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DetlefK

(16,423 posts)
Wed Jun 21, 2017, 03:48 AM Jun 2017

Okay, Ossoff lost. But look at the results and tell me the Trump-effect isn't real:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/6/20/1673612/-Democrat-Jon-Ossoff-loses-to-Republican-Karen-Handel-in-closely-watched-Georgia-special-election


-------------

Georgia's 6th Congressional District:
Handel just won it by 52.6-47.4.
A district the Republican is supposed to win by a 10%-margin. Thanks to Trump, that natural advantage has shrunk to 5%.

South Carolina's 5th Congressional District:
Romney won it by 55-44.
Trump won it by 57-39.
The republican candidate has just won it by 51-48.
Thanks to Trump, the republican lead has dropped from 18% to 3%.




And now think of all the districts where it would make a difference if the republican candidate's head-start were 5% smaller.
7 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Okay, Ossoff lost. But look at the results and tell me the Trump-effect isn't real: (Original Post) DetlefK Jun 2017 OP
It is SO hard to flip these DEEP RED districts. Getting so close DOES say a lot. LBM20 Jun 2017 #1
You are darn right. still_one Jun 2017 #2
True. But, when you don't have an incumbent there is some level of vulnerability rpannier Jun 2017 #3
After the NJ Elections this year JustAnotherGen Jun 2017 #4
It's a long game. Mike Niendorff Jun 2017 #5
Yup! But we really need to work on getting people to the polls. longship Jun 2017 #6
The Trump support has not wained yet...2018 may be different. Cattledog Jun 2017 #7

rpannier

(24,329 posts)
3. True. But, when you don't have an incumbent there is some level of vulnerability
Wed Jun 21, 2017, 04:25 AM
Jun 2017

She will have the power of incumbency and the support that goes with it.
With or without trump, that's pretty powerful
Look at Rep David Valadao CA-21. Clinton won his district by 15 points and he was re-elected. CA-39, Clinton by 9, Royce won. And Issa was re-elected (by a slender margin) in 49. Clinton won by 7.

Not saying it's impossible to win them, but let's be honest, red district with incumbency, that's worth 4 or 5% there in a carved district

JustAnotherGen

(31,823 posts)
4. After the NJ Elections this year
Wed Jun 21, 2017, 04:53 AM
Jun 2017

This gives me hope in the 7th.


Clinton won the district - Lance can be eliminated.

Mike Niendorff

(3,461 posts)
5. It's a long game.
Wed Jun 21, 2017, 05:16 AM
Jun 2017

GA-6 will get a rematch in literally *one year* -- and Handel will have actual votes on her record by then.

Ossoff closed a deep red district to only 5 points right out of the gates, with Republicans being forced to pull out every single stop to keep from losing it outright.

This is a GREAT start for 2018, and it's nowhere near the end of the road.

The Dems made a great showing today, and should be proud. 2018 is coming VERY soon, and these were only the safest of the "safe" seats we saw today. Every single one of them should make the Republicans shudder for the next election cycle.

Well done, Dems.

Keep up the great work.


MDN

longship

(40,416 posts)
6. Yup! But we really need to work on getting people to the polls.
Wed Jun 21, 2017, 05:38 AM
Jun 2017

The GOP is acutely aware that high turnout helps Democrats. That's why they do so much to suppress the vote with voter ID laws and other such nonsense.

Our advantage should be to get our people to the polls, no matter what. That's what we should be doing, above all.

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