General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWhy do Democrats keep going after the wrong voters?
Hillary Clinton made this mistake during the General Election, and Democrats made the same mistake with Ossoff in GA-6. There is this almost mystical belief that white people with a college education, who are upper middle class should--for some reason--become Democrats. Yet, for the life of me, I cannot think of a single reason why. Because Donald Trump offends their upper middle class white sensibilities?
These are not our people. Look at the Democratic agenda and look at the Republican agenda. Ask yourself which party is better suited to helping this group of people out. What are we literally offering them? We are going to raise their taxes and transfer that money to poor white and black people living in rural and urban areas to increase their standard of living. That is literally the cornerstone of most of our agenda--we take money from rich people and give it to poorer people. We did it in the ACA because we believe that those who are better off ought to help pay for the healthcare of those who are not so well off. We do it with food stamps. We do it with all sorts of welfare programs. When we are not taking their money, we are regulating the businesses they own or help manage, because we believe that dumping toxic shit into the water and the air is wrong, and that ends up hurting their bottom line--making them less rich than they otherwise would be.
Republicans literally want to do the opposite. They want to fuck poor people over, give these people tax breaks, deregulate the fuck out of everything--basically give these people free run of the economy and country. If the Republican healthcare plan passes the Senate and House, and Trump signs it into law will any of these people suffer? Very few, if any. Most of them likely have fantastic health care plans through their employers--better than we could hope to get on the exchanges. Plans which the ACA, by the way, wants to tax to help the aforementioned poor people pay for healthcare.
Once again, these are not our people. We have nothing to offer them. We are literally on the opposite side.
There is a strange belief that if only we moderate our language if only we script ourselves to the point where we say a whole lot of words but actually say a whole lot of nothing--that these people will somehow embrace us. "No! I am not a Nancy Pelosi Democrat! I am a moderate!" A moderate of what? What does a moderate stand for, if anything at all?
One of the main divisions between the parties is that the Republican party is a party of grievance and the Democratic party is the party of ideas. Democrats do not have the luxury like Republicans did with Obama, of running around and simply opposing Donald Trump. Yes, we need to do that--aggressively and hard--but we also have to offer an alternative vision. We need to call bullshit. Take healthcare for example, we need everyone pointing out that Republicans--not just Donald Trump--said that they wanted to fix healthcare so that premiums were lower and it covered everyone. They consistently talked about how Obamacare failed to cover everyone, and how health insurance costs kept rising. The problem that Republicans face is that literally NOTHING they have in their bag of tricks that aligns with their other agenda items will fix those problems. Only Democrats have solutions to them.
Right now, at this very moment, we need Democratic leaders coming out with a "Contract for America" like Newt Gingrich did for Republicans back in the 1990's. Call it "the American Promise" or something. Ten things Democrats want to do if we get back in power, and align those agenda items to be things that the public overwhelmingly supports. They should be things that someone can stand on in a deep red district and have people nodding along. Then we should have people working out the policy details. We should focus on rebuilding our bench by taking back control of states and taking control of the Senate, House, and Presidency by 2020. Once we have that, we should just ram our shit through. Nuke the filibuster if we have too--just cut Republicans out entirely, and pass all our shit within the first 100 days. Have everything drafted and ready to go by the time a Democratic President sits at the desk in the Oval Office. Unify the party in opposition to Trump and the Republicans, unify the party behind the goals of the platform, and then prepare to ram it through once we take power.
We can easily tailor and target a message that will appeal to our base, and target people in poorer and rural areas--because these are the people the party is tailored to represent. We do not represent upper middle class white suburbanites. There is literally no reason for them to vote for us. None. Hell, even if we got lucky by mobilizing anti-Trump sentiment, how the fuck will we hold those seats once Trump is gone? Rallying people to stand against Trump only works so long as Trump is in power. The party needs to stand for something more than that, and we need to appeal to people who are our core constituency--the people who actually benefit from Democratic policies.
Polly Hennessey
(6,797 posts)💯 percent
LovingA2andMI
(7,006 posts)Fresh_Start
(11,330 posts)who are thinking of the future and not concerns with what a women does with her vagina and her uterus.
Meldread
(4,213 posts)We genuinely believe everyone will be better off in the end--including said white upper middle class suburbanites. However, on a purely transactional level our policy is to tax them to help other people.
It is much easier, politically speaking, for us to go to a rural area in West Virginia, Kentucky, or Ohio and talk about building treatment centers and addressing the opioid epidemic, about reforming the way we deal with drugs, to talk to them about giving them financial support to help rebuild their communities, etc. In short, we are taking the money from the rich whites in suburbia and giving it to the poor whites in rural areas. Whether that is in the form of treatment centers for drug addiction, health care, universal Pre-K, universal daycare--you name it. We have to pay for all this somehow, and that money has to come from somewhere, and those rich white suburbanites are not stupid--they know we are going to have to get that money from them.
The truth of the matter is that we cannot represent everyone. In economics, there are always opportunity costs. This leaves us with trying to appeal to their sense of moral decency, and I would not hold my breath. This has been the Democratic strategy for a long time, and it has never worked.
JI7
(89,249 posts)even when it's still a minority of them.
OnDoutside
(19,956 posts)KPN
(15,645 posts)upper middle class"? What constitutes upper middle? Kinda sounds like me, frankly. Really?
I'm almost certainly upper middle class. I'm a college-educated woman. My husband's a college-educated man. We have never been anything but Democrats.
We Dems shouldn't turn ourselves inside out or change who we are in order to court any subset of voters. But don't pretend any subset is monolithic. Don't make assumptions about any group.
Fait Accompli
(40 posts)KT2000
(20,577 posts)I have been thinking the same thing but you said it nicer than what I was thinking.
America is soul sick.
pnwmom
(108,978 posts)Education was the strongest predictor of vote preference.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/education-not-income-predicted-who-would-vote-for-trump/
In short, it appears as though educational levels are the critical factor in predicting shifts in the vote between 2012 and 2016. You can come to that conclusion with a relatively simple analysis, like the one Ive conducted above, or by using fancier methods. In a regression analysis at the county level, for instance, lower-income counties were no more likely to shift to Trump once you control for education levels.11 And although theres more work to be done, these conclusions also appear to hold if you examine the data at a more granular level, like by precinct or among individual voters in panel surveys.
But although this finding is clear in a statistical sense, that doesnt mean the interpretation of it is straightforward. It seems to me that there a number of competing hypotheses that are compatible with this evidence, some of which will be favored by conservatives and some by liberals:
Education levels may be a proxy for cultural hegemony. Academia, the news media and the arts and entertainment sectors are increasingly dominated by people with a liberal, multicultural worldview, and jobs in these sectors also almost always require college degrees. Trumps campaign may have represented a backlash against these cultural elites.
SNIP
Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)I don't know how else to put it. Normally I can identify strategy but at this point I don't think strategy applies. Bottom line we couldn't afford to lose 2016. Imagine the GOP on tilt after losing three straight and if Trump had been the most recent failure. They would be imploding everywhere.
Instead, SAMs are in absolute glory and hysteria. Those are the Simplistic Angry Males who I've battled so often. I post on many sports sites that have political forums. I sampled those forums a few minutes ago. SAMs are gleeful over the Georgia result. One thread after another, mocking Democrats and toasting Trump. I should mention that conservatives generally outnumber liberals at least 8-1 on those sites. Often I'm alone.
And anyone who discounts or downplays kentuck's "our team" vs "their team" summary is a world class idiot. Just sample those sports sites. It's like college football passion in June.
The midterms are hardly a formality. That's the misconception I see so often here. Midterm electorates are typically 51% female compared to roughly 53.5% in presidential years. That really limits our upside.
We need to pick off governorships next year. That should be at least equal priority as the House. I live in Florida. It can't be understated how much damage Rick Scott has done, and via two extremely tight wins with the wind at his back both times.
TrollBuster9090
(5,954 posts)Democrats should not be crafting their message to please a small group of upper middle class professionals. That's a small constituency. They should be crafting their message to please the working class who aspire to have their kids BECOME upper middle class professionals. Transcending the class that you were born into has always been the American dream. Republican policies have consistently made it HARDER for poor and working class people to transcend their economic class; while making it easier for the wealthy to accumulate MORE wealth.
Democrats need to stop trying to please trial lawyers and stock brokers, and start trying to please working class folks who want their kids to grow up to BECOME trial lawyers and stock brokers.
Transcending your economic class was made easier by The New Deal and the Great Society, and HARDER by Reaganomics and Trickle Down Voodoo Economics.
DFW
(54,379 posts)Not all "upper middle class white suburbanites" feel that Republicans represent them. There are those who view gated communities not as privileged enclaves, but rather as glorified jails. As long as our system is set up the way it is, organizations like Emily's List, Greenpeace, the ACLU, the Southern Poverty Law Center, etc etc etc all depend on contributions. The same goes for the Democratic Party. Who makes these contributions, people who can't spare a dollar because they need it to feed their family, or people who can?
Even billionaire Warren Buffet says his taxes are too low. We have nothing to offer him just because he is successful? Nothing? Higher taxes only suck if they are used to feed a bloated, corrupt and self-perpetuating bureaucracy (e.g. Venezuela, Hollande's France). If they are used to improve health care, lessen poverty, bolster education, preserve National Parks and clean up the environment, then they are nothing more than dues to remain in a pretty cool club. Put that way, only the most heartless will remain Republican.
If we are to maintain a big tent, it doesn't seem like a bright idea to declare as enemies, or exclude, the ones who willingly offered to pay for it in the first place.
chwaliszewski
(1,514 posts)Some of the voters have simple needs. If I ran as a Republican for Tom Price's seat in GA and my only answer, no matter the question, was "Abortion is murder and I intend to have Roe v. Wade overturned!", do you think I would get any votes? Damn, skippy I would.
"What do you intend to do about the economy?" "I don't know much about it but abortion is murder, etc." Yep, I would get their votes just by saying that. I'm 100% pro-choice, btw.
My point is that only certain things matter to a lot of voters and they won't be swayed. The results from tonight's election, while disappointing, are certainly not surprising.
Cattledog
(5,914 posts)That is the make up of that district. That's a fact. Ossoff flipped 18% of them to vote Democratic.
In a district held by republicans for 40 years. This was not a failure.
Trumpocalypse
(6,143 posts)We need to be a big tent and not require ideological purity.
LBM20
(1,580 posts)HAB911
(8,892 posts)Orrex
(63,212 posts)PDittie
(8,322 posts)Despite evidence to the contrary, especially in rural, hardscrabble districts:
http://washingtonmonthly.com/2017/06/20/the-ossoff-parnell-lesson-stop-chasing-romney-voters/
PatrickforO
(14,574 posts)I gave money to Ossoff, but we'd have been better off running a populist that had the balls to stick by our agenda - Medicare for all Americans, strengthening Social Security, affordable college, equal pay for women - poll after poll after poll after poll shows that over half of Americans want these things.
WHEN WILL WE BEGIN TALKING ABOUT THEM?
WHEN WILL OUR CANDIDATES OWN THEM?