He either flips, takes an appointment or is defeated.

There's three times more democrats up for election compared to republicans.

NY is not going to elect an R for Senate.

2 of which may primary her, along with the former ambassador of Japan, The mayor of NYC, and the Gov of NY, and the former mayor of NYC.

She has trouble.

Those Dems are in Reddish districts. And Kennedy hasn't announced. She will do fine in the Dem primary.
And the Dems will hold the seat in the general no matter what.

So not a guarantee in the slightest.

Warren is going to win.

And people saying it's a given that she'll win isn't the best way to go about it either. She has a fight ahead of her to convince a lot of voters that she's not just out promoting herself and is actively working to represent the state. A lot of the problem is that the national media focuses on her and those causes and little of what she does for MA registers locally. So it's not going to be an easy run.

An incumbent politician promoting him or herself over their constituents does not make them vulnerable to defeat. If that was the case every incumbent politician regardless or political party will be vulnerable to defeat. When was the last time a Democratic Incumbent US Senator from MA lost re-election or faced a tough re-election campaign but won by a single digit margin?
1996-Kerry-D won re-election over Weld-R by a 7.5 percent margin. Weld-R was and is more popular than the Republicans who are planning to challenge Warren-D. Warren-D is not vulnerable.

I've been voting dem in MA since 1989. I've voted for Warren, Kennedy, Markey, etc. But if we're not able to say "whoa, let's not be overconfident, things are going to be tougher than some think it's gonna be" and be called out as a troll?

Having seen far more people go for Trump in my town than I ever expected, and to have it actually become the Trump MA headquarters, was fucking horrifying.

Well, fuck that noise.

I'm a fucking proud goddam MA liberal. I'm not a troll. I'm not a republican. And I frankly despise your insinuation of such.

I believe that you are from a town that voted for Baker-R in the 2014 MA Governors Race. If there is a town in MA that voted for Coakley-D in the 2014 MA Governors Race voted for Trump in 2016, then you can say some areas in MA is trending Republican.
Being overconfident is believing that Warren-D will win re-election with over 60 percent of the popular not that Warren-D will win re-election. Warren's floor is a 54 percent and Warren's ceiling is at 59 percent.

He is a fantastic Senator, and though I am not from Ohio, I know he consistently puts the interests of the public above corporations.

I think we take Nevada... not sure about Arizona. I think that one that is trending Democratic, which is why Flake is running away from Herr Trump. However, I'm not sure if enough Independents will vote for the Democrat. I certainly hope so.

Brown-D vs Mandel-R matchup is a rematch. When was the last time a losing candidate won a rematch?