General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWhat are the odds that the Repubs will win the Senate?
And if they do, how important is it that we have a Democratic President?
The Democrats have an uphill run. They have 23 open seats and the Repubs only have 10 so there is a very good chance the Repubs will win back the Senate. Very few expect the Democrats to take back the House. It doesn't take much imagination to envision the legislative agenda of the right-wing for the next two to four years. How important is it to have a Democratic President to keep them in check? Very.
WCGreen
(45,558 posts)kentuck
(111,110 posts)Hanging in there, WC?
lovemydog
(11,833 posts)Get out the vote!
kentuck
(111,110 posts)I think that is a question we should explore.
jerseyjack
(1,361 posts)NoMoreWarNow
(1,259 posts)because he's disappointed many liberals in many ways by not going after Wall St or the Bush administration? Because of his sickening drone war? Because he has continued the wasteful Afghanistan war? Because of his unprecedented prosecution of whistleblowers? Because the economy is still in the doldrums? Because Obama has not done a good job of promoting his policies?
Fair or not, there are many potential reasons why Dems would not be excited about Obama. I could go on and on. I think a Romney presidency would be a disaster, but neither am I thrilled about what Obama has done.
democrat_patriot
(2,774 posts)I think Democrats in general are going to vote for Obama - 88% approval rating.
I have NEVER heard a professed democrat outside of DU even hint at not voting for Obama.
byeya
(2,842 posts)are not going to vote for anyone for president because Obama was failed to try to live up to his
progressive campaign rhetoric.
Quite a number of acquaintences and friends point to the make up of the Cabinent who are overwhelmingly
pro-corporate.
There are decades-long Democrats who won't be pulling the Obama lever or anyone else's.
emulatorloo
(44,193 posts)Serious question.
MineralMan
(146,336 posts)If they can't see the problem, they're not capable of seeing much of anything.
a kennedy
(29,719 posts)lots didn't show up to vote and the state got the weasel walker.
EC
(12,287 posts)Many stupid Dems thought that the recall was not proper so voted for him. I call them stupid because they were.
a kennedy
(29,719 posts)Name Party Votes Vote %
Walker , Scott GOP 1,128,159 52%
Barrett , Tom Dem 1,005,008 47%
Langer , Jim Ind 10,531 0%
James , James Ind 8,287 0%
No Candidate/Virgil Lib 6,738 0%
http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/105000829.html
flamingdem
(39,332 posts)Remember that dark money will be FLOODING those races
customerserviceguy
(25,183 posts)If you look state-by-state, holding the Senate (and I even count a 50-50 as a 'hold', if Joe Biden is re-elected) is a long shot. Now, we'll still be able to fillibuster, but if reconciliation is used by Romney and the Rethuglicans to gut the ACA, I don't see how we stop them.
vi5
(13,305 posts)Does that apply to things passed through reconcilliation? I know he had to sign the ACA, but I wasn't sure if that was just ceremonial or not.
PoliticAverse
(26,366 posts)ProgressiveEconomist
(5,818 posts)the Taxpayer Refund and Relief Act 1999 and the Marriage Tax Relief Reconciliation Act 2000.
See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reconciliation_(United_States_Congress)
MannyGoldstein
(34,589 posts)and fought like sonsabitches to end this depression, we'd be moaning about only being able to pick up 10 seats instead of fretting over how many of the 23 we'll lose.
emulatorloo
(44,193 posts)MannyGoldstein
(34,589 posts)After all, it was the Confederacy that made them fail, no?
I'm a Democrat. I hire (vote for) Democrats to fight for me. They tell me what they will do, i campaign, contribute, and vote for them, and I expect 'em to do it. When they fail, and particularly when they don't even try real hard (as far as I can tell), they need to be held responsible. Just like Lincoln's generals.
emulatorloo
(44,193 posts)almost everything Dems have tried to do since 2008. Anything that has gotten done (and good things were done) was done in spite of Republicans.
You on the other hand are unwilling or unable to grasp this.
Republicans are not part of your worldview. You never talk about them.
As far as I can tell they do not exist for you.
MannyGoldstein
(34,589 posts)I vote for Democrats to go after Republicans.
Am I correct in understanding that you feel that Lincoln was unfair to Generals McDowell, McClellan, Burnside, et al? He should have railed against the Confederacy instead of finding generals that would fight and win?
emulatorloo
(44,193 posts)MannyGoldstein
(34,589 posts)That I did not respond to?
emulatorloo
(44,193 posts)Once you've convinced people to vote third party or stay home, what's next?
What are you hoping you will accomplish if Romney manages to win and the Republicans take over congress?
MannyGoldstein
(34,589 posts)back from the Third-Wayers that have ruled for 20+ years
The US can only slide further into ruin unless we elect leaders who fight like mad dogs for traditional Democratic principles. More Liz Warren, less Robert Rubin. More FDR, less Hoover.
If Obama loses, it's his fault for not delivering for the American people. We are still in a depression, and he's fighting for more "free" trade and austerity. I didn't suggest that he do that.
Let me ask: do you think things have gone well over the last 20 years?
COLGATE4
(14,732 posts)Douglas Carpenter
(20,226 posts)INdemo
(6,994 posts)Congress has an over all approval rating of about 11%..(depending which survey you read) but I think the TeaParty candidates has
shown us just how radical they are..This election may wake up a lot of Democratic voters that previously vowed to stay home
..As for the Senate I think McConnell is the best politcal ad we could ever have..Every time this guy opens his mouth he contradicts himself.....
Minority Leader: Odds Long to Undo Health Care Law
ProudToBeBlueInRhody
(16,399 posts)Unlike how Harry Reid has been vilified by the GOP, we refuse to make our enemies household words.
Bake
(21,977 posts)From his "number one priority is to make sure Obama is a one-term President" to more recent support of undisclosed money to super PACs, he's shown himself to be an extremist of the first order. He'll never lose his seat in KY (sadly) until he retires or dies (oh happy thought), but he's one of the "faces" of the modern GOP.
Bake
demwing
(16,916 posts)to the Republican's safe 45
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/2012_elections_senate_map.html
In the tossup sates Nelson (FL), and Kaine (VA) have leads, and Warren (MA) is in a deadlock - but does anyone expect Scott Brown to win? With HCR in the bag, I'm betting MA Dems will turn out to take Kennedy's seat back. Intrade also gives Warren an edge over Brown, if only slightly.
That gives us 50. With Biden, 51.
Wisconsin is interesting. Obama is very popular there, but Thompson (R) is the favored Senate candidate. The big question is what affect will we see if Scott Walker gets indicted? The Dem in WI - Baldwin - does well against all other Republican primary candidates. If Walker goes down, Wisconsin could feel some buyers remorse over their recall vote, and toss out the Republicans.
The "also rans" are Heitkamp in ND (which is an open seat and a tossup), and then Berkeley in NV, Tester in MT and McCaskill in MO who are all trailing in their races. Of those last three, Berkeley is gaining on the Repub, and might have a shot if Nevada turnout favors Dems.
A real wild card race is over the open seat in Indiana. Indiana was Dick Lugar's old seat, but he was beaten in the (R) primary by a Tea Party clown named Mourdock. Polls show Lugar would have won the GE easily, but Mourdock can't get an edge against Donnelly (D), and may not be able to pull enough Independent voters to seal the deal. Rasmussen has the race tied at 42%, and an earlier Honey/DePauw poll in March showed the race tied at 35%.
I'd say that despite the odds given at Intrade, Dems have a better than 50% chance of holding the Senate. I predict we lose three existing seats and flip two red seats (three, if you count MA), walking away with a narrow majority, (52/48).
permatex
(1,299 posts)and I hope that slim is leaving the train station as we speak.
cojoel
(958 posts)All of this assumes reasonably fair elections (which is a pretty rash assumption in this day and age). The Democrats need to win 20 seats to stay at 50. More is better.
Very Likely Stay Dem (13): CA DE HI MD MI MN NJ NY OH PA RI WA WV
Very Likely to Stay Ind (1): VT (Bernie causes with Dems)
Very Likely to Flip Dem (0):
Very Likely to Flip Rep to Ind (1): ME (I am assuming Angus King will caucus with Democratic members if he is elected)
Very Likely to Flip Ind to Dem (1): CT (Lieberman caucused with Dems)
Very Likely Stay Rep (6): AZ MS TN TX UT WY
Very Likely to Flip Rep (1): NE
Probably Stay Dem (2): NM WI* (much to worry about here)
Possible to Flip Dem (3): IN MA NV
Probably Stay Rep (0):
Possible to Flip Rep (5): MO ND MT VA FL
This leads to Probably or higher: Dems 18 - Reps 7 - Contested 8
Of the contested, I think we have a reasonable chance at MA, NV, and FL (FL is at 19% undecided which is large). We have a modest chance at NV and VA. I think IN, MO, ND, and MT are long-shots but not out of the question as polling is close. We also need to work very hard in the other elections anyway, and especially in NM and WI.
cthulu2016
(10,960 posts)Woody Woodpecker
(562 posts)While the voters depart the Republicans en-masse to the Democratic side, and boosts the majority from 52 to 70, with 30 deciding to retire in '14 and '16 respectively, shifting to the leftward.
Progressives will take over the US House and remove every single Teapublicans out of the House, and then truly fix what ails America and remove unnecessary and wasteful spending FROM the right. All pork will cease, in replacement will be a federally funded mandate to create jobs for every single American, and easily earn a living wage.
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)MineralMan
(146,336 posts)efforts. Or, we can just bail and let the country go to Hell. I'm not really willing to do that.
If we work our butts off and get defeated, that's one thing. If we let it happen, then it's on us, really.
yellowcanine
(35,701 posts)This makes a difference because incumbents usually win. So what we need to know is actual open seats, where they are (Red or Blue State) and which incumbents are vulnerable.