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TheMastersNemesis

(10,602 posts)
Thu Aug 31, 2017, 11:44 PM Aug 2017

Yikes - Europeans Model Has Irma Heading Into Gulf Region.

Even though it is still very early for Hurricane Irma to know its path for sure. American models have it veering north. But the European model projects a more southward path that would take it into the gulf region.

What is most worrisome about this storm is that it progressed from a tropical depression to a category 3 hurricane faster than any storm ever before. Weather scientists were surprised by its sudden strengthening.

Let's hope that model is wrong.

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Yikes - Europeans Model Has Irma Heading Into Gulf Region. (Original Post) TheMastersNemesis Aug 2017 OP
Not good at all. Glimmer of Hope Aug 2017 #1
and the european model also predicted shanny Aug 2017 #2
That Fact Is Certainly Most Bothersome. TheMastersNemesis Aug 2017 #4
Murphy's law. roamer65 Aug 2017 #3
Most models over at Weather Underground Warpy Aug 2017 #5
That's the GFS composite B2G Sep 2017 #7
Ouch. I have a lot of friends there Warpy Sep 2017 #8
Yep B2G Sep 2017 #10
Oh, no! I've paid for a tour of CC and the islands 9/05--9/10! WinkyDink Sep 2017 #17
Might be a damp and/or windy one Warpy Sep 2017 #20
Euro Modeling seems to be more Wellstone ruled Aug 2017 #6
It is definitely more accurate. This has been proven. BigmanPigman Sep 2017 #9
Understand the Euro Sats have several times the Wellstone ruled Sep 2017 #11
With both Dept of Science, Environment and Energy being stripped or censored too, BigmanPigman Sep 2017 #13
Appears so to be. Wellstone ruled Sep 2017 #16
If it comes into the gulf I'm leaving town EARLY TexasBushwhacker Sep 2017 #12
European can't be most accurate every time Awsi Dooger Sep 2017 #14
Maybe Trump will swing into action if it appears Mar a Largo is threatened. jalan48 Sep 2017 #15
Yikes...there is a nasty high centered around the Bahamas - that could steer it into the GOM. LeftInTX Sep 2017 #18
There is a cold front coming in next week. Demtexan Sep 2017 #19
 

TheMastersNemesis

(10,602 posts)
4. That Fact Is Certainly Most Bothersome.
Thu Aug 31, 2017, 11:50 PM
Aug 2017

Another hurricane entering the gulf area is so not thinkable.

Warpy

(111,274 posts)
5. Most models over at Weather Underground
Thu Aug 31, 2017, 11:59 PM
Aug 2017

have the damned thing turning sharply north, eventually going out to sea.

Good. We need a break.

Warpy

(111,274 posts)
8. Ouch. I have a lot of friends there
Fri Sep 1, 2017, 12:18 AM
Sep 2017

And if it misses the Cape, it'll hit the Maritimes. Have friends there, too.

At least if your ocean front house gets lost to beach erosion and storms on Cape Cod, you have to rebuild somewhere else, farther inland. That's one thing the state did right.

 

B2G

(9,766 posts)
10. Yep
Fri Sep 1, 2017, 12:32 AM
Sep 2017

Right now the GFS and Euro are worlds apart. I'm guessing split the difference and the east coast of FL and the Carolinas will have a lot to worry about.

Warpy

(111,274 posts)
20. Might be a damp and/or windy one
Fri Sep 1, 2017, 01:54 PM
Sep 2017

but that's actually par for the course in September. It's on a major storm track and nor'easters can often be as strong as Cat 1 hurricanes. If Irma gets there, she'll lose a lot of her punch before she does, the warm Gulf Stream goes out to sea off the Outer Banks of NC and hurricanes drop a category or three over the cold water, depending on how fast they're moving.

Still, I have great slides taken after they've hit, mostly of yachts piled up on bridges because the owners didn't bother to come down and rig them for storm tides. Not only were their boats wrecked, they got hefty bills from the harbormaster for any damage they did.

 

Wellstone ruled

(34,661 posts)
6. Euro Modeling seems to be more
Thu Aug 31, 2017, 11:59 PM
Aug 2017

accurate. Remember a few months ago,a new Sat was launched to be stationed over the South West. And it was to take a few months before all the links were to be operational.

 

Wellstone ruled

(34,661 posts)
11. Understand the Euro Sats have several times the
Fri Sep 1, 2017, 12:44 AM
Sep 2017

computing power compared to ours. Every since NOAA was stripped of the Old Weather Channel to a private owner,we have become a second rate Weather forecasting nation. Yup,got to privatize the Weather Forecaster.

BigmanPigman

(51,609 posts)
13. With both Dept of Science, Environment and Energy being stripped or censored too,
Fri Sep 1, 2017, 12:57 AM
Sep 2017

we will rely on other countries' research and data more than ever.

TexasBushwhacker

(20,202 posts)
12. If it comes into the gulf I'm leaving town EARLY
Fri Sep 1, 2017, 12:46 AM
Sep 2017

I don't care if I don't have a job to return to. It's supposed to be Cat 4 by Monday.

 

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)
14. European can't be most accurate every time
Fri Sep 1, 2017, 01:11 AM
Sep 2017

As a Miamian that's what I'm banking on.

Head north young storm

LeftInTX

(25,372 posts)
18. Yikes...there is a nasty high centered around the Bahamas - that could steer it into the GOM.
Fri Sep 1, 2017, 01:55 AM
Sep 2017

Of course, the longer it tracks south the more likely it will enter the GOM. If the high moves or erodes the storm could move north earlier. 72 hours is a long time from now, things change. It will only be at 50 W longitude on Sunday night.

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