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freemay20

(243 posts)
Mon Sep 18, 2017, 12:07 PM Sep 2017

Best sites for Euro forecast re: hurricanes?

The Euro model has been so much more accurate with both Harvey and Irma.

I'm constantly searching for it, trying to find it within the composite spaghetti models.

Is there one site which breaks out the Euro model so I can track that for Maria?

Thanks.

13 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Best sites for Euro forecast re: hurricanes? (Original Post) freemay20 Sep 2017 OP
Tropical Tibits is good B2G Sep 2017 #1
The folks who own the Euro model do not make as much available for free as the other models Amishman Sep 2017 #2
Reddit ibeplato Sep 2017 #3
here is where I look - both GFS and European DrDan Sep 2017 #4
Do they tend to keep updating the same article? freemay20 Sep 2017 #7
yes they do DrDan Sep 2017 #13
I like Weather Underground malaise Sep 2017 #5
THANKS, Everyone. :) n/t freemay20 Sep 2017 #6
Here is the Worldwide animated/interactive weather map I used. clutterbox1830 Sep 2017 #8
You won't see it in spaghetti models. NutmegYankee Sep 2017 #9
Don't trust any one model completely, especially this far out Baclava Sep 2017 #10
Maddow's meteorologist Cairns pointed this out with Irma. ananda Sep 2017 #11
Actually, the results are often similar. NutmegYankee Sep 2017 #12

Amishman

(5,557 posts)
2. The folks who own the Euro model do not make as much available for free as the other models
Mon Sep 18, 2017, 12:45 PM
Sep 2017

Full access to the model results is expensive and tightly controlled

The euro is better than the others but it is good to consult multiple models.

freemay20

(243 posts)
7. Do they tend to keep updating the same article?
Mon Sep 18, 2017, 01:48 PM
Sep 2017

If so, that's very helpful and will be my go-to spot. Thanks much.

clutterbox1830

(395 posts)
8. Here is the Worldwide animated/interactive weather map I used.
Mon Sep 18, 2017, 01:52 PM
Sep 2017
https://www.windy.com

ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (aka European Model)
GFS - Global Forecast System (aka American Model)
NAM - North American Mesoscale Model

NutmegYankee

(16,199 posts)
9. You won't see it in spaghetti models.
Mon Sep 18, 2017, 02:07 PM
Sep 2017

Unlike the US models, the euro model (ECMWF) has a licensing agreement and cannot be shown on NWS products. It's a fee for service product. Some website will provide data from it, like tropicaltidbits.com.

The ECMWF has a history of higher accuracy because it has a finer mesh scale than the GFS (Global Forecasting System - US Model) and produces a result every 12 hours. The GFS runs every 6 hours (4 outputs a day) and the mesh is not as fine, but has an advantage in being able to better forecast events like snow storms and such that are quick to form and quick to dissipate.

 

Baclava

(12,047 posts)
10. Don't trust any one model completely, especially this far out
Mon Sep 18, 2017, 02:13 PM
Sep 2017

Euro has been a little better lately

Dr Jeff Masters:

So which is the best? The best forecasts are made by combining the forecasts from three or more models into a "consensus" forecast. Over the past decade, NHC has greatly improved their forecasts by relying on consensus forecast models made using various combinations of the GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET, HWRF, and ECMWF models

A summary of the top six models:

(Euro) ECMWF: The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) model is the premier global model in the world for medium range weather forecasting in the mid-latitudes.

GFS: The Global Forecast System model run by the NWS.

GFDL: The NWS/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model. The GFDL and HWRF models are the only models that provide specific intensity forecasts of hurricanes.

UKMET: The United Kingdom Met Office model. Data from this model is restricted from being redistributed according to international agreement, and graphics from the UKMET are difficult to find on the web. Only paying subscribers are supposed to have access to the data.

HWRF: The NWS/Hurricane Weather Research Model. HWRF is a non-hydrostatic a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, will utilize highly advanced physics of the atmosphere, ocean and waves in one prediction system, providing unparalleled understanding of the science of tropical cyclone evolution. Its output gives meteorologists an analysis of the hurricane in three-dimensions from real-time airborne Doppler radar. It will make use of a wide variety of observations from satellites, data buoys, and hurricane hunter aircraft. No other hurricane model accesses this wide of a range of meteorological information.

The GFDL and HWRF models are the only models that provide specific intensity forecasts of hurricanes.

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/models.asp


ananda

(28,866 posts)
11. Maddow's meteorologist Cairns pointed this out with Irma.
Mon Sep 18, 2017, 02:14 PM
Sep 2017

USA models aren't nearly as accurate as the European.

NutmegYankee

(16,199 posts)
12. Actually, the results are often similar.
Mon Sep 18, 2017, 02:49 PM
Sep 2017

The Euro has a better record of catching changes far out in the time scale, but the 48 hour and less results often only differ by tens of miles. Main reason for the higher accuracy of the euro model is it has a finer mesh and provides output every 12 hours. The US model was designed to deliver results every 6 hours, which is more useful for forecasting mid latitude cyclones like a nor'easter. The US model could be made finer, but we put more value on results every 6 hours.

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