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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsTPM Marshall's take - "Thoughts on the Disappointing Result Out of Georgia 6."
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/thoughts-on-the-disappointing-result-out-of-georgia-6By JOSH MARSHALL Published JUNE 20, 2017 11:16 PM
Let me share a few thoughts about tonights results out of Georgias 6th district in which Republican Karen Handel has now been projected as the winner.
First, theres no question and there should be no denying that this is a very disappointing loss. It is a very Republican district. It was vacated by HHS Secretary Tom Price who has been a key architect of Trumpcare, which is now readying to scythe its way through the tens of millions of Americans who gained coverage from Obamacare. It was even the seat once held by Newt Gingrich. Taking it from the GOP would have been a big victory both substantively and symbolically. It would also have sent a clear signal that the GOPs House majority is living on borrowed time.
All this being said, this is a heavily Republican district and Republicans just barely held on to the seat. Yes, Democrats gave it everything they had, with small donors from around the country pouring money into the race. But Republican SuperPacs poured millions into the race too. In the last three elections, Tom Price won this seat by 65%, 66% and 62%. A significant part of those almost 2 to 1 margins was due to the fact that Democrats fielded only nominal candidates who raised little or no money. But these are chicken and egg type questions. It is precisely because this is a strongly Republican district that Price drew no serious contenders. A better measure are the recent presidential results. There John McCain won the district by 62% and Mitt Romney won it by 61%. To use yet another measure, 538 rates it a +9.5 Republican district, which means its 9.5 percentage points more GOP than the country as a whole.
The big exception was Donald Trump who won the district but only with 48% of the vote, less than 2 percentage points over Hillary Clinton, even as Price cruised to a smashing victory. That was not terribly surprising. The district is relatively diverse for a GOP district and educated and affluent. In other words, its made up of just the kind of Republicans who proved most resistant to Trump. The question has been whether that Trump unpopularity would apply to a conventional Republican who, by normal standards, is well suited to the district. The answer from tonight seems to be, yes. Ossoff dramatically over-performed and almost won the seat.
snip - read more - but last paragraph
This is a big disappointment. But remember, by any objective measure these races show a Democratic party resurgent and a GOP on the ropes. These seats came open because they were vacated by people Trump picked for cabinet appointments. They got those picks because they came from safe seats. They are by no means a cross section of House seats. The thing to do is learn what we can from coming up just short and move on to the next fight. No one should expect any of this to be easy. If you do, bow out of civic questions and just watch movies and TV. We need people with more endurance.
TupperHappy
(166 posts)If we continue to be morally victorious in these elections with the Republicans, we shall be utterly ruined.
+1
If a hardcore GOPee district votes GOPee, we're ruined? We lost nothing. You cannot lose what you do not have and we did not have this district or the other 3 special election seats.
I don't get all the hand wringing over these special elections that are GOPee strong holds. I would get if these were toss up districts but they aren't. I highly recommend focusing on the majority of American's that don't vote. Trying to convince a GOPee-er to vote Democratic is a waste of time, money and energy. Plus, no amount of showering will remove that stank you pick up when in close proximity to urine soaked GOPee-ers.
spooky3
(34,452 posts)When pundits or guests point out that Trump won by only 1 percentage point, and therefore, Ossoff's loss by more than that margin is troubling, they are overlooking the fact that many Repub-leaning voters who didn't like Trump, or who were more liberatarian, voted libertarian in 2016. Those voters probably supported Handel over Ossoff, who got about the same % of the vote as did Clinton.
It's not especially reassuring, since if this trend occurred all over the country, then a non-Trump Repub. Pres. candidate really might have won by a much bigger margin than he did, if the third party candidates had not run. But it does seem unfair to Ossoff and misleading in analysis to ignore the third parties from 2016 who really didn't play a role in 2017.
sharedvalues
(6,916 posts)(I think our threads crossed)
Josh is doing a good job here.
Stay positive, peeps.
ProudLib72
(17,984 posts)Who gives a flying fuck if we "almost" won? Seriously, our lives depend on winning. Where were our superpacs pouring bazillions into Ossoff? Why didn't we run ads with tRump's words out of context (not that would need to be)?
Still In Wisconsin
(4,450 posts)I'd love to be "on the ropes" like the GOP. Sorry, not drinking the Kool-Aid anymore.
LenaBaby61
(6,974 posts)By the time tRumputin and the GOP are done, they'll be running rough shod ove their voters, who will fall for the "It's Obama's fault" crapola, again. The GOP is the Road Runner, and anybody but the richest 1% are all Wylie Coyotes who voted for tRumputin.
Seriously, I never thought he'd win. That district is very red, and even if tRumputin hasn't destroyed their mostly affluent, well-educated lives YET, he will because that death bill WILL be affecting them too. Oh, and look at West Virginia--many there believe that coal jobs are coming back, that they'll get help with the Opioid massacre taking place there, that THEIR country--per their ruskie-loving messiah--will take this country back to a time when there were sock hops & women wearing poodle skirts, when bottles of Pepsi cost 5 cents, and when minorities had no civil rights, and when they were rarely seen and almost never heard.
IF this death bill passes in the Senate next week, those folks down in WV will not only will be losing their health care, but they'll be getting NO help with the Opioid massacre down there either. I only feel for those who are in red states that didn't vote for tRumputin, but who will have to suffer because of the trump voters.
rpannier
(24,329 posts)But, if it helps him sleep better at night, God speed
kentuck
(111,095 posts)...even though they were not crazy about Trump, they fell in line to vote for their team when they felt challenged and threatened and Democrats cannot beat them at their game of getting out the votes. Money does not equal votes. Democrats need to learn that lesson. They should not nationalize these House races - they should attempt to keep them at the District level.
Democrats need to stop giving these people a reason to vote when they would normally not have a reason to vote. When they make it "our team" against "their team", their team wins in these types of races. This was a winnable race but was lost by falling into the Republican trap.
Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)I tried to warn Chris Bowers about that on MyDD more than a decade ago. He was leading the push to cleanse the party and prioritize every race.
Meanwhile, the other side simply owns the margin for error. That's what the 3/2 nationwide edge of self-identified conservatives over liberals accomplishes. When both sides push and money/energy is involved it's extremely difficult to overcome that 3/2 deficit.
We had a much better chance of holding the House prior to the internet and so much grass roots spotlight on specific races. Now so many of them are like mini-Senate races and therefore the local issues fade and partisan ideology takes over, that "our team" versus "their team" aspect that you accurately described.
Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)And why wouldn't they? Winning provides an incredible surge. They are stomping on one territory after another determined to deflect any criticism or negativity toward Trump while ensuring his agenda has a clear path. They know they have to pounce while controlling all three chambers.
I posted in another thread tonight that the door to door GOP campaign here in Miami is unlike anything I've ever seen. There is a local race involving candidates named Diaz and Perez, etc. Frankly I don't even know what position they are battling for. But every day there are waves of volunteers walking door to door with T-shirts proclaiming, "Conservative Republican..." and so forth. They take no for an answer but that doesn't mean they won't be back the next day and the following day. I've stood on my sidewalk and watched. They don't skip any doors. It is not targeted based on registration. They knock everywhere and leave flyers everywhere.
If that type of thing is being recreated elsewhere then I'm hardly surprised at the results.
KPN
(15,645 posts)With me even at the fairground back in the day. Why would it now. There's no solace in close but not close enough.
DallasNE
(7,403 posts)She was a veteran politician who had already won statewide. She was smart enough to distance herself from Trump in the election and instead saddle Osoff with Nancy Pelosi and it stuck. I don't understand why Pelosi is a problem but she is. Maybe it is a coded message for gay bashing but it seems to work every time. What this election shows more than anything else is how few Republicans look no further than for the (R) behind the candidates name. Republicans will probably gain Senate seats in 2018 and hold on to the House. Performance in office is determined only by that (R) behind the candidates name and that will not change by 2018.
rockfordfile
(8,704 posts)DallasNE
(7,403 posts)That is the point. Running against Pelosi brought them out in droves. Even independents must have broken for Handel. In many ways you can chalk this election result up to Citizens United. The bulk of Handel's campaign was funded by Super-Pac's using dark money. People don't read the labels and know how this slush money buys elections.
gordianot
(15,238 posts)Mention their and you get Rethuglican salivating and loss of reasoning. They threaten primitive white male egos to the point of irrational blathering. I do not condemn either but they elicit a strong response.
Demsrule86
(68,576 posts)points on DU. So we should let the boys take over so as not to threaten Male egos? Ah no.
gordianot
(15,238 posts)As for me I could care less what Republicans GOP says or what they want.
Iplayoneontv
(77 posts)I've worked on a few campaigns and I would have quit hers out of sheer anger. She was really incompent.
DallasNE
(7,403 posts)Stepped in and run the operation down the stretch. And that is when the Super-Pac's flooded the airwaves with anti-Pelosi ads. Osoff had no answer so a 6 point lead ended up being a 5 point loss.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)you know, high property values, a booming tech industry, that kind of thing. Ewwwwwwwww!
skh500
(21 posts)The State of Georgia is solid Diebold voting machines. Thanks to Governor Crist, we democrats in Florida were able to switch to computer voting machines with a paper trail! Dems of GA need to be assured of an accurate count and should work hard to change their situation!!
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)SleeplessinSoCal
(9,120 posts)"No one should expect any of this to be easy. If you do, bow out of civic questions and just watch movies and TV. We need people with more endurance."
Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)
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AndyTiedye
(23,500 posts)The Diebold Republican Electing machines ensure this.