Lagging regions Trump regions

I grew up in what a specialist in development economics might call a lagging region. My mother had a comment about it: “The trouble with this area is that everyone who has any get up and go has gotten up and gone.” As soon as I could, I got up and went. I can’t cite studies, but I’m pretty sure that Trump’s votes came more than proportionally from lagging regions.

Economists tell us that “labor mobility” favors both efficiency and growth, moving the people to where the jobs are. But economists don’t take into account the subjective costs of labor mobility – many people just want to stay close to home, and expect the jobs to come to them. Can the Democratic party bring them into the tent? Here are some thoughts on that.

1) They vote against their economic interests. After all, these lagging regions are the ones that are most dependent on “liberal” programs.

Yes, they do. They vote their resentments, and they resent being dependent on the transfer programs. And while resentment is never a pretty or admirable motive, it is understandable. They want to be rewarded for contributions to the economy, not compensated for what may seem to be their deficiencies.

2) They don’t see many immigrants, nor do they compete with them.

The reason is clear enough. International migrants, like domestic ones, go where the opportunities are, not where they do not. Immigrants compete with Americans in places where there are plenty of jobs, but these jobs are not available in any case to people in the lagging regions. But, conversely, the lagging regions don’t have much to lose from limiting immigration (except for braceros) and the suffering that results is not imposed on people they know.

3) Will the market solve the problem?

Pretty clearly the answer is no. The market, with its basis in labor mobility, is the source of the problem.

4) Where will this lead?

The problem is not limited to the US – similar divisions destroyed Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia, and Brexit and alt-right movements in other European countries have the same root. So long as our political system gives political power to square miles, rather than people, lagging regions will continue to have disproportionate influence in our politics, and in any case the prospect seems to be for increasing disunity.

5) Could we encourage policies that shift the jobs where the people are?

Perhaps. Public initiatives to bring high-speed internet services to rural areas could help. Jobs that have been outsourced to Bangalore might instead be outsourced to Coushatta or Plain Dealing. But even then, the wages are likely to be more costly. A more promising, but far more complicated approach would be public support for projects that combine training and temporary wage subsidies and that produce products and services that are exported, if not to other countries then to leading regions of our economy. But there are some clear pitfalls, and opportunities for political patronage and corruption would be problematic.