?" And "Does he have information not available to the rest of us?"

All of the polls unanimously had Scott Walker in the lead. He never trailed. On election day, he hit his RCP average polling number with scary accuracy. It was not a hard outcome to call.

Sometimes all of us have to understand that we can't ignore news and facts just because we don't like them.

When watching Ed Schultz leading up to the Walker election, I thought that was what he was doing. He may have even had viewers who had a major surprising let down that night, over something any remote political hack could have told them was a near sure thing to occur.

The RCP average was within 0.1% point of the vote total.

This has become standard... throw out all poll results one doesn't like before the election, then be surprised that the election didn't conform to the polls one liked.

If you are objective, the RCP average has been scary accurate when predicting results, both in 2008 and 2010. Polling is generally good. The RCP average nailed the Scott Walker recall election on the number. It was very good in the 2008 Presidential race too.

Quinnipiac is a very good pollster. NBC had the same numbers. Both pollsters were in the field at the exact same time. The two results back each other up almost identically. President Obama is in the lead.


Its interesting that PPP is called a Democratic pollster. But their numbers for the President in Ohio are actually worse than what Q and NBC got. All 3 have the President leading. Good news. But this race is far from over.

Look at battleground states in 2004 for another great example.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_swing_states,_2004

Hard to win if you don't win Ohio... Obama won the state by 104,000 votes last time.
need to maintain that margin, at the least. I assume we'll see Obama spend alot of
time in Ohio.

I won't feel more comfortable until Obama regularly exceeds the 49-50% margin. Undecideds can break as much as 75% toward the challenger, so if the incumbent is not within a safe zone (where <=25% of the undecided voters would put them over 50%), then the polls may not be as favorable as they appear.

...for about ten minutes, anyway. Thanks!