Given the geopolitical importance of Syria, along with its stockpile of chemcial weapons (yes, unlike Iraq, Syria really does have chemical weapons), outside powers--Iran, Israel, Russia, the US, Turkey, etc.--will no doubt be meddling and taking sides, fostering on-going conflict.

many sides will try to fill.

Assad is just another piece in the game at this point.

That was timed for the benefit of the Russians and the Chinese vote at the UN, who didn't take the bait.

Assad's personal fate doesn't really matter, anyway, because the second the Ba'ath Party loses control over the Syrian Army, the Alawite (Sh'ia) minority know their collective gooses are cooked. Genocide. So, they'll keep fighting on for a long time.

This isn't just about one petty dictator - it's part of a long-running regional religious war that's being orchestrated by regional powers looking to expand their own realms, such as the Saudis, the Turks, Iran (and us, and the Israelis (quietly)). It's amazing how few Americans seem to understand the destabilizing effect that the dismemberment of Iraq and now Syria is having.

at this point.

Leon Panetta is right. The situation has already become "uncontrollable".

I suspect he will flee, particularly after seeing what happened to Qaddhafi Duck.

I give him 30 days, probably less.

Minority group rulers are always particularly vulnerable - like the white government in South Africa and Saddam in Iraq. The groups they represent know they retain power through force and terror and fear that as a minority they will suffer if and when representatives of the majority come to power.

Whites in South Africa were fortunate to reach a negotiated turnover of power to the black majority and that there was a leader like Nelson Mandela to negotiate with and to lead the transition. While they held on to power decades longer than justified, cooler heads eventually prevailed and they did not resist black majority rule to the bitter end of a violent fight to the finish.

I expect that Assad's forces will crank it up now. Many, many people will die. And nobody knows where it ends.

...when the Russians and Chinese are willing to throw in the towel. Tunisia and Egypt, both Western backed dictators...gone. Libya...starting to appease the West...dead dictator.

Syria....Eastern backed dictator. They may try to prop him up for some time to show other dictators that if you go with them, you won't be abandoned like Western supported dictators.

Leaving his supporters to fend for themselves in the aftermath.