General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsBest sites for Euro forecast re: hurricanes?
The Euro model has been so much more accurate with both Harvey and Irma.
I'm constantly searching for it, trying to find it within the composite spaghetti models.
Is there one site which breaks out the Euro model so I can track that for Maria?
Thanks.
B2G
(9,766 posts)You can see other model runs here as well.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017091800&fh=150&xpos=0&ypos=0
Amishman
(5,557 posts)Full access to the model results is expensive and tightly controlled
The euro is better than the others but it is good to consult multiple models.
ibeplato
(66 posts)DrDan
(20,411 posts)freemay20
(243 posts)If so, that's very helpful and will be my go-to spot. Thanks much.
DrDan
(20,411 posts)malaise
(269,054 posts)Jeff Masters and Bob Henson
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/rapidly-intensifying-maria-hitting-leeward-islands-jose-headed-north
The comments section posts a lot of Euro updates
freemay20
(243 posts)clutterbox1830
(395 posts)ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (aka European Model)
GFS - Global Forecast System (aka American Model)
NAM - North American Mesoscale Model
NutmegYankee
(16,199 posts)Unlike the US models, the euro model (ECMWF) has a licensing agreement and cannot be shown on NWS products. It's a fee for service product. Some website will provide data from it, like tropicaltidbits.com.
The ECMWF has a history of higher accuracy because it has a finer mesh scale than the GFS (Global Forecasting System - US Model) and produces a result every 12 hours. The GFS runs every 6 hours (4 outputs a day) and the mesh is not as fine, but has an advantage in being able to better forecast events like snow storms and such that are quick to form and quick to dissipate.
Baclava
(12,047 posts)Euro has been a little better lately
Dr Jeff Masters:
So which is the best? The best forecasts are made by combining the forecasts from three or more models into a "consensus" forecast. Over the past decade, NHC has greatly improved their forecasts by relying on consensus forecast models made using various combinations of the GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET, HWRF, and ECMWF models
A summary of the top six models:
(Euro) ECMWF: The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) model is the premier global model in the world for medium range weather forecasting in the mid-latitudes.
GFS: The Global Forecast System model run by the NWS.
GFDL: The NWS/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model. The GFDL and HWRF models are the only models that provide specific intensity forecasts of hurricanes.
UKMET: The United Kingdom Met Office model. Data from this model is restricted from being redistributed according to international agreement, and graphics from the UKMET are difficult to find on the web. Only paying subscribers are supposed to have access to the data.
HWRF: The NWS/Hurricane Weather Research Model. HWRF is a non-hydrostatic a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, will utilize highly advanced physics of the atmosphere, ocean and waves in one prediction system, providing unparalleled understanding of the science of tropical cyclone evolution. Its output gives meteorologists an analysis of the hurricane in three-dimensions from real-time airborne Doppler radar. It will make use of a wide variety of observations from satellites, data buoys, and hurricane hunter aircraft. No other hurricane model accesses this wide of a range of meteorological information.
The GFDL and HWRF models are the only models that provide specific intensity forecasts of hurricanes.
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/models.asp
ananda
(28,866 posts)USA models aren't nearly as accurate as the European.
NutmegYankee
(16,199 posts)The Euro has a better record of catching changes far out in the time scale, but the 48 hour and less results often only differ by tens of miles. Main reason for the higher accuracy of the euro model is it has a finer mesh and provides output every 12 hours. The US model was designed to deliver results every 6 hours, which is more useful for forecasting mid latitude cyclones like a nor'easter. The US model could be made finer, but we put more value on results every 6 hours.