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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsTrump Russia dossier key claim 'verified'
Paul Wood of the BBC previously reported on the FISA warrant back in January. This is his latest in-depth analysis, based on information from a number of sources in the intelligence community. Definitely worth reading.
Members of the Obama administration believe, based on analysis they saw from the intelligence community, that the information exchange claimed by Steele continued into the election.
"This is a three-headed operation," said one former official, setting out the case, based on the intelligence: Firstly, hackers steal damaging emails from senior Democrats. Secondly, the stories based on this hacked information appear on Twitter and Facebook, posted by thousands of automated "bots", then on Russia's English-language outlets, RT and Sputnik, then right-wing US "news" sites such as Infowars and Breitbart, then Fox and the mainstream media. Thirdly, Russia downloads the online voter rolls.
The voter rolls are said to fit into this because of "microtargeting". Using email, Facebook and Twitter, political advertising can be tailored very precisely: individual messaging for individual voters.
"You are stealing the stuff and pushing it back into the US body politic," said the former official, "you know where to target that stuff when you're pushing it back."
nikibatts
(2,198 posts)The CIA has the evidence but does not want to share with the public. There is a renegade CIA group that works to protect 45? the FBI is willing to follow the evidence they have but the CIA is not sharing or helping.
I may have misunderstood but that's my impression.
JTFrog
(14,274 posts)At the Pentagon, theyre privately calling the former Marine officer and fighter pilot whos supposed to keep his eye on Defense Secretary Jim Mattis the commissar, according to a high-ranking defense official with knowledge of the situation. Its a reference to Soviet-era Communist Party officials who were assigned to military units to ensure their commanders remained loyal.
Bernardo de La Paz
(49,036 posts)1) Patience.
2) Watergate took two years to unfold, and this is bigger.
3) There are jurisdictional rules that hamper some parts of investigations. There are ways to overcome such barriers but they take an extra step.
4) The FBI is naturally cautious, especially with explosive high level malfeasance. Comey's October letter about emails is "the exception that proves the rule".
5) The Intelligence Community is even more cautious.
6) The renegade group is in the FBI. The New York office has agents who regularly leak to Giulliani.
7) Patience. It's coming out. The coverup will fail. Drip, drip, drip.
Nitram
(22,877 posts)operating in the US and the investigation of Trump's Russian ties, because they probably overlap.
Alpeduez21
(1,755 posts)"The voter rolls are said to fit into this because of "microtargeting". Using email, Facebook and Twitter, political advertising can be tailored very precisely: individual messaging for individual voters."
Republicans care more about power than American values.
uponit7771
(90,364 posts)... there's more than one way to hack the election !!
GliderGuider
(21,088 posts)In order to hack an election legally, you simply hack the voters, not the votes.
Cross-reference Voter rolls with Facebook profiles; Determine the target's psychology from analyzing their "likes"; select the approppriate message for their psychology. Put the messsge where the target is most likely to see it. Presto, a vote.
It's not 100% foolproof, but statistically sufficient. And unlike hacking the votes themselves, it's a legal technique, once you have the voter rolls.
On the same day, a then little-known British company based in London sent out a press release: "We are thrilled that our revolutionary approach to data-driven communication has played such an integral part in President-elect Trump's extraordinary win," Alexander James Ashburner Nix was quoted as saying. Nix is British, 41 years old, and CEO of Cambridge Analytica. He is always immaculately turned out in tailor-made suits and designer glasses, with his wavy blonde hair combed back from his forehead. His company wasn't just integral to Trump's online campaign, but to the UK's Brexit campaign as well.
Remarkably reliable deductions could be drawn from simple online actions. For example, men who "liked" the cosmetics brand MAC were slightly more likely to be gay; one of the best indicators for heterosexuality was "liking" Wu-Tang Clan. Followers of Lady Gaga were most probably extroverts, while those who "liked" philosophy tended to be introverts. While each piece of such information is too weak to produce a reliable prediction, when tens, hundreds, or thousands of individual data points are combined, the resulting predictions become really accurate.
What Kosinski did not know at the time: SCL is the parent of a group of companies. Who exactly owns SCL and its diverse branches is unclear, thanks to a convoluted corporate structure, the type seen in the UK Companies House, the Panama Papers, and the Delaware company registry. Some of the SCL offshoots have been involved in elections from Ukraine to Nigeria, helped the Nepalese monarch against the rebels, whereas others have developed methods to influence Eastern European and Afghan citizens for NATO. And, in 2013, SCL spun off a new company to participate in US elections: Cambridge Analytica.
I will never trust a national election again.
Bernardo de La Paz
(49,036 posts)The Blow-It-All-Up Billionaires
http://highline.huffingtonpost.com/articles/en/mercers/
Steve Bannons data firm in talks for lucrative White House contracts
Cambridge Analytica is backed by Robert Mercer, whose daughter is on the Trump transition team, while Trump's soon-to-be chief strategist, Steve Bannon, is on the board
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/cambridge-analytica-steve-bannon-robert-rebekah-mercer-donald-trump-conflicts-of-interest-white-a7435536.html
KittyWampus
(55,894 posts)That is a conclusion being jumped to.
Profiles in Cambridge Analytics are drawn from social media quizzes and history.
In the same way that data mining can precisely micro-target communities for gerrymandering.
GliderGuider
(21,088 posts)Profiles that are data-mined aren't as useful if you don't know how the target may be thinking of voting. that's where the voter rolls come in - it allows much more selective targeting.
One would scarcely expect CA to acknowledge something like that. We do know they were involved in the US election, though.
KittyWampus
(55,894 posts)And I see no evidence presented to prove that Russia hacking into voter registrations was actually used in any targeted fashion.
The question I have after reading this is:
Is there proof that Russians collaborated with Cambridge Analytics?
Cambridge Analytics didn't need to hack into voter roles.
It is, so far, all allegation - and not just the parts concerning Donald Trump and his people.
For instance, the US intelligence agencies said last October that the voter rolls had been "scanned and probed" from a server in Russia.
GliderGuider
(21,088 posts)uponit7771
(90,364 posts)... changing of the totals.
ANY interference, direct or indirect, by an outside actor for the sake of changing votes (via whatever means) is actionable enough.
Another reason why citizen united is horrible because it allows for such ...
I don't want to get bogged down in semantics
KittyWampus
(55,894 posts)GliderGuider
(21,088 posts)Campaign activity conducted by foreign governments is generally frowned on by polite society.
KittyWampus
(55,894 posts)And it's fundamentally dishonest to say that links to what Cambridge Analytics does.
Data mining is being used. Apparently Clinton's campaign went with old fashioned tv advertising which is very expensive and inaccurate.
Democrats need to understand data mining and start using it.
GliderGuider
(21,088 posts)If two jigsaw pieces fit together perfectly, it's not dishonest to speculate that they belong together.
Nothing has been investigated in public yet. I'm free to speculate all I want, sorry.
Russian money, Russian geopolitical interests, Russian hackers, Cambridge Analytica, and the Trump campaign are all in this toxic stew together.
I very firmly believe that this will be proven out in time.
KittyWampus
(55,894 posts)I will say it one more time: Cambridge Analytics doesn't need Russian help with data mining.
Democrats wouldn't need outside help if they finally decide to enter the 21st century and use data/mining and social media for micro-targeting.
Maybe some actual evidence will present itself that Russian hacking into voter registration files in a few states was used.
GliderGuider
(21,088 posts)Evidence will emerge one way or the other.
I'm curious what's behind your vehemence on this question?
uponit7771
(90,364 posts)... something amiss is not "jamming" anything together.
There's WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAy more than enough circumstantial evidence here to conduct an intense investigation and to even speculate that the minipootin team cheated to win.
This isn't hard
uponit7771
(90,364 posts)uponit7771
(90,364 posts)uponit7771
(90,364 posts)... talking to gumpers on this.
Look, no...
NO
The US voting system is NOT as secure as it should be for free and fair elections, not at all... there are a multitude of ways to interfere with US elections and it looks like the KGOP wants to keep it that way.