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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsTheres little historical evidence that tax cuts actually pay off in boosting economic growth
WASHINGTON President Donald Trump and congressional Republicans talk about their tax overhaul plan as if its a sure-fire bet for the economy.
Far from it. Theres little historical evidence that tax cuts actually pay off in boosting economic growth long-term.
And todays combination of high federal debt and a tight labor market casts even more doubt on whether tax cuts will stimulate growth.
The heart of the GOP strategy is big tax savings for corporations and other businesses. Slashing taxes on companies large and small, the theory goes, will bring massive new investment in plants and equipment, job growth and higher pay for Americas long-suffering middle class.
Specifically, Trump administration officials predict that their tax plan will push U.S. economic growth to 3 percent per year from the 2 percent annual average that economists expect for the foreseeable future. The higher growth, officials say, would help create 12 million new jobs over the next decade.
To achieve those goals, however, Trumps tax scheme will have to succeed where Republican as well as Democratic presidents before him have failed.
To bolster its case, the White House last month cited President Ronald Reagans massive cuts in 1986 and the effect they had over the following 10 years. Yet U.S. economic growth, as well as gains in jobs and income per person, was actually stronger in the decade before the Reagan tax change.
https://www.heraldnet.com/business/tax-cuts-wont-generate-as-much-economic-growth-as-trump-says/?utm_source=DAILY+HERALD&utm_campaign=ea72670796-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_d81d073bb4-ea72670796-228635337
HopeAgain
(4,407 posts)Speaking of Republican economics...
Kaleva
(36,307 posts)The Genealogist
(4,723 posts)I think it is clear after over 35 years of this that these tax cuts make the rich richer and that is about it.
unblock
(52,243 posts)They only change how profitable it is. Therefore, it actually doesn't affect many economic decisions.
It may affect decisions where there's an alternative that could be taxed at a different rate, it might become worthwhile to stop investing in tax-free municipal bonds and switch to taxable bonds, which could affect the economy.
But these are comparatively small effects compared to the huge redistributive effect.
TheDebbieDee
(11,119 posts)The republicans drag this meme out every election cycle to boost their campaign funds from donors who would directly benefit from the tax cuts from the wealthy.
As for those working-class voters? They buy into meme that the poors are living off their hard-earned tax dollars so the working-class are fine that the poors are suffering and doing with less. The working-class are too busy hating the poors to notice that they never benefit from "Trickle-Down"...
Cicada
(4,533 posts)Many economists view the economy as super rational. They think economic decisions discount lower current taxes against the corresponding drag from higher taxes later. Tax rates determine when we pay for government spending, now vs later, so a current tax cut isnt really a reduction in costs. It just changes when the cost of taxes kick in.
spanone
(135,841 posts)ProfessorGAC
(65,057 posts)Little? There's is absolutely no evidence. Even in the "tax cut halcyon days" of the 80's, the economic stimulus was borrowing a trillion dollars to spend on defense contractors. When the economy was only about 6 trillion, that's 16.6% over 7 years, excluding the velocity of money which nearly tripled that. The equivalent of spending 60% of GDP which would look like 5.96% nominal growth. Take away inflation which averaged 4% (when including energy inflation) and it's 1.96% real growth in 7 years. The debt load increase negated any macroeconomic value.
So, not only is there "little" evidence that tax cuts boost economic growth, there is AMPLE evidence that the opposite is true. They do nothing, and more than likely, hurt economic growth.