She didn't even get the largest vote share in the first round, and all the other parties hate her. She'll pull some votes from Fillon's conservatives, but the only way she's winning this is if there was a huge attack of some kind, or if Macron was suddenly found to have been doing something terrible.

I was really worried before the first round, but her vote total (despite being much higher than it should be) just isn't enough to make her a serious threat.

He's a former minister and generally seen as the safe middle ground guy. He's not going to atttack France's workers rights, and he's not going to attack French business, he'll just kind of drift along in the middle not really liked that much but also not hated. Bear in mind that France has just watched Britain turn into a xenophobic comic sketch, and France is much more closely attached to the EU project than Britain was, despite how much they moan about it.

I have seen American leftists talk about him with disdain , I have no idea how the french left will behave. It will be interesting.

I had a self proclaimed leftist say we need to keep immigrants out so we can have nice things. He said social democracy is incompatible with liberal immigration because they consume the social benefits that belong to natives. That sounds Trumpian or LePenian.

very sad because i consider myself a leftist though I always vote for the Democrat even if he or she is too centrist for my taste. It's the smartest thing to do based on how our system works. I could get away with voting for third party because i live in a very blue state but i stilll don't. If I were a French native I would not hesitate to vote for this Macron guy, probably bitching about him the whole time.lol

Here were the numbers for the first round:

Macron 24.01%
Le Pen 21.3%
Fillon 20.01%
Mélenchon 19.58%
Hamon 6.36%

Now she might pull some of Fillon's most right wing support, but she's not going to get crap out of Mélenchon supporters. The only route to victory for her is if everyone who didn't vote for Macron in the first round either switches to her or doesn't vote. Given how much of France loathes and despises the National Front (despite her little game of pretending to give up the party after round one) a huge number of people will come out against her because they've seen with Trump what can happen otherwise.

Oh and its worth remembering that her father and predecessor as leader was a vicious anti-semite and holocaust denier. Although she's worked hard to try and clean up the party image, she'll never wash away what a bunch of seriously vile bastards they are at their core.

Were in November.

And you are assuming we have the same value system as the French and render identical value judgments. When former President Mitterand died his wife and mistress attended his funeral.

If Macron was in the U.S. there would be posts about how his life was emotionally destroyed at age 15 by a woman 25 years older than him. So you are saying the French don't care about those things? How are the French different than people in the U.S.? They don't get emotionally screwed up by sex with older people? And we do?

I don't care about his relationships but it is interesting how people who make these posts when these incidents come up in the U.S. are ignoring the French connection....

Donald Trump fantasized about fucking a twelve year old Paris Hilton:


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-paris-hilton_us_57ee9373e4b024a52d2ea629



Maybe the French aren't all that different.

The only people I've seen really making a thing out of his personal relationship is the English speaking media.

The French have less hangups than Americans do about a lot of things. Sex being Exhibit A. How people can't see that is beyond me.

So yeah, by that standard, the French may have a different view on said relationship.

Media accounts of their once-illicit relationship have offered it as evidence of Macron’s daring personality and willingness to break with tradition, qualities that helped make him a presidential frontrunner without a political party or any experience in elected office. “Their love affair was the kind of audacious undertaking that has defined Mr. Macron’s life and career,” the New York Times reports. “His sheer drive, his focus and his willingness to leapfrog in a country where most success is built step by step make him more like the entrepreneurs he admires than a typical politician.” The Associated Press writes that, “from his teenage romance with a teacher to his recent ambition to become president, Emmanuel Macron often is described as unconventional and tenacious.”

http://www.slate.com/blogs/xx_factor/2017/04/24/french_presidential_candidate_macron_s_teacher_student_romance_is_supporting.html

We in the US are Puritanical and out of touch with human sexuality, that is a given.

I am sure I will not see any more posts complaining about the lifelong emotional trauma suffered when a teenager is involved with an older adult. And when those posts occur I am sure I will see posters telling us that type of sexual expression is ok. I won't hold my breath.

Genital mutilation should be an interesting topic should be ever get into Ivory Coast elections.

I love that he is not a politician. And I am really, really curious about how the wife thing is going to play out in the runoff. She already has said that she is going to play a role in the government.

... for these types of elections are something like 6-7 percent.

So La Pen goes 7 up, Macron goes 7 down, there's still a gap.

As of a few days ago 538 had it in the single digits for probability.

They get to see nationalism in action here.

Le Pen got right out there after it and he took a day off from the campaign on Monday and played President on the phone, calling Merkel.

Everyone from Hollande on down has told him nothing is won and he has heard the message; too bad it even had to be sent. Played right into the stereotype of elites.

position, I'd be calling in more than the FBI ! To the barricades Mes Amis !!!

Complacency; I remember that, too.

Anyway, one thing the polls show is she's having a better week than he is:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-election-poll-idUSKBN17T093

It won't be close.

Marcon vs Le Pen is like Kasich vs Trump. One would clearly be better than the other but there still isn't a good choice available.

Who would have been preferable to Marcon?

I know Obama backed him for what that is worth.

And France is different for millions of reasons...

will win, and hopefully she won't, but her strategy is to appeal to blue collar workers, the economy, and terrorism

After the Brexit vote in the UK, nothing can be taken for granted

Until then, as long as these criminals are running free, expect nothing but chaos and destruction. After Brexit and Trump, I'm scared this is going to keep happening again and again.

like so many Americans who should know better but never learned a damn thing in their lives.

Learn from other people's mistakes, you don't have time to make them all yourself.