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Marzupialis

(398 posts)
Fri Jul 6, 2012, 01:09 PM Jul 2012

The impact of the jobs reports on the election is overrated

I feel that every time there's a bad report (which has been happening in the last months) pundits say Obama is in deep trouble, yet polls stay relatively unchanged, and we can say that Obama has gained a bit of ground since the June report.

The media loves drama.

11 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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freshwest

(53,661 posts)
1. Agreed. Has anyone who follows MSM seen any positve report on Obama, except for poll numbers? And..
Fri Jul 6, 2012, 01:19 PM
Jul 2012

This is the same media that acted as if Obama was from outer space when he won nomination and gave tag team Palin maximum exposure since 2008.

Without any criticism of her race baiting rallies, so that the only person who tried to keep the mobs in control was McCain. And can we ignore their fawning over the Tea Party troglodytes?

It would be more generous to say MSM have SFB, but the ownership picture and their total inane package shows them to be worse than snake oil salesmen, actively hostile to the needs of Americans.

Blanks

(4,835 posts)
2. I can't help but wonder if the....
Fri Jul 6, 2012, 01:20 PM
Jul 2012

Message about the republican obstruction of the construction bill has begun to sink in.

I think it's pretty obvious at this point that the 'Romney plan' is to sign the construction bill; that the republican controlled house is holding until after the election.

It's hard to believe the republican controlled house is preventing necessary projects from going forward just as a gamble that it will pay off politically.

I hope it bites them in the ass; politically.

progressivebydesign

(19,458 posts)
3. Maybe I'm clueless.. but adding 80,000K in a month is BAD?
Fri Jul 6, 2012, 01:22 PM
Jul 2012

... seems okay. At what point did the media EVER EVER report when we lost millions of jobs every month under Bush??? That's the thing, they are so screwed up. They NEVER reported the reality of Bush and the GOP's handiwork on our workers, but now adding jobs isn't good enough?? Shit.. we would have happily settled for ANY net gain of jobs in a month under Bush's rule.

 

1StrongBlackMan

(31,849 posts)
6. Don't worry ...
Fri Jul 6, 2012, 01:31 PM
Jul 2012

the "DU FACT CREW" will be along shortly to let you know that President Obama has failed, failed I tell you, because the economy requires 200K plus in new jobs to get us back to where we were before the Bush years.

 

1StrongBlackMan

(31,849 posts)
5. While the media can't ...
Fri Jul 6, 2012, 01:28 PM
Jul 2012

place enough emphasis on the word "anemic" in all of its reporting on the jobs numbers, it seems that the public: 1) recognizes the difference between jobs GAINS and jobs SHED, i.e., progress; and 2) recognizes that the gop has done nothing to positively affect jobs.

 

Life Long Dem

(8,582 posts)
8. Jobs is all I hear on the cable news stations today
Fri Jul 6, 2012, 01:38 PM
Jul 2012

I believe it takes more than this to sway the undecided voters. I'm not too concerned over the dismal jobs report.

unblock

(52,286 posts)
10. jobs, and unemployment in general, is, in and of itself, a notoriously WEAK presidential determinant
Fri Jul 6, 2012, 02:11 PM
Jul 2012

for the simple reason that even when unemployment is 12%, that means 88% have jobs, and the unemployment rate is of only mild concern. yes, it affects raises and job security and freedom to switch jobs, etc., but at least as presidential voting is concerned, people who have jobs don't tend to hold high unemployment against the party of the sitting president.

however, unemployment often is correlated with other economic factors that do have an impact on presidential voting, most notably gdp, which tends to have an impact on quite a lot of people. in this case, gdp is a bit of a split decision -- good enough short term to not be in recession, but not good enough long term to make people feel like we're actually making progress.

unblock

(52,286 posts)
9. no single jobs report matters, but the economy as a whole certainly does, and each report...
Fri Jul 6, 2012, 01:55 PM
Jul 2012

... helps paint the picture, good or bad.

though it's also true, of course, that the media has to sell papers, or attract eyeballs, or whatever.
so they hire political analysts who analyze the limited bits of data they get each day and pretend it's of vast significance.

ONE of lichtman's 13 "keys to the presidency" is whether or not the economy is in a recession (taken simply as two consecutive quarters of declining gdp) in the lead-up to the election. sucky as the economy may be, a painfully anemic recovery is not technically a recession, so obama looks to win this key. the other 12 keys really have nothing to do with any single jobs report (there is also a long-term economic key, comparing gdp over the last 4 years to gdp over the previous 8 years, but a few jobs reports have virtually no impact on this one -- obama's losing this key regardless).

the bigger impact on the presidential race, from a "keys" point of view, is that the supreme court's upholding aca locks up the significant legislation key. had they knocked it down entirely, it would have been less clear (would the credit card act, etc., be enough?) but arguably obama would have lost this key. in a sense, republicans shot themselves in the foot on this one because their challenge has simply served to increase its significance. perhaps their better play would have been to dismiss it as small potatoes.



Blanks

(4,835 posts)
11. That's a really good point.
Fri Jul 6, 2012, 04:08 PM
Jul 2012

The republicans were so sure that ACA was going to be struck down (even though it originated from a conservative think tank); that they bet a lot of political capital on it.

Obviously since it was upheld; all of their claims that it was unconstitutional is just proof of how stupid they are about the concept of constitutionality.

Had they left it alone (until it was over-turned) they would have a lot less egg on their face. They played that poorly, and the president is benefitting from it.

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