Forecasters predict a 70 percent likelihood of 11 to 17 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 2 to 4 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher). An average season produces 12 named storms of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

looks like we're off with a bang.

choking on coffee

the future victims of these storms are in our thoughts and prayers.

This needs to end.

?fit=scale

Alabama Gov. Bob Riley, left, and Alabama Emergency Management Agency Director Brock Long, discuss hurricane preparations Wednesday May 21, 2008 at the Alabama/Mississippi Hurricane Conference in Mobile, Ala. (AP Photo/Garry Mitchell)

His name is Brock Long. According to the New York Times, he is the vice president of emergency management firm Hagerty Consulting in Illinois. He also has experience at the state level. He was the head of the Alabama Emergency Management Agency from 2008 to 2011.

These are good signs because the most recent FEMA Administrator, Craig Fugate, was extremely effective in his role and brought a wealth of experience with him from his years as Florida's top emergency manager. Fugate is widely seen as the person that helped restore the perception of FEMA as a critical resource of the federal government. The agency had a serious weather related "black eye" after its response to Hurricane Katrina. The FEMA director at that time, Mike Brown (or "Brownie" as called by some), became a household name in a bad way.

I reached out to my friend and colleague, former FEMA administrator Fugate, who told me in a message this morning
"Brock brings both State and FEMA experience to the job. He knows the programs and challenges he faces. He is an Emergency Manager."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2017/04/29/brock-long-is-trumps-nominee-for-fema-administrator-who-is-he/#c8ca0471fbff

Thanks

and thought of you.

Thanks for looking out for us.

Sometimes I love this place.

Me too!

Looks like you're under a red blob!

one to go - just a few heavy squalls where we are but flooding again in some parishes.
It's been serious this year - drought then floods. Sadly we all violate nature's chosen water paths and place homes in what we like to think are former river beds - nature wins every time.

because with a drought, it's initially hard for rain to soak in so if it's heavy, it just runs off and floods (see California this past winter for that scenario). Yup, Mother Nature knows what she's doing.

but we've had really heavy rain last Month and all June so far.
The thing is the mountains are so green and beautiful that sometimes I have to remember that more than a few folks have lost everything and lots of roads and bridges have been destroyed.

All you can do is hope that any systems this season go around the island so that folks can recover.

Hope it was at least good for the coffee crop!

Not good for BM

Hoping for some weather moderation.

straight. A wet spring usually means a milder hurricane season. I hope this holds true for this year as well, but fingers crossed.

After Andrew, every orifice puckers a bit during hurricane season. Got everything prepped and now that I'm retired, I can just get out of dodge if a big one comes... Call it a hurricane vacation and let the insurance company deal with the aftermath.
m

The less energy the Caribbean and Gulf absorb from sunlight, in addition to the influx of cooler rainwater runoff then there's less power for tropical systems to absorb. The system near the Yucatan will lessen chances for development when the Atlantic system reaches this side of The Pond.

We just assumed that the storms stirred up the waters therefore cooling the temperature.

but its effect is more dependent on wind. I was thinking of lower tier systems like tropical storms.

When a strong hurricane comes through, it can send the warmer waters deeper into the ocean and bring the cooler waters upward. Once that storm clears, the surface layer is then heated by the sun and the overall temperature of the ocean -- or in the case of many American interests, the Gulf of Mexico -- raises to pre-hurricane temperatures but it takes a couple of weeks.

The general pattern of oceanic flow is that warmer waters from the equator head toward the poles while colder waters from the poles return to equator. If the ocean temperatures increase, it would stand to reason it could slightly strengthen these overall currents as well.

There's other things involved like evaporation and seasonal variations. Like all things "weather," it's very dynamic.

Blame Obama

Looks like we need another Executive Order to dismantle the National Weather Service and underfund NOAA. Climate Change deniers will see this as "fake news, fake weather".

Or some idiot fundie preacher will blame the LGBT community for Hurricanes.

All we're doing by focusing on them is encouraging them.

That is if he actually appointed and confirmed anyone to those positions yet. Pretty sure they are still vacant. Trumps lackadaisical attitude towards governance is going to put a lot of his supporters in a world of hurt.

I know I should always check the weather this time of year...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/205947.shtml?cone#contents

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT02/refresh/AL022017_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/205947_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Arlene Harvey Ophelia
Bret Irma Philippe
Cindy Jose Rina
Don Katia Sean
Emily Lee Tammy
Franklin Maria Vince
Gert Nate Whitney

we've used Arlene.....look at #4

The Republican family values role model dodged the draft five times, but he can't dodge Hurra Kane.

Hilarious - wonder if that one will head for his Florida resort.

I might believe in a god finally.

My only worry is the folks in the way

Get out of there.

?529802454

After that there is too much error... Got that from watching meteorologist go back and forth and back and forth and back and forth ad nauseam...
m

If any areas are hit.

They sure aren't preparing for actual disaster relief.

Clueless does not quite describe these goons

And earthquakes won't occur.

It's terrifying to think of what Trump's response would be, probably more about enacting civil restrictions and awarding lucrative contracts to rebuild than providing any help or appropriate response.

Themselves from him on policies that don't go over with their own constituencies.

Very important that they are held responsible, both when they acknowledge their support and when they say they don't support but vote for disastrous legislation and appointments anyway.

The way these lunatics have blown up the federal government, we just have to hold our breath across the board.

WTF is going to happen when we are in the thick of it? It's going to be a disaster and we have nobody at the helm. For god's sake, we need an adult here in charge. This is serious. God, I just want to rip his fucking head off.

we may be better off without a director

They do manage to eff up everything they touch.

It's still sitting in the Senate.

We have had thunderstorms every day but 2 for the last 3 weeks.
they have come from Texas and some from the Gulf/Louisiana.

will keep eye out for shifting winds....

Those of us in hurricane alley have to look out for one another.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/windwards-gulf-mexico-watching-two-tropical-waves
Extremely heavy rains may accompany 93L inland

Models agree that 93L is unlikely to become a hurricane, but the system is large and moist and will be capable of producing extremely heavy rain. There remains considerable disagreement on where this potential depression or tropical storm will track. The ECWMF and its ensemble members have been fairly consistent in tracking 93L over or around the Yucatan Peninsula and toward the western Gulf, where it would make landfall in South Texas or Mexico. The 12Z Saturday ECMWF run brings the center near Brownsville on Thursday, most likely as a weak tropical storm.

The GFS has shown less internal consistency, but it has tended to track 93L toward the central Gulf Coast, in response to a more vigorous upper-level trough in the GFS moving through the eastern U.S. The 12Z Saturday run of the GFS brings 93L inland near Mobile, AL, after several days of slow motion just offshore. A slowdown in forward speed would be plausible given the departure of the eastern trough and the weakening of steering currents. If 93L does move as gradually as shown by the GFS, we can expect torrential rains—perhaps 10” to 20”—somewhere along the central Gulf Coast, regardless of whether 93L is a wave, depression, or named storm. Likewise, torrential rain could be expected over South Texas if the ECMWF is correct, although the amounts would probably be less than for the GFS track given that 93L would likely be moving at a more steady clip around the intense dome of high pressure producing record heat in the Southwest U.S.

Starting tonight, we will get regular guidance from the HWRF model for 93L, which should help clarify where the system is heading next week and how strong it might be. Residents along the Caribbean coast of Belize and Mexico, as well as western Cuba, should be prepared for very heavy rainfall over the next 48 hours.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT03/refresh/AL032017_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/173424_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
<snip>
...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM CINDY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 90.5W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 355 MI...565 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* High Island to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of High Island to San Luis Pass

much much more to come, says our radar map.
We already have a lot of water from the past few weeks of rain.
guess I won't have to worry about yard clean up for a week.

That's a major worry

If the European model is right, Texas may be getting a ton of rain and weather

in the past few years

I heard the NWS just a big cahoona computer to keep up with the Euro Wx Svs... Along with the new GOES satellite it should be an interesting season as far as predictions go..... Fingers crossed.
m

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 88.7W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City,
Louisiana, to the Mouth of the Pearl River.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from west of Intracoastal City
to High Island, Texas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Intracoastal City to High Island


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/205153.shtml?cone#content

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT03/refresh/AL032017_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/205153_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png