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Tom Rinaldo

(22,913 posts)
Fri Jun 9, 2017, 12:30 PM Jun 2017

The National Republicans virtually have no Party left without Trump's hardcore base

Last edited Fri Jun 9, 2017, 01:53 PM - Edit history (1)

They've spent two decades purging moderates from their ranks by marching relentlessly to the right, courting social conservatives. With U.S. changing demographics they realized that, outside of the South, they could not remain competitive nationally with a coalition hobbled together from gun nuts, the Christian Right, and Establishment Wall Street corporate Republicans. Hispanics were not breaking toward them in the numbers they were hoping for after George W. Bush left office. Gay baiting was breaking against them. And they were falling further behind with younger voters. Increasingly the Republican path to power relied on consolidating their Southern stronghold, ever increased voter suppression, and gerrymandering, Future prospects looked grim, and so they rolled the dice.

After eight years of a Democratic presidency the American political pendulum has a natural tendency to swing back somewhat toward the Right, but the Republicans doubled down on extremism and way overshot the centrist mark.They boxed themselves in. The right wing media empire that propelled Republicans for 20 years depends on conspiracy, sensationalism and division for high ratings and book sales. The Drudge Report has a least ten times the overall influence of the National Review among the voters that matter most to Republicans now. Establishment Republicans thought they could tame the crazed beast that they fed fresh red meat to, but it has hunted them toward extinction instead. They've created a constituency of the unhinged; weaned from facts and fed on feral fables.

I used to think that the Paul Ryan/ Mike Pence types in Washington were just using Trump to get their agenda through Congress and into law - and that they would gladly cut Trump loose once his overall approval numbers sank low enough. Now I realize that they are literally nowhere without him. Their type would sink faster without Trump than with him, no matter how distasteful Trump becomes to most Americans. They are joined at the hip. However incongruent a team they may make it is way too late for a divorce.

Responsible Republicans now must choose between Country or their personal careers. With just a small handful of exceptions (Republicans like John Kasich who refused to attend the Republican Convention that nominated Trump even though it was held in the State that he was Governor of) they are all too thoroughly soiled by Trump to come clean of him now. They can either cling to the rapidly shrinking chance that Trump's core base can provide them with the votes they will need to win reelection if they remain loyal to Trump now, or they can toss in the towel and do what is right for their nation. In the current political climate they are politically damned if they do or don't support Trump, but damned more deeply if they don't. We will soon know whether there are any profiles in courage left among them. I'm not counting on there being many.

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Wellstone ruled

(34,661 posts)
3. This is the
Fri Jun 9, 2017, 12:42 PM
Jun 2017

Canary in the Coal Mine.

What we have to watch for is this,Voting Machine issues and the handling of the Voting results.

Tom Rinaldo

(22,913 posts)
4. Then they won't between a rock and a hard place, they'll be in a vice
Fri Jun 9, 2017, 12:45 PM
Jun 2017

I expect you are right that some will make that calculation then - and a few of the quickest slickest and most nimble among them may get away with it - but most will not unless the Republican partisan advantage in their districts is extremely lopsided.

A fourth of the voters they count on will punish them if they turn against Trump at any point, by staying home on election day if nothing else. And a fifth of the voters who they need will punish Republicans who remain loyal to Trump. Either scenario most likely spells defeat for them.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
6. Their big fear is that they'll permanently lose the Romney--Clinton voters
Fri Jun 9, 2017, 12:51 PM
Jun 2017

The Obama-->Trump voters are not likely to be as reliable, to either vote GOP or vote at all.

Tom Rinaldo

(22,913 posts)
9. My hunch is that they've already lost the Romney-Clinton voters in 2018
Fri Jun 9, 2017, 01:14 PM
Jun 2017

by remaining complicit to Trump this long. I think any move they make to win them back runs against a rising tide of resentment at the Republican Party for installing and defending Trump. Any convincing attempt by most Republicans to woo those voters now will cost them more votes from Trumps core base than I think they can win back from centrists in the face of what Trump has put our nation through. It's a classic no win scenario.

janx

(24,128 posts)
5. I think they are damned more deeply if they *do* continue to support Trump.
Fri Jun 9, 2017, 12:48 PM
Jun 2017

They should care more about their country, obviously, but even for purely political reasons, it would make much more sense for them to get out of their denial and look at the long haul, no?

Tom Rinaldo

(22,913 posts)
8. They threw in with the zealots and they are tarred by that assocoation now
Fri Jun 9, 2017, 01:06 PM
Jun 2017

I agree that the long term prospects for the Republican Party will be brighter sooner if the Republican Party repudiates Trump now. But current Republican office holders who have been compliant/complicit with Trump this far into his Administration will not stack up well against Democrats in general come 2018 other than with the remaining loyalist Trump voters (if they stayed loyal to Trump). When voters want to wipe a stain away they do so thoroughly. Gerald Ford lost to "a little known peanut farmer" in 1976.

Tom Rinaldo

(22,913 posts)
14. Yes. And Republicans, with very few exceptions, will not be - because they stood by Trump
Sat Jun 10, 2017, 11:35 AM
Jun 2017

Unless they openly opposed Trump when it really counted (and time is running out for that) Republican incumbents will be tied to him and his dishonesty.

Achilleaze

(15,543 posts)
7. My country or my career as a russian-backed "republican" ?
Fri Jun 9, 2017, 12:53 PM
Jun 2017

Not seeing any guts, or any honor from the republicans. They are pissing all over America and America's security.

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