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NRaleighLiberal

(60,015 posts)
Fri Mar 3, 2017, 03:23 PM Mar 2017

Fascinating. TPM by Marshall - "The Innocent Explanation". thoughts?

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/the-innocent-explanation

By JOSH MARSHALL Published MARCH 3, 2017, 12:03 PM EDT

I've been writing about Donald Trump's mysterious connections to Russia connections to Russia for close to eight months. Over that time, I've occasionally heard from law enforcement or intelligence types who say, "You're on to something ... Keep going." To which I've wanted to reply, "Really?"

I say this half in jest but only half. I've always been highly skeptical of the more outlandish theories about Trump and Russia. Whether this is naïveté or the skepticism of experience I'm not sure. But whether we're investigators or reporters or just people trying to make sense of the world we live in, it is important that we try to find the simplest explanation that accounts for all the facts we know. Relatedly, we should look for explanations which require as few leaps of speculation or unattested and fantastical facts as possible. It's a life version of Occam's Razor.

The simplest explanation isn't necessarily the right one. But in the spirit of Occam's Razor, we should prefer it because it usually will be. To state the key point for clarity and emphasis, it is not the simplest explanation. It it is the simplest explanation which accounts for all the known facts. That distinction makes all the difference in the world.

With this prologue and with the above in mind, here is what I would call the innocent explanation of the Trump/Russia story. I don't think it is necessarily the true story. Or, to put it more precisely, I don't think it is necessarily the whole story. But I think it accounts for most of the what we know so far.

_______________

snip - long. He lays it all out. interested in your thoughts about it.
12 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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leftstreet

(36,109 posts)
1. Interesting!
Fri Mar 3, 2017, 03:43 PM
Mar 2017

Excellent points. Especially the fallout of Trump's overriding self-interest. Which in a strange way could explain what the author notes, the incredible amount of STUPID people associated with Trump.

Thanks for posting

ogsball

(356 posts)
2. What I don't get is where Steve Bannon fits in
Fri Mar 3, 2017, 03:54 PM
Mar 2017

Trump is clearly a globalist. Bannon rants against them. Maybe I don't understand what a globalist is?

wordpix

(18,652 posts)
3. idea Trump somehow innocently does biz w/ Russian crime bosses laundering $
Fri Mar 3, 2017, 03:54 PM
Mar 2017

is way out of line. Trump bought a FL property for $40 million in 2008, slaps on paint, property doesn't sell for 2 yrs., then along comes Russian Fertilizer King who buys it for $100 million.

Just an innocent little TrumpCo. sale of real estate, right? And did Trump pay taxes on the capital gain?

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/new-commerce-secretary-at-nexus-of-lucrative-trump-russian-deal-886220355575

 

randome

(34,845 posts)
5. Marshall is only pointing out the least damaging possibilities.
Fri Mar 3, 2017, 04:02 PM
Mar 2017

He also notes that there are a lot of other aspects of this that don't fit in the 'innocent' viewpoint. I think precision is important, and it's best to not reflexively assume the worst or else we'll over-reach and be easily nullified.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]TECT in the name of the Representative approves of this post.[/center][/font][hr]

wordpix

(18,652 posts)
10. I realize but sorry, I'm not getting ahead when I read the dossier analysis
Fri Mar 3, 2017, 05:00 PM
Mar 2017

#trumprussia and "other" here and everywhere.

VERY clear the contacts are part of a Big Picture going back to Trump bankruptcy, biz deals including money laundering for Russian oligarchs/crime bosses.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1RbpBxJ3QNyvts_w16UcSSGeH7cSrXK9U3wIq0OOq-Xs/preview

 

KingCharlemagne

(7,908 posts)
6. Good read. Thanks for posting. As Marshall says, this
Fri Mar 3, 2017, 04:30 PM
Mar 2017

explanation does not require murky conspiracy theories to cohere and make sense. And it does explain why Trump has so adamantly resisted releasing his tax returns.

kentuck

(111,103 posts)
7. Follow your gut.
Fri Mar 3, 2017, 04:55 PM
Mar 2017

Who didn't feel in their gut, the day after the election, that something was terribly wrong?

Then, his almost immediate reluctance to criticize Putin or say anything bad about Russia, all the while criticizing NATO and many of our allies.

Then, hiring Paul Manafort to be his campaign manager, with his connections in the Ukraine and in Russia and his pay-offs from the criminals in Moscow.

All this, after we were told that the different intelligence agencies had verified that Russia had interfered in our elections?

Then his refusal to be honest or transparent with the American people. His failure to show his tax returns and the unknowns about where he had his business interests.

Then, more and more Russian connections, including some he hired for his Cabinet, including Tillerson and Ross, and their shady dealings with the Russians.

With our own government intercepting phone calls that indicated a secret Russian connection, that was being kept secret from the American people and his own Vice President and Cabinet and the Congress.

And the leaks that kept coming.

It would be very foolish and naive to think there is an innocent explanation and there's really not much there, in my opinion.

NRaleighLiberal

(60,015 posts)
8. I agree. I understand what Marshall is doing as well. Whatever approach is taken
Fri Mar 3, 2017, 04:56 PM
Mar 2017

has to be clean, precise and based on evidence and facts.

I think that we all, in our gut, knew something was wrong only a few hours into election night.

Raine1967

(11,589 posts)
12. I think this is less innocent and more a simplistic one. That's not a bad thing.
Fri Mar 3, 2017, 05:22 PM
Mar 2017

It's not simplistic like a children's book.

There is going to be a LOT more that comes out, this right here is a very good analysis of things we know.

Trump painted himself in a corner because he really could not live with being broke.

MedusaX

(1,129 posts)
9. Not the whole picture....
Fri Mar 3, 2017, 05:00 PM
Mar 2017

Clearly, 45's world view / "reality" has been shaped by 7 decades of personal experiences and the experiences of those he associates with.....

The author accurately identifies the cause/effect relationships behind 45's established behavior patterns and in isolation (i.e. The private sector) there is nothing scandalous about someone engaging in transactions & supporting policies that ultimately benefit themselves & their associates.
This is why candidates have differing positions on Economic related issues ... and why voters choose one over another... purely on the basis of how it will effect them (& their associates). Acts that are innocent & natural for humans

HOWEVER.....

The questions that need to be answered are:

1. Which members of the current administration and/or members of the Trump/Pence campaign team, if any,
have been offered by (or on behalf of) a foreign govt
any: token, benefit, reward, or interest of value
in return for having (or promising to) engaged in specific actions &/or ensuring desired outcomes?

2. If so, who has agreed to accept or has already received that which was offered?
3.What were the terms of each agreement?
(Who, what, when, where, how)
4. Who facilitated the negotiations/transactions?
5.Who was aware of such arrangements?
6.When did they become aware?

7. Which members of the administration/campaign currently stand to substantially benefit personally or financially from any policy decisions which may made by this administration?

8. Which members of the administration/campaign have an agreement with any domestic entity or individual in which their formal position & influence on specific policy decisions have been pre-determined in exchange for a specified "value"?


Just because 45 is a self-centered, self serving businessman who believes that, as President, it is his right to make National decisions based solely on the criteria of what he believes will result in outcomes that are in his /associates best interest-- does not eliminate the very real possibility that 45 &/or his Team have agreed to use their offices/positions of power in a specific manner in return for personal "benefits/ value" which have been offered by either foreign or domestic entities.

Vlad does not care HOW 45 goes about lifting sanctions & fulfilling other requests ... only that the specific OUTCOMES are achieved......


Raine1967

(11,589 posts)
11. "The Innocent Explanation" is a fair analysis. It's a really good article.
Fri Mar 3, 2017, 05:19 PM
Mar 2017

What a lot of people (outside the beltway and outside intel ) might not be aware of is this:

People who run into financial woes have a REALLY hard time getting a NatSec clearance because they could easily have been compromised. Bankruptcies are a HUGE red flag.

When Trump fell into serious financial issues -- he was compromised. He was compromised when he was blacklisted from American banks and has to use foreign ones. His need to remain on top led him down this path and he had no way out.




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