...thanks, EarlG!

Until then, we still LOST all of them, again.

I would counter the positivist vibe by pointing out that we have the WORST first 4 months of any modern presidency and STILL can't win these districts...we may be at the closest we will EVER get.

Look at those numbers closely...they are NOT trends, where cycle over cycle the gap is closing. They are reflections of the current reality only...namely that even with the worst possible president in imagination, we STILL cannot wrestle away even one in 4. We lost them all.

It is not a day to celebrate getting close...close won't vote on the HealthCare repeal and Tax cut bill. Close won't change a single chairmanship or get a single article of Impeachment before the entire House.

Close is still just another loss.

at least in two of the three districts listed.

MT4: 32, 32, 20, 32, 27, 11, 15, 16, 6

GA6: 60, DNP, 44, 37, 30, 32, 23, 4

YMMV, but I see trends there.

MT4:
32-32-20-32-27 (not a positive trend in any way)
Followed by:
11-15-16-6

And the one we lost by 6, the "winner" actually got caught literally beating up the press the night BEFORE the election...imagine had the roles been reversed...the Dem would have lost by 60 points...the gap narrowed significantly in 2002(?...from 27 to 11), but it was expanding again after that...

Anyway, I don't want to fight about it, I am salty as hell today having to read, hear and see GOP asshats everywhere spiking the football and doing end zone dances again...its really triggering a lot of pent up anger and rage I still have suppressed from November...I think I will go back to yelling at clouds for the rest of the day!

just some commentary that we're getting closer. These were intensely red districts, and a lot of RW resources went to holding them.

While not popping any champagne corks just yet, I think this does bode well for other districts around the country that are not so died in the wool red.

As I said, YMMV.

We're not going to kick butt in deep red districts. Getting this close is a huge deal.

You're right that these are not trends. That's the point. We haven't been getting anywhere near close to victory in any of these districts for years. And you are correct that with the worst four months of any modern presidency we may be at the closest we'll ever get.

But again, that's the point. If these swings are repeated across the country next year, Republicans will be in big trouble.

Edumucation, lol

the Democrats won the 3 special elections leading up to the Nov 2010 debacle.

You make good points

I have nothing helpful to say other than it's probably about to get worse. And there's nothing GOPers hate more than being on the 'losing' side

we are unlikely to start winning. Of course. We aren't allowed to discuss any of the reasons on here. Geez, when my kids acted badly, even unintentionally, I had a duty to correct them. Dems, put duck tape over their mouths and cotton in their ears, so we can't discuss anyway to improve.

Sure, the Republicans stole the election, what's new? Maybe it was a bigger steal this time. We have a Pres under investigation for obstruction, and we just lost 4 big seats. We fucking lost w practically the whole President's staff under investigation, and we are a laughing stock on the world stage. He publicly lies everyother day, and that's probably an understatement. He may get away with it in the US, but the world sees us as idiots, just like him now.

Keep the participation metals.

in 2005 either, right?

...re my last paragraph

The President is un-popular but still popular with Republicans.

You do know these are DEEP RED districts that have voted HEAVILY REPUBLICAN and have HUGE Republican registration advantages right? So please articulate extremely clearly just how we were supposed to so easily flip these VERY VERY DEEP RED districts so easily? We competed hard and made HUGE gains, but they are VERY Republican districts. Please see the MATH here.

we aren't getting better as fast as the Repubs are.
We used to be better than the Repubs at winning
They looked in to what we were doing and got better.

I can't explain how else or what we need to do because it is not allowed in this forum. There is talk about it in the comments of the NYT, WaPo, and sometimes even the Guardian. Serious, good discussions in those places. Of couse, you can always read the not so smart screaming all over the web, but it isn't helpful.

quit being a negative Nancy.

Please imagine you were running in a district that has voted HEAVY REPUBLICAN for DECADES and has a MASSIVE REPUBLICAN REGISTRATION ADVANTAGE and tell us just exactly and precisely how YOU would run to win that district? Because that is just what we have been up against in all of these special elections. We have made BIG GAINS but such districts are VERY hard to win. Please prove otherwise. How would YOU have won?

They would run away from the majority of the Democratic party to please the Republican voters. (and no, that doesn't make sense to me either)

done in that short period...which will last 30 years. That's assuming that we win too. Plus, he would still be Prez. So far, that's not happening!

Reps.

Until we actually start taking seats away from the Republicans, it doesn't matter how close the election is.

The essential rule is that all you need is 50% of the vote plus one. Then you win. Until then we've still lost. The Republicans are still in the majority, and most of them in Congress are amoral monsters who don't actually care about real people.

Even if we'd won these three seats the GOP would still be in control of Congress so really what's the point?



Seriously though, do you really expect Democrats to waltz into deep red districts and walk out with a win? Again, look at those historical average margins of victory: 23 points. 30 points. 38 points. We cut those to 6, 7, and 4. But we didn't win them, so all is lost? I don't think so.

Even before 2017. Yes, we loose, but that won't continue to happen.

Not loose, lose.

No matter how you slice it and dice it, things do not look good.

For quite a while now I've been reading that demographics are all in our favor. We still lose. Trump is still in office, still doing as much damage as he can. Republican leadership supports him.

And a remarkable number of people have bought into the total crap the Republicans have been preaching ever since Reagan: low taxes good, no taxes better. Poor people deserve to be poor. Rich people shouldn't have to pay taxes. Infrastructure? We don't need no stinking infrastructure!

They see absolutely no connection between who they vote for and the bad things that happen. They manage to continue to blame Democrats for everything. Not entirely sure why Democrats do such a lousy job of countering all this, but they do.

The trend is clearly moving toward blue. I saw that happen in Orange County Florida. Took 20 years but the area is solidly blue today from red.

Until then, Red Rules. Goddammit.

but also a reminder of lost opportunities - especially Montana & Kansas.

Losing by 23 points is still an ass trouncing. Losing by 16 points is still an ass trouncing.

What have we become as Democrats at this point, the Bad News Bears...seeing the fact that we lost the game by 32 runs instead of 60 as some kind of victory? Sorry, but we need to be aiming a bit higher than this if we ever hope to unfuck this country.

But still lost 63 seats in 2010. If the republicans overreach like they seem to be doing, 2018 will turn into a disaster for them. As for us, we need to work on our mindset and start voting in every election and voting early where that option is available so that our vote get recorded and we don't come down to one hit or miss day.

It was practically a mirror image of this year. Between March 31, 2009 and May 18, 2010 there were 7 special House elections, and Democrats won all of them. They were: NY 20 (Gillibrand's seat); Illinois 5 (Rahm Emmanuel's seat); California 32 (Hilda Solis's seat); California 10 (Ellen Tauscher's seat); NY 23 (John McHugh's seat - flipped from R to D); Florida 19 (Robert Wexler's seat); Pennsylvania 12 (Murtha's seat). Dems won all of these - replacing the prior Dem in all but NY 23. So Republicans didn't win any of those blue seats, either, and still ended up shellacking us in November 2010!

There were a couple more in 2010: Hawaii 1st, that weird election where everyone was on the same ballot and a Republican slipped in and won (and subsequently lost in Nov. 2010), and Georgia 9 after Nathan Deal resigned to run for governor (replaced by another Republican). So Dems won 7 out of 9, and would have won in Hawaii were it not for that weird jungle election.

Special elections are no indicators of general election success!

I'm saying that these results are a harbinger of bad news for Republicans in elections yet to come.

Put it this way: if a Dem squeaked out a narrow special election victory in a deep blue district which we'd been winning by 20+ points for the last couple of decades, and we had to throw millions and millions of dollars at that race in order to win, would you be celebrating, or would you be worrying about what that might mean for upcoming races in not-so-blue districts?

Now is the time to press the attack, not throw up our hands and say "meh."

Republicans out. And I understand the frustration at not being able to flip any of these districts--I'm frustrated too--but I'm also realistic. What we need to concentrate on in 2018 are those districts that aren't deep red, but light red & purple. We may not be able to flip 70-80 seats, but 40 is certainly doable & will be enough to give us the majority.

I'll admit that I'm still traumatized as hell from the 2016 election, but I've gotten my fight back & I'm not about to give up. I think a huge issue will be if Republicans manage to destroy the ACA. The anger will be palpable & enough to bring voters out in droves.

The DNC didn't even go in anywhere until Rachel Maddow started calling them out. The Dems were left to heroically struggle with state and local support.
Sure, most of us from everywhere pitched in to help the candidates. I'll continue to do that from afar.

The historical arc of progressive change is incremental. Anything else freak people out and cause them to become negatively reactionary. Democrats and Democratic leaning businesspeople need to focus on running moderate campaigns in red districts, winning, then bringing economic growth to the district that bring in younger people. Like the Orlando region and Tampa region in my state of Florida, red districts can be turned blue by a booming economy that bring in younger residents.

Republicans now know they will win deep red districts, so they can concentrate on
light red districts. If they see we're not spending our bankroll on deep red, they will
go light on them.

Enough with the doom and gloom. The Dems weren't even supposed to be in the running and yet somehow we managed to force the gop to spend a ton of cash defending seats that should have been easy strolls...

I think this makes 2018 look more and more possible for a House victory, especially if Twitler is still in office and the rethugs throw 23 million people off healthcare...

This is what the smart analysts are saying today.

And I would not expect to wake up some morning and find that Trump has turned into some competent statesman...

As far as the actual seat goes.

How about 2020?

Do you have a link to check other districts? I'm curious to see some of the districts here in Texas in preparation for 2018.

We were saying the same thing last year before November.

The Circular firing squad needs to end.