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MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
Sat May 6, 2017, 11:36 AM May 2017

TrumpCare May Lead to Massive Internal Migrations.

Like the Dust Bowl days of the Great Depression, the institution of the Republican healthcare plan could force millions of Americans to make the decision to leave their red states and migrate to states that create their own, more equitable healthcare systems. As the red states follow the spirit of the new healthcare law and cut off support for their own citizens, other states, mainly blue states, may institute their own measures to protect the health of the people who live in them.

If such a thing occurs, it is going to create huge stresses in those states that insist that their residents have rights to not die from treatable health issues. But, it may also have huge economic impacts on states that embrace the libertarian and fascist view that only those who can afford healthcare on their own can have it.

Trump and the regressive Republicans in Congress may get more than they bargained for with this experiment in antisocial engineering.

47 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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TrumpCare May Lead to Massive Internal Migrations. (Original Post) MineralMan May 2017 OP
Walls for every state? IADEMO2004 May 2017 #1
2 prong strategy NewRedDawn May 2017 #4
Probably not. But, it could definitely create problems. MineralMan May 2017 #7
To some extent that is already happening greymattermom May 2017 #2
Yes, but people who need healthcare and can't get it MineralMan May 2017 #8
In your scenario the migration would have tremendous adverse economic impacts rzemanfl May 2017 #15
It certainly could, and you're correct. MineralMan May 2017 #18
You assume that migration would only be from red to blue FBaggins May 2017 #13
I doubt that very much. There are already attractive advantages MineralMan May 2017 #19
You may be protecting there FBaggins May 2017 #22
Some of that movement is coming from retirees, who MineralMan May 2017 #23
Other people, like me, enjoy swimming outdoors in January. rzemanfl May 2017 #24
Quite a few retirees are becoming expatriates, as well. MineralMan May 2017 #34
A huge drawback is the penalty should one come back and want Medicare. rzemanfl May 2017 #35
Just leave it in force. Pay the Part B premium as usual. MineralMan May 2017 #36
I don't plan on going anywhere. $1,308 a year more for that cheaper cost of living rzemanfl May 2017 #37
The differences in cost of living are far larger MineralMan May 2017 #39
Too adventurous for my blood, but more power to the folks who take the chance. n/t rzemanfl May 2017 #46
Four of the top 5 states for in migration for 2015-16 were red states mnhtnbb May 2017 #44
I'm flashing on a redux Do Re Mi Brother Buzz May 2017 #3
Yup. MineralMan May 2017 #9
yup CountAllVotes May 2017 #17
Thus assuring a bright future for the medieval serfdoms aka red states dalton99a May 2017 #5
Could be. I sure hope not. MineralMan May 2017 #12
The systems already exist in some states, and they already impact migrations and economies. L. Coyote May 2017 #6
Yes. The differences will be even more tangible as MineralMan May 2017 #10
If anyone doubts that this could happen, MineralMan May 2017 #11
this is also what Mexican immigrants do. n/t Horse with no Name May 2017 #26
Long term, it could tilt the Electoral College... Wounded Bear May 2017 #14
Long term, it could change many, many things. MineralMan May 2017 #21
Look at what California is considering. Would there be a "Health Rush" to the Golden State? PearliePoo2 May 2017 #16
An excellent example, I think. If that occurs, combine that with a great climate MineralMan May 2017 #20
Now THESE are my kind of Democrats! - nt KingCharlemagne May 2017 #33
I work at a major medical center in a red state Horse with no Name May 2017 #25
Oddly enough, here in the Twin Cities of MN, MineralMan May 2017 #32
Tremendous economic dislocation. Turbineguy May 2017 #27
That may be the plan. moondust May 2017 #28
This is what I did janterry May 2017 #29
In 20th century, southern states used to buy bus ticket for delisen May 2017 #30
In this century this is happening in Colorado. OldHippieChick May 2017 #41
Wyoming,pop.580,000 could use some liberal settlements delisen May 2017 #47
That' interesting. I had not stopped to consider the possibility before now. I hope KingCharlemagne May 2017 #31
I'm sorry, but eff the red states. They voted for him and they can suffer the consequences. smirkymonkey May 2017 #38
Oh, dear. You can't keep them from moving, you know. MineralMan May 2017 #40
They won't like it here much. smirkymonkey May 2017 #42
The big problem with that as I see it Egnever May 2017 #43
State residency will become nearly impossible to establish... roamer65 May 2017 #45
 

NewRedDawn

(790 posts)
4. 2 prong strategy
Sat May 6, 2017, 11:43 AM
May 2017

Break the blue states & the red states cull blue voters who go to blue states & maintain electoral college advantage.

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
7. Probably not. But, it could definitely create problems.
Sat May 6, 2017, 11:47 AM
May 2017

Such a thing may not happen quickly or soon, but it did happen during the depression. People migrated, and in quite large numbers. I'm from California, and that migration affected that state dramatically. Desperate families did whatever was required to get there. For several years following, that migration created a new underclass in California, which really didn't go away until after WWII, when other reasons for resettlement came into play.

The small agricultural community I grew up in in the 50s still had remnants of that migration that persisted. The "Okies," for example, lived primarily in one section of town and were easily recognized by their distinctive accents. The competition between the migrants from the midwest and the migrants from Mexico was harsh, since both competed for the same type of jobs.

I remember the tensions. They're pretty much gone now, some sixty years later, but they were real, and extended into the school system while I was attending primary and secondary school there.

Economics drove that migration. Healthcare issues may drive the next one, particularly if we go through another economic slump. It's a real concern.

greymattermom

(5,754 posts)
2. To some extent that is already happening
Sat May 6, 2017, 11:42 AM
May 2017

and the 2020 census will show it. A lot of red states will lose representation.

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
8. Yes, but people who need healthcare and can't get it
Sat May 6, 2017, 11:48 AM
May 2017

where they are are likely to go where they can. It's a different driver of migration, but will become more important, I think.

rzemanfl

(29,565 posts)
15. In your scenario the migration would have tremendous adverse economic impacts
Sat May 6, 2017, 12:04 PM
May 2017

on red states as they lost their tax base. I can imagine them trying to close their borders. Blue states might attempt to close theirs too to keep from being overwhelmed by immigrants.

It would be best to nip this in the bud by dealing with the Russia thing and halting the Republican agenda.

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
18. It certainly could, and you're correct.
Sat May 6, 2017, 12:18 PM
May 2017

The answer is to fix the problem and prevent such a thing from happening.

FBaggins

(26,748 posts)
13. You assume that migration would only be from red to blue
Sat May 6, 2017, 12:01 PM
May 2017

Young/healthy people would might in the other direction and would move back if they developed a serious condition.

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
19. I doubt that very much. There are already attractive advantages
Sat May 6, 2017, 12:22 PM
May 2017

to moving to red states, including low housing costs and other things. And yet, there is no real strong migration to them. Anyone can search to compare housing costs, for example, but such a search would also include a job search and other searches. The story is discovered during that process, and so people aren't moving to such places in droves.

FBaggins

(26,748 posts)
22. You may be protecting there
Sat May 6, 2017, 12:33 PM
May 2017

The last couple censuses have down just the opposite (a net out-migration from blue states). The good news has been that some are thus marginally bluer... Not that people aren't leaving the reliably blue states.

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
23. Some of that movement is coming from retirees, who
Sat May 6, 2017, 12:42 PM
May 2017

are cashing in on home equities in high-value areas and moving to places where home values are lower. Many boomers have built substantial equities in homes over the years, but are cash poor. My wife and I did something like that, although not for that reason. We sold the home I had owned for over 30 years in the Central Coast of California back in 2004 for a shockingly high price when we move to Minnesota, and paid less than half that for a larger home in St. Paul, MN. The remainder became part of our retirement investment.

Plenty of people are doing that as an economic strategy who live in some blue states where housing prices are far higher than elsewhere in the country. That's at least a partial explanation for that movement out of some blue states. However, it's a different sort of migration than I'm talking about.

rzemanfl

(29,565 posts)
24. Other people, like me, enjoy swimming outdoors in January.
Sat May 6, 2017, 01:04 PM
May 2017

Home equities are no longer certain, as the middle to latter part of the last decade demonstrated. God knows what the current clown show will do to them.

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
34. Quite a few retirees are becoming expatriates, as well.
Sat May 6, 2017, 02:20 PM
May 2017

Several European, Central American and South American nations cater to such emigrees. Personally, I consider that to be a last-ditch alternative, but I'd consider it, all the same. The attraction, of course, is a low cost of living. The drawbacks, though, can be significant, including healthcare availability and quality.

rzemanfl

(29,565 posts)
35. A huge drawback is the penalty should one come back and want Medicare.
Sat May 6, 2017, 03:36 PM
May 2017

Of course there is no guarantee that won't be replaced with coupons.

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
36. Just leave it in force. Pay the Part B premium as usual.
Sat May 6, 2017, 03:41 PM
May 2017

You couldn't use it where you are, but you're still paying for it, so there wouldn't be any penalty if you come back. Mine is $109/month. You could drop the supplemental insurance, though, and re-enroll in that at any open enrollment period.

There's always an answer.

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
39. The differences in cost of living are far larger
Sat May 6, 2017, 03:58 PM
May 2017

than that. Looking at cost of living on a monthly basis, given the concept of renting an apartment, that monthly cost in the top 10 most popular countries with retirees ranges between about $1500-$2500 per month, and that's the total cost of living, including rent, food and other normal expenses. Compare that with the cost of living almost anywhere in the US, and you can see that $109 per month is insignificant, really.

Of course, this is for healthy retirees. Medical care is another matter, although it is generally much less expensive in those countries than in the United States. In some cases, if you acquire permanent residence status, you are covered by that nation's health care system, but that varies.

There's a lot of information about this on the web. It has become an alternative choice for some retirees without large retirement savings, since it is actually possible to live on a couple's Social Security benefits alone in some of those countries. For those who own property outright in the US, the proceeds from the sale of that property makes an excellent buffer.

Typically such retirees have their SS benefits automatically deposited in a US bank account and transfer funds to the local banking system. It's easy to do nowadays.

mnhtnbb

(31,395 posts)
44. Four of the top 5 states for in migration for 2015-16 were red states
Sat May 6, 2017, 04:15 PM
May 2017

although in the past both Florida and North Carolina have been purple/blue.


The uptick in population growth was fueled by an increase in net migration: North Carolina received 81,000 net migrants between 2015 and 2016. This was the fifth largest inflow of any state after Florida (346K), Texas (221K), Washington (94K), and Arizona (83K). Net migration accounted for nearly three of every four new residents to the state.


http://demography.cpc.unc.edu/2017/02/10/north-carolina-population-growth-at-highest-levels-since-2010/


Like you, we left California (although many years earlier in 1988) and moved several times before ending up in NC. At the time we moved here, in 2000, it was a purple/blue state. We've been very distressed since Republicans took over the state government after Dems didn't turn out in 2010 and the Repubs gerrymandered state districts. It's only with the help of court decisions that districts are finally being redrawn and we managed to kick the Republican governor out in 2016 but the Republican Legislature has been passing laws attempting to limit the now Dem Governor's role. It's a really nasty fight.

My point, though, is that people can move and governments can change from red to blue and back again. Look how many years Reagan and Republicans were in control in California--before he was exported to damage the entire country. Now California is blue once again. You can move--and be screwed--as we have been several times as state governments change.

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
11. If anyone doubts that this could happen,
Sat May 6, 2017, 11:56 AM
May 2017

consider a working class family in, say Alabama, with a child who has serious health issues that cannot be accommodated there. Meanwhile, another state, say Minnesota, has set up their own healthcare system that ensures that poor people receive healthcare, even if they cannot afford to pay for it, particularly for children.

If that family has a car and enough gas money to get to Minnesota, the parents may just decide one day that it's time to move on. That's what happened in the Dust Bowl days. People piled what they could in and on the family's creaky automobile and headed West. They really had no alternative, except to starve.

Much of the internal migratory behavior in the United States has been economic in nature. Healthcare is economic in nature, and life-threatening, much as the Dust Bowl was. People will move, if they must, to survive or to give their children a chance to survive.

Wounded Bear

(58,670 posts)
14. Long term, it could tilt the Electoral College...
Sat May 6, 2017, 12:02 PM
May 2017

in that scenario, all of the red states will eventually have only 3 EC votes each.

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
21. Long term, it could change many, many things.
Sat May 6, 2017, 12:26 PM
May 2017

Those changes could be very hard to predict, though.

Anyone who has driven to California has encountered the "Agricultural Inspection Stations" located near the border on every major road into the state from all directions. What most people don't know is that those were set up during the Dust Bowl migrations and were really designed to discourage migrants from entering California. They didn't work for that purpose, but are still there and still operating. They could easily be converted into "Migrant Discouragement Stations" again, if needed. In fact, some of them serve that purpose today, and are also used by ICE to stop undocumented immigrants.

PearliePoo2

(7,768 posts)
16. Look at what California is considering. Would there be a "Health Rush" to the Golden State?
Sat May 6, 2017, 12:13 PM
May 2017
California Lawmakers Advance Single-Payer Health Bill

snip:
A proposal to substantially remake California’s health care system by eliminating insurance companies and guaranteeing coverage for everyone has cleared the first legislative hurdle.

The state Senate Health Committee voted to advance the measure on Wednesday as hundreds of nurses and advocates converged on the state Capitol to show their support.

We have the chance to make universal health care a reality now,” Democratic state Sen. Ricardo Lara of the Los Angeles-area city of Bell Gardens said last month. “It’s time to talk about how we get to health care for all that covers more and costs less.”

The measure would guarantee health coverage with no out-of-pocket costs for all California residents, including people living in the country illegally.

https://ww2.kqed.org/stateofhealth/2017/04/26/california-lawmakers-consider-plan-to-create-single-payer-health-system/





MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
20. An excellent example, I think. If that occurs, combine that with a great climate
Sat May 6, 2017, 12:25 PM
May 2017

economic opportunities, and California, as it was during the Dust Bowl, becomes an attractive option for people looking to get out of their current situation. However, housing costs and other factors will be quite a surprise to migrants. Still, that has not stopped migrants from Mexico and other places from going there. There are solutions, even for California's high cost of living.

Horse with no Name

(33,956 posts)
25. I work at a major medical center in a red state
Sat May 6, 2017, 01:09 PM
May 2017

The specific patient population that I am entrusted with....ALL of them have many preexisting conditions.
I wonder how our practice will fare under trumpcare.
With that being said....I wonder if this will cause the major healthcare centers to close down and relocate to patient-friendly states?

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
32. Oddly enough, here in the Twin Cities of MN,
Sat May 6, 2017, 02:16 PM
May 2017

we have a glut of healthcare facilities. Of major health systems, too. Same day appointments, even with specialists are not uncommon, and are standard at the multi-specialty Allina healthcare clinic I use. It wouldn't be prudent for a new healthcare company to move here. The competition is too tough. Right now, there's a lot of surplus capacity in the total system.

Turbineguy

(37,346 posts)
27. Tremendous economic dislocation.
Sat May 6, 2017, 01:30 PM
May 2017

In the Great Depression the movement of people was caused by the economic collapse. Here it would be the other way around.

moondust

(19,993 posts)
28. That may be the plan.
Sat May 6, 2017, 01:32 PM
May 2017

I've suspected for a few years that some Republican state governments have been doing as much as they can to encourage their poorer residents to pack up and move to a more hospitable state. They refuse to expand Medicaid, harass them with drug testing, shut down abortion providers (wealthy women can still get on an airplane and fly somewhere else to have an abortion), etc. If the poor move elsewhere that will enable more tax cuts and presumably attract more wealthy sociopaths like themselves who don't want to pay taxes.



Plus I think the GOP Deathcare gives the states more control over health insurance so that would be another tool they can use to make life miserable for the less-than-wealthy in their emigration campaign.

 

janterry

(4,429 posts)
29. This is what I did
Sat May 6, 2017, 01:55 PM
May 2017

I moved from FL to VT (just bought a house a few weeks ago).

I did it to ensure that I'd have adequate healthcare. If VT proves unable to do this, I'll cross the border to Massachusetts and buy a home there.

But keep in mind - I'm able to do this because I have some money at my disposal. When we were poor, which was just a short time ago (I mean really poor - food insecure poor) - we couldn't have moved. It was too hard.

Most of the poor in FL (in those small towns that no one ever visits) will stay right where they are because that is where they are from. Their parents, grandparents and children are from there and 'stay' there. The really, really poor of this county will stay in their red states and do what Faulkner would have called 'endure.' They will accept this as another kick in the teeth from a power that they can neither control nor influence.

delisen

(6,044 posts)
30. In 20th century, southern states used to buy bus ticket for
Sat May 6, 2017, 02:03 PM
May 2017

homeless and poor people to NY and Chicago.

OldHippieChick

(2,434 posts)
41. In this century this is happening in Colorado.
Sat May 6, 2017, 04:01 PM
May 2017

Housing prices are thru the roof and non-profit organizations are helping the homeless and underemployed move to less expensive states (Wyo, Neb) so they can afford to live.

delisen

(6,044 posts)
47. Wyoming,pop.580,000 could use some liberal settlements
Sat May 6, 2017, 07:34 PM
May 2017

Great place for those who love the outdoors and have a means of support. It would be so nice to have two democratic senators and a representative from Wyoming.

The Libertarian Party are already trying to convince libertarians to move in to small population states and turn them Libertarian.

I am glad it is the non-profits that are helping homeless in Colorado move to where they can afford to live.

In the old days in the south it was done by the power structure to avoid paying welfare.




 

KingCharlemagne

(7,908 posts)
31. That' interesting. I had not stopped to consider the possibility before now. I hope
Sat May 6, 2017, 02:15 PM
May 2017

all Trump supporters remain behind to wallow in their own self-inflicted misery.

 

smirkymonkey

(63,221 posts)
38. I'm sorry, but eff the red states. They voted for him and they can suffer the consequences.
Sat May 6, 2017, 03:55 PM
May 2017

We don't want them flooding our blue states. They are not welcome.

 

smirkymonkey

(63,221 posts)
42. They won't like it here much.
Sat May 6, 2017, 04:07 PM
May 2017

We can't keep them from moving, but I doubt most of them can afford it. Sounds elitist, yes, but it's the truth.

Besides, what would they do to make a living? How would they afford housing?

roamer65

(36,745 posts)
45. State residency will become nearly impossible to establish...
Sat May 6, 2017, 04:18 PM
May 2017

in the states with more generous healthcare programs and it will become a requirement to get coverage. There will be State ID cards that come about. If they can code a US passport card into a driver's license, they can code an elaborate State ID system into them. You then will get nada if you don't have one.

Residency in one of these states will become more prized than American citizenship itself.

...and stop turning this into a red-blue thing, folks. It is more of a Medicaid expansion versus non-expansion issue. Michigan and Ohio, for example, want to keep the ACA. They went "red" but are more common sense when it comes to health care.

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