to stop Republicans from filling the vacancy with whoever 50+1 of them agree on.

You seriously think they wouldn't fuck us over anyway if they got the chance to completely tilt the court?

Might as well rip the bandaid off and hope it helps us in the 2018 senate races.

That's why you make a deal now so you have the filibuster for when Ginsburg or Kennedy retires.

You'd need 3 Republicans to promise not to nuke the filibuster for any remaining Trump nominees in exchange for Gorsuch being confirmed.

to fill this vacancy. However I think there is at best a 60% chance they would be successful in going nuclear to fill a Kennedy/Ginsberg/Breyer vacancy. The dynamic would simply be different, that would be a generation defining vacancy.

Remember, Republicans are not some monolith, look at the healthcare fiasco. They have a small Senate majority, and a few defections by moderates like Collins would doom the effort.

We actually have something of a chance to notch a win in the next vacancy, unlike this fight which appears to be doomed. We need to use our limited power wisely, I fear Senate Democrats are making a huge mistake that we may regret for decades.

being confirmed this time.

I don't think voters would react very well if they lied.

Also these are moderate Republican senators in purple states that get elected by a lot of moderate pro choice republican voters, independents, and even some democrats... Lying about it would really be damaging to them politically.

Just those that are willing to lie to your face and stab you in the back the second they get the chance. Just like their leaders. You really think they would give up the chance to change the balance of power for a generation or more?

BTW, enhanced voter surpression (50 state voter ID, end all early voting, paperless voting, authorized poll watchers and increased voter purges) would more than make up for any votes lost.

I already explained why they wouldnt lie, and not all Republicans are as evil as you seem to think. You're extremely partisan.

There are moderates. Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski are both pro-choice.... and there are several more.

Democrats in the Senate majority allowed hearings and confirmation for GOP appointees Kennedy, Thomas, and Souter (who didn't turn out to be as conservative as they expected). They wouldn't even give Garland the time of day for meetings. If they had the chance to shift the balance of a court, no F*cking promise is going to stop them from doing it.

You give Republicans too much credit, it won't be easy for them to pull off the nuclear option this time, in a more controversial vacancy, they might not be able to do it, as more moderate members balk.

So our choice is using the filibuster now when it is sure to fail, or using it for Ginsberg/Kennedy and possibly blocking a Trump pick, or at least extracting maximum political pain if they are to fill a generation defining vacancy, which the current one is decidedly not.

She does 30 pushups a day. Real pushups, like they do in the military. Will probably be serving when she is over 100.

Anyone who has seen Justice Ginsburg in real life knows what you are saying is not true.

I don't. I noticed there are no quotes from Justice Ginsburg about what she does. I also noticed no pictures, just cartoons....

I may not be around to voice an opinion. He stresses the hell out of me.

I'm expecting an "accident" before the midterms.

Let's hope RBG lives another 4-7 years at least.

There are still some "r" senators who exhibit grown-up behavior. If McCain, Graham et al truly care about the Senate, they would NOT vote to go nuclear. Just saying.

But if doesn't and your scenario pans out .. Republicans can always use the nuclear option then even if we roll over now.

So let them use the nuclear option. Filibuster is BS anyway

But 2020 looks very good for us

Dems have 11 seats to defend while Repubs have to hold on to 22
https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/reference/two_column_table/Class_II.htm

That's the opportunity we need to take advantage of.